2026年的第一场战争，委内瑞拉。 当地时间1月3日， 委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯突然传出爆炸声，并响起防空警报。随后美国总统特朗普宣布，美军成功对委内瑞拉实施打击，抓获 委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉。 这意味着什么呢？ 美国基本上复刻了1989年，代号为正义事业的入侵巴拿马的行动，当时的美国也是通过军事入侵，成功的抓捕了时任巴拿马的总统。 现在，这已经是事实了。 对我们来说，要关注的无非是几个点。 第三，对全球局势的影响是什么？ 先说第一个，美国为什么要这么做？ 表面的理由是 石油和反美。 委内瑞拉石油储量全球第一，美国早年控制过它的石油，后来委内瑞拉搞国有化，两国就开始不对付。 1999年查韦斯上台后彻底反美，跟美国闹翻，马杜罗接班后继续硬扛，美国一直想把他搞下台。 但是，明眼人都知道，委内瑞拉的最大买家是谁，是中国。 委内瑞拉的石油储量高达 3041亿桶，全球第一 。 而就在今年， 超过85%的委内瑞拉原油出口目的地，是中国 ，日均达到惊人的84万桶。 最致命的在于，这些交易中 有60%是用人民币结算的 。 说到底，美国自己也是页岩油的出口大国，委内瑞拉等于一直抢了美国的生意。 这是大忌之一。 之前美 ...

12月26日，由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"在北京举行。本次年会以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题，来自政、商、学、研等领域的100多位嘉宾、 500余家金融机构和上市公司齐聚一堂，共赴这场思想盛宴。 第二，虚拟货币，特别是数字货币加速膨胀。美国把数字货币列为战略性储备资源，这对全球的货币体系、金融体系都将是重大的挑战。 第三，中国股市已经形成了一个慢牛趋势，但美国的股市泡沫正在加速堆积，去年已经突破经济学家所讲的38000点魔咒。 第四，金融衍生品存在的潜在风险可能在某一时点或在其他金融因素叠加下产生破裂。当下，全球159个国家已经进入去美元化浪潮，美国推出稳定币与美 元进行挂钩，以对抗去美元化浪潮。国际货币体系将会发生重大调整和变化。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 在本次大会上，中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任、原总经济师陈文玲谈及了2026年乃至"十五五"期间，我们将会面临哪些国际上的"灰犀牛""黑天 鹅"等不确定事件，以及分析这类事件将会对我国经济乃至全球经济产生的冲击及影响。 陈文玲重点提及七大国际方面的风险，包括一些国家经济泡沫破裂的风险；全球货币体系 ...

（原标题：独家专访诺奖得主罗伯特·恩格尔：在不确定性时代解构风险） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 "日中则昃，月盈则食，天地盈虚，与时消息"。万物皆有周期，金融市场也不例外。关键问题是：下一 场危机的导火索在哪儿？ 2003年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、上海纽约大学金融波动研究所（VINS）联席所长罗伯特·恩格尔（Robert Engle）在接受21世纪经济报道记者独家专访时表示，导火索可能是通货膨胀。"关税很可能会引发通货 膨胀，如果今年冬天、明年春天通胀率持续走高，尤其是在劳动力市场疲软的情况下，美联储将无法决 定是加息还是降息，因此，低利率的好处将无法显现，债券价格将会暴跌，股市也将大幅下跌。" 对于人工智能的风险，恩格尔不认为这是一个典型的泡沫。人工智能是否会彻底改变我们所看到的一 切，不再需要任何员工，或者它仅仅是一个提高现有工人效率的工具，这一问题存在着如此多截然不同 的观点。 恩格尔是著名计量经济学家，其创立的ARCH模型在经济、财务、统计等领域具有跨学界的贡献。2003 年，凭借开创性工作，恩格尔被瑞典皇家科学院授予诺贝尔经济学奖。他提出的ARCH模型已成为经济 界用来进行研究以及金融 ...

（原标题：港股异动 | 港交所(00388)午前跌超4% 灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大 港交所下月初将发布三 季报） 瑞银发布研报称，港交所将于下月初公布今年第三季业绩，目前预测季度收入及纯利将按年增长43%及 53%，达到77亿及48亿元，再创新高。瑞银的预测较市场普遍预期高出8%及11%。该行因应市场气氛情 况及南下资金参与度上升，将2025至2027年日均成交额预测上调9%至16%，并将港交所每股盈利预测 上调7%至12%，目标价485港元，评级"中性"。 智通财经APP获悉，港交所(00388)午前跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.68%，报423.8港元，成交额36.23亿港 元。 华泰证券发布研报称，灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大；短期资金和情绪还有释放空间，"TACO"交易需 要分批进行。银河证券发布研报称，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估 值回调。但在国内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。 当前港股估值整体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，港交所将于下月初公布今年第三季业绩，目前预测季度收入及纯利将按年增长43%及 53%，达到77亿及48亿元，再创新高。瑞银的预测较市场普遍预期高出8%及11%。该行因应市场气氛情 况及南下资金参与度上升，将2025至2027年日均成交额预测上调9%至16%，并将港交所每股盈利预测 上调7%至12%，目标价485港元，评级"中性"。 港交所(00388)午前跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.68%，报423.8港元，成交额36.23亿港元。 华泰证券发布研报称，灰犀牛事件导致市场波动加大；短期资金和情绪还有释放空间，"TACO"交易需 要分批进行。银河证券发布研报称，短期内，中美贸易摩擦升级导致投资者风险偏好下降，带动港股估 值回调。但在国内稳增长政策支持下，以及中长期资金稳股市举措影响下，投资者情绪有望逐渐稳定。 当前港股估值整体处于历史中高水平，预计未来港股市场或宽幅震荡。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent escalation of global trade tensions is not a "black swan" event but rather a "gray rhino" event, indicating a high probability risk that has been underestimated [2][6] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakness recently, and a resurgence of trade disputes could exacerbate inflation and impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2][6] - The current political landscape in the U.S. suggests that trade tensions are likely to reignite, especially as the midterm elections approach [1][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the U.S. administration's economic policies have primarily focused on tax cuts and fiscal subsidies, with limited success in reversing trade deficits or boosting manufacturing jobs [3][4] - The dynamics of global trade are shifting, with major trading partners, including China, taking more initiative in setting agendas, leading to a more complex economic landscape [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the previous perception of resolved trade issues was misleading, and the market may not easily dismiss the current tensions as it did in the past [6][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rejecting linear extrapolation in understanding the complexities of Trump's political maneuvers, suggesting that while his path to achieving goals is dynamic, the underlying demands remain static, leading to potential chaos [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The passage of the OBBB Act reflects Trump's stronger control over domestic affairs and may lead to a resurgence in his foreign policy assertiveness, increasing the risk of backlash from TACO [3][4]. - The U.S. economy may face three significant "gray rhino events" in the second half of 2025: a clear trend towards fiscal contraction post-OBBB Act, a more pragmatic and aggressive approach to tariffs and international relations, and confusion stemming from differing monetary policy stances between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Following the implementation of the OBBB Act, the U.S. fiscal landscape is expected to shift towards more contractionary measures, with a pressing need for budget cuts due to rising deficit pressures [5][11]. - Trump's approach to budget cuts is notably aggressive, particularly in reducing SNAP benefits, which may impact traditional red states and politically sensitive swing states [5][11]. Group 3: Trade and International Relations - Trump's renewed focus on tariffs and international relations is characterized as more aggressive and pragmatic, necessitating non-U.S. economies to reassess their negotiation strategies [11][12]. - The tariff structure for various countries under the "Liberation Day" initiative indicates a significant shift in trade dynamics, with countries like Japan and South Korea being primary targets for tariff adjustments [12][13]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs is likely to create market confusion, with the potential for the "shadow Fed chair" to gain market influence [14][15]. - The political implications of the Federal Reserve's actions are expected to intertwine with economic conditions, particularly as the new chair's stance may diverge significantly from the current chair's policies [17][19].

Report Summary 1. Core View - In H2 2025, there are three "gray rhino events" in the United States: the U.S. fiscal policy will focus on spending cuts after the implementation of the Big Beautiful Act; the backlash risk of TACO is increasing due to Trump's more "pragmatic and radical" approach to foreign tariffs and international relations; the difference in the attitude towards interest rate cuts between the new and old Federal Reserve chairmen may cause chaos, and the shadow Fed chairman may gain "market dominance" [2][5]. 2. Summary by Section Fiscal Policy - More Focus on Spending Cuts - After the implementation of the Big Beautiful Act, the new fiscal increment in the United States is limited, and future fiscal spending will be more inclined to make cuts. The demand for fiscal contraction will become more urgent, and the U.S. may enter a stage of spending - cut atmosphere, including exploring new spending - cut spaces and more "effective and pre - emptive" actions [8]. - Trump does not use the OBBB Act as a political tool in SNAP welfare cuts, being more radical in traditional red states and swing states with higher political costs. The "legacy" of DOGE 1.0, such as the U.S. State Department's lay - off plan and asset disposal of federal agency buildings, is still having an impact. The OBBB Act is more about "tax cuts" rather than direct "transfer payments", and its stimulus effect will be further discounted if the economy weakens [8][11]. International Relations - Increased TACO Backlash Risk - After the OBBB Act was passed in Congress on July 4th, Trump will turn to issues related to the U.S.'s long - term international competitiveness, such as tariffs and military protection fees. He will be more "radical and pragmatic" in foreign relations, and every non - U.S. economy needs to re - evaluate its negotiation chips. Hard power, such as China's advantage in the supply of strategic resources like rare earths and metal minerals, is more important, while the bargaining power of soft power is declining [16]. - The TACO backlash risk is increasing, with more "Liberation Days", more frequent "TACO" events, and greater market volatility. Trump's actions in international affairs may be restricted by the political views of other countries' voters, and the U.S. political system may also become an obstacle for him. The fragility of TACO should be emphasized [16][18]. Monetary Policy - Conflict between New and Old Fed Chairmen - As Powell will step down as Fed chairman in May 2026, if he also resigns as a governor, at least four out of seven Fed governors may support Trump's monetary policy stance. The difference in the statements of the new and old Fed chairmen on monetary policy will be magnified, and the impact on the U.S. may be more severe than Liberation Day 1.0, potentially leading to a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill and spill - over effects [19]. - The Fed's decisions are difficult to be decoupled from politics, especially the interest rate cut decision. The new and old Fed chairmen have different stances. After the debt ceiling is resolved, the TGA account needs to be replenished with about $500 billion through short - term debt issuance, which will increase the demand for Fed interest rate cuts. The short - term interest rate cut path is complex, and in the medium term, fiscal dominance based on Trump's will may become a regular disturbance [19][21][25].

Market Trend Analysis - Macro Global Markets processes 120 million market data points every minute, providing effective intelligence equivalent to a medium-sized library for each user every second [3] - The "Three-Dimensional Policy Shock Model" quantifies central bank interest rate paths, fiscal stimulus scales, and regulatory frameworks into tradable parameters, predicting that a one-month delay in the Fed's balance sheet reduction could narrow emerging market bond spreads by 8-12 basis points [3] Investment Strategy Core - The global macro strategy of Macro Global Markets is regarded as a "decision-making bible" due to its three-layer penetrating analysis framework, focusing on economic fundamentals, political cycles, and technological leaps [5] - The "Volatility Quadrant Tool" redefines risk-return ratios by categorizing assets into four types, with a recommendation to increase allocation to low correlation, high volatility assets to hedge against geopolitical risks, achieving a 3.2% positive return during a 9% drop in the Nasdaq index [5] Risk Quantification - The "Stress Test Matrix" offers a solution that surpasses traditional VaR models, simulating both sudden shocks and chronic risks, predicting a 12%-15% valuation correction for China's new energy vehicle sector if EU carbon tariffs expand [6] - The "Options Implied Volatility Surface Anomaly Scanning System" has successfully captured early signs of multiple black swan events, providing a 72-hour window for institutional investors to adjust their positions ahead of potential Fed rate cuts [6] Future Economic Forecast - Predictions indicate that 2026 may become the "year of AI productivity realization," driven by breakthroughs in general artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion [8] - The "Geopolitical Heat Index" suggests Southeast Asia is emerging as a new value area, with significant growth in infrastructure investment and digital payment penetration, recommending a focus on tech-consumer hybrid sectors in the region [8] Conclusion - Macro Global Markets' "anti-fragile analysis system" combines machine learning with human insights to navigate market uncertainties, helping professional investors create a "wealth navigation map" for the current era [9]

Group 1 - National security is a fundamental cornerstone for the stability of the nation, with the overall national security concept proposed by the central leadership providing essential guidance for security work in the new era [1][4] - The relationship between national security and modernization is emphasized, indicating that national security is crucial for the steady progress of Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The rapid growth of China's GDP from 54.75 trillion yuan in 2012 to an expected 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024 highlights the significant economic achievements during the modernization process [2] Group 2 - The current global landscape is characterized by unprecedented changes, with rising anti-globalization sentiments and frequent local conflicts, complicating the national security situation [3] - The challenges faced by China in transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income country are more complex, with various risks and uncertainties emerging [3] - The overall national security concept, established in 2014, emphasizes a comprehensive approach to security, integrating various aspects of national safety and guiding the country's security practices [5][6] Group 3 - The interaction between high-quality development and high-level security is crucial, with the need to balance development and security being a significant principle in governance [7][8] - High-quality development is seen as a solution to various security risks, with a focus on enhancing economic and technological strength to address challenges [8] - The importance of technological self-reliance and innovation in ensuring national security and development is highlighted, particularly in the context of international competition [8]