12月26日，由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"在北京举行。本次年会以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题，来自政、商、学、研等领域的100多位嘉宾、 500余家金融机构和上市公司齐聚一堂，共赴这场思想盛宴。 第二，虚拟货币，特别是数字货币加速膨胀。美国把数字货币列为战略性储备资源，这对全球的货币体系、金融体系都将是重大的挑战。 第三，中国股市已经形成了一个慢牛趋势，但美国的股市泡沫正在加速堆积，去年已经突破经济学家所讲的38000点魔咒。 第四，金融衍生品存在的潜在风险可能在某一时点或在其他金融因素叠加下产生破裂。当下，全球159个国家已经进入去美元化浪潮，美国推出稳定币与美 元进行挂钩，以对抗去美元化浪潮。国际货币体系将会发生重大调整和变化。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 在本次大会上，中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任、原总经济师陈文玲谈及了2026年乃至"十五五"期间，我们将会面临哪些国际上的"灰犀牛""黑天 鹅"等不确定事件，以及分析这类事件将会对我国经济乃至全球经济产生的冲击及影响。 陈文玲重点提及七大国际方面的风险，包括一些国家经济泡沫破裂的风险；全球货币体系 ...

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Observation" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is digesting differences through fluctuations after the landing of macro hot - spots. Gold and silver are expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and its fundamentals do not support a deep correction. The market needs to correct the "expectation - reality" pricing of macro hot - spot events and digest the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. [1][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Precious Metals Observation - **Price Fluctuation**: Precious metals fluctuated around the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's October interest - rate decision. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions in the first half of the week led to a decline in the safe - haven appeal of precious metals, triggering technical selling. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the decision to stop shrinking the balance sheet in December, the precious metals prices stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. [3] - **Fed's October Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. The market has fully priced in the October interest - rate cut, and the focus is on the subsequent interest - rate cut path. It is considered that the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates in December due to factors such as the cooling of the US employment market and the approaching of PCE to the target. Before the end of the data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December may fluctuate repeatedly. [3][4][6] - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a series of practical achievements and setting a one - year tactical easing period for Sino - US economic and trade relations. This will reduce the short - term volatility in the market caused by trade issues, but structural contradictions still exist, and future games will focus more on the fields of technology and security. [7][8] - **China's Gold Tax New Policy**: The new policy mainly affects institutional and corporate participants in the physical gold extraction (out - of - warehouse) link in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, without adding new taxes or increasing the tax burden on individuals. Its purposes include cracking down on tax arbitrage, strengthening compliance operations, and guiding the market direction. The impact on the domestic gold price is limited. [9][10][11] - **Strategies**: Gold and silver are both expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and the current adjustment may provide a good opportunity for layout after stabilization. It is recommended to pay attention to the US Supreme Court's tariff judgment at the beginning of November and the series of macro data after the US government resumes. [12][13] 2. Operating Logic and Views - **Medium - and Long - Term Logic**: In the context of the adjustment and reshaping of the global monetary system and high macro uncertainties, gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages due to factors such as the shaking of the US dollar's reserve currency status, high inflation expectations, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. [14] - **Short - Term Logic**: The one - year buffer period of Sino - US trade negotiations reduces short - term market volatility; the US government shutdown increases market concerns about the US economy; the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the possibility of a December cut make gold more attractive in a low - interest - rate environment; and geopolitical conflicts such as those in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela still exist. [14] - **Views and Strategies**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the current adjustment is a short - term phenomenon. The market needs to digest the impact of macro events and Fed's policies. [14][15] 3. Important Data and Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to US Treasury bond interest rates, the relationship between US Treasury bond real yields and gold prices, precious metal ratios (such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio), and precious metal inventories and ETF holdings. [17][21][28][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in global monetary reserves, with gold's share rising to 30% and the dollar's share declining from 43% to 40%, indicating a profound transformation in the global monetary system [2] - The World Gold Council projects that global central banks will purchase a net total of 1,136 tons of gold in 2024, with emerging markets accounting for over 70% of this demand, as these countries seek to create a "safety cushion" for their currencies [2] - The average global inflation rate exceeded 6% in the first half of 2025, while the spot price of gold in London rose by 22% year-on-year, reinforcing gold's role as an inflation hedge [4] Group 2 - The increase in gold reserves is intertwined with a surge in demand for gold mining jobs in Africa, with a 120% year-on-year increase in recruitment for gold-related positions, driven by rising gold prices and favorable conditions for Chinese workers [6] - The challenges faced by Chinese miners in Africa, including health risks and legal uncertainties, highlight the complexities of the gold rush, where individuals are navigating a landscape shaped by global economic changes [6][8] - The articles suggest that the key to addressing the challenges of illegal mining and ensuring sustainable cooperation between China and Africa lies in establishing regulated cross-border mining partnerships and improving labor protections for overseas workers [8][9]