Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rejecting linear extrapolation in understanding the complexities of Trump's political maneuvers, suggesting that while his path to achieving goals is dynamic, the underlying demands remain static, leading to potential chaos [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The passage of the OBBB Act reflects Trump's stronger control over domestic affairs and may lead to a resurgence in his foreign policy assertiveness, increasing the risk of backlash from TACO [3][4]. - The U.S. economy may face three significant "gray rhino events" in the second half of 2025: a clear trend towards fiscal contraction post-OBBB Act, a more pragmatic and aggressive approach to tariffs and international relations, and confusion stemming from differing monetary policy stances between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Following the implementation of the OBBB Act, the U.S. fiscal landscape is expected to shift towards more contractionary measures, with a pressing need for budget cuts due to rising deficit pressures [5][11]. - Trump's approach to budget cuts is notably aggressive, particularly in reducing SNAP benefits, which may impact traditional red states and politically sensitive swing states [5][11]. Group 3: Trade and International Relations - Trump's renewed focus on tariffs and international relations is characterized as more aggressive and pragmatic, necessitating non-U.S. economies to reassess their negotiation strategies [11][12]. - The tariff structure for various countries under the "Liberation Day" initiative indicates a significant shift in trade dynamics, with countries like Japan and South Korea being primary targets for tariff adjustments [12][13]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs is likely to create market confusion, with the potential for the "shadow Fed chair" to gain market influence [14][15]. - The political implications of the Federal Reserve's actions are expected to intertwine with economic conditions, particularly as the new chair's stance may diverge significantly from the current chair's policies [17][19].

Report Summary 1. Core View - In H2 2025, there are three "gray rhino events" in the United States: the U.S. fiscal policy will focus on spending cuts after the implementation of the Big Beautiful Act; the backlash risk of TACO is increasing due to Trump's more "pragmatic and radical" approach to foreign tariffs and international relations; the difference in the attitude towards interest rate cuts between the new and old Federal Reserve chairmen may cause chaos, and the shadow Fed chairman may gain "market dominance" [2][5]. 2. Summary by Section Fiscal Policy - More Focus on Spending Cuts - After the implementation of the Big Beautiful Act, the new fiscal increment in the United States is limited, and future fiscal spending will be more inclined to make cuts. The demand for fiscal contraction will become more urgent, and the U.S. may enter a stage of spending - cut atmosphere, including exploring new spending - cut spaces and more "effective and pre - emptive" actions [8]. - Trump does not use the OBBB Act as a political tool in SNAP welfare cuts, being more radical in traditional red states and swing states with higher political costs. The "legacy" of DOGE 1.0, such as the U.S. State Department's lay - off plan and asset disposal of federal agency buildings, is still having an impact. The OBBB Act is more about "tax cuts" rather than direct "transfer payments", and its stimulus effect will be further discounted if the economy weakens [8][11]. International Relations - Increased TACO Backlash Risk - After the OBBB Act was passed in Congress on July 4th, Trump will turn to issues related to the U.S.'s long - term international competitiveness, such as tariffs and military protection fees. He will be more "radical and pragmatic" in foreign relations, and every non - U.S. economy needs to re - evaluate its negotiation chips. Hard power, such as China's advantage in the supply of strategic resources like rare earths and metal minerals, is more important, while the bargaining power of soft power is declining [16]. - The TACO backlash risk is increasing, with more "Liberation Days", more frequent "TACO" events, and greater market volatility. Trump's actions in international affairs may be restricted by the political views of other countries' voters, and the U.S. political system may also become an obstacle for him. The fragility of TACO should be emphasized [16][18]. Monetary Policy - Conflict between New and Old Fed Chairmen - As Powell will step down as Fed chairman in May 2026, if he also resigns as a governor, at least four out of seven Fed governors may support Trump's monetary policy stance. The difference in the statements of the new and old Fed chairmen on monetary policy will be magnified, and the impact on the U.S. may be more severe than Liberation Day 1.0, potentially leading to a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill and spill - over effects [19]. - The Fed's decisions are difficult to be decoupled from politics, especially the interest rate cut decision. The new and old Fed chairmen have different stances. After the debt ceiling is resolved, the TGA account needs to be replenished with about $500 billion through short - term debt issuance, which will increase the demand for Fed interest rate cuts. The short - term interest rate cut path is complex, and in the medium term, fiscal dominance based on Trump's will may become a regular disturbance [19][21][25].

Market Trend Analysis - Macro Global Markets processes 120 million market data points every minute, providing effective intelligence equivalent to a medium-sized library for each user every second [3] - The "Three-Dimensional Policy Shock Model" quantifies central bank interest rate paths, fiscal stimulus scales, and regulatory frameworks into tradable parameters, predicting that a one-month delay in the Fed's balance sheet reduction could narrow emerging market bond spreads by 8-12 basis points [3] Investment Strategy Core - The global macro strategy of Macro Global Markets is regarded as a "decision-making bible" due to its three-layer penetrating analysis framework, focusing on economic fundamentals, political cycles, and technological leaps [5] - The "Volatility Quadrant Tool" redefines risk-return ratios by categorizing assets into four types, with a recommendation to increase allocation to low correlation, high volatility assets to hedge against geopolitical risks, achieving a 3.2% positive return during a 9% drop in the Nasdaq index [5] Risk Quantification - The "Stress Test Matrix" offers a solution that surpasses traditional VaR models, simulating both sudden shocks and chronic risks, predicting a 12%-15% valuation correction for China's new energy vehicle sector if EU carbon tariffs expand [6] - The "Options Implied Volatility Surface Anomaly Scanning System" has successfully captured early signs of multiple black swan events, providing a 72-hour window for institutional investors to adjust their positions ahead of potential Fed rate cuts [6] Future Economic Forecast - Predictions indicate that 2026 may become the "year of AI productivity realization," driven by breakthroughs in general artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and controllable nuclear fusion [8] - The "Geopolitical Heat Index" suggests Southeast Asia is emerging as a new value area, with significant growth in infrastructure investment and digital payment penetration, recommending a focus on tech-consumer hybrid sectors in the region [8] Conclusion - Macro Global Markets' "anti-fragile analysis system" combines machine learning with human insights to navigate market uncertainties, helping professional investors create a "wealth navigation map" for the current era [9]

Group 1 - National security is a fundamental cornerstone for the stability of the nation, with the overall national security concept proposed by the central leadership providing essential guidance for security work in the new era [1][4] - The relationship between national security and modernization is emphasized, indicating that national security is crucial for the steady progress of Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The rapid growth of China's GDP from 54.75 trillion yuan in 2012 to an expected 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024 highlights the significant economic achievements during the modernization process [2] Group 2 - The current global landscape is characterized by unprecedented changes, with rising anti-globalization sentiments and frequent local conflicts, complicating the national security situation [3] - The challenges faced by China in transitioning from a middle-income to a high-income country are more complex, with various risks and uncertainties emerging [3] - The overall national security concept, established in 2014, emphasizes a comprehensive approach to security, integrating various aspects of national safety and guiding the country's security practices [5][6] Group 3 - The interaction between high-quality development and high-level security is crucial, with the need to balance development and security being a significant principle in governance [7][8] - High-quality development is seen as a solution to various security risks, with a focus on enhancing economic and technological strength to address challenges [8] - The importance of technological self-reliance and innovation in ensuring national security and development is highlighted, particularly in the context of international competition [8]

家人们，我是帮主郑重。二十年盯盘练就的火眼金睛，带你们穿透这波美股连涨的迷雾，看清市场真正的底牌！昨夜道指、标普双双拿下六连阳，表面歌舞 升平，实则暗流涌动——科技股分化、中概股疲软、大宗商品集体趴窝，这行情可比悬疑片还刺激！ 先说这美股"虚假繁荣"的戏码。道指0.75%的涨幅看着热闹，但扒开成分股一看，波音、卡特彼勒这些传统巨头贡献了过半涨幅，分明是资金在玩"高低切 换"的避险游戏。更值得玩味的是纳指，0.55%的涨幅全靠特斯拉硬撑，这位"孤胆英雄"独吞2.15%的涨幅，而亚马逊、谷歌这些老牌科技龙头却逆势微跌 ——这哪是牛市？分明是特斯拉带着几个小弟在扛旗！ 下期咱们重点拆解"超微电脑暴雷连锁反应"，关注帮主郑重，二十年经验教你如何从危机中挖黄金！散会！ 债市动向更值得细品。十年期美债收益率跌破4.17%，两年期收益率来到3.65%，这陡峭化的收益率曲线在暗示什么？结合消费者信心指数跌至疫情新低， 还有职位空缺数三连降，市场这是在赌美联储九月必降息啊！但各位别忘了，美联储那帮老头最擅长的就是"用嘴加息"，小心预期差反杀。 说到这，帮主给家人们划三条重点：其一，美股这波连涨根基不牢，科技股要等英伟达财报一锤 ...

还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博 格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理念。 大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故 事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你103本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾 第一篇：《 为何人人都爱预测：如何更好的抓住未来的答案 》 "黑天鹅"和"灰犀牛"事件 最近看了一本挺有意思的新书，《科学预测》。 上一篇，咱们介绍了未来是很难预测的。 有一套不断学习、进化的思维模式，是我们应对未来不确定世界的武器。 在应对不确定性的时候，有两种不确定性事件，所带来的风险是比较大的。 那就是"黑天鹅"和"灰犀牛"事件。 黑天鹅事件 黑天鹅和灰犀牛，听起来像是进入了动物园。 其实它们是两类风险事件的代名词。 黑天鹅，指的是出现概率极低，但是一旦发生了，破坏力又非常大的事件。 黑天鹅事件通常是事先无法预料到的。 举个例子。 在1987年10月，美股 ...