哈喽大家好，今天我们来聊聊最近国际政坛的戏码，简直让人眼花缭乱！加拿大最近的极限翻脸操作，直接把美加关系搞得乱七八糟。前不久，特 鲁多政府还和美国一起对中国加征关税，喊话也不温不火，结果转眼卡尼政府就试图伸出橄榄枝，想要重建与中国的合作关系。美国的特朗普当即 气得发文，宣布暂停所有与加拿大的贸易谈判。这剧情反转，比刷短视频还要刺激呢！ 特朗普这波操作也挺惊人的，原因还真是让人有点摸不着头脑。原来，加拿大安大略省政府投入了约7500万加元，推出了一则反关税广告，这个广 告剪辑了美国前总统里根1987年的讲话片段，给人一种里根也反对关税的错觉，而里根正是特朗普的偶像！特朗普认为，加拿大断章取义的做法是 在冒犯他，于是怒不可遏，决定把所有的美加贸易谈判都叫停。随后，里根总统基金会也发表声明，指责加拿大未经授权擅自使用讲话内容，并歪 曲原意，甚至认为这则广告存在欺诈行为，意图干预美国法院裁决。明眼人一看就知道，这背后的真正原因，很可能是加拿大正在试图减少对美国 的依赖，并积极寻求与中国的合作，而这显然是特朗普不能容忍的。事实上，这并不是特朗普第一次暂停美加贸易谈判，早在今年6月，他就因为 加拿大对美国科技公司征收数字 ...

Group 1 - UBS Asset Management's Managing Director, Guilin, indicates that the trend of global currency diversification is likely to lead to increased foreign investment in the Chinese bond market, potentially marking the beginning of a third wave of inflows into RMB-denominated bonds [1][2] - UBS launched its first pure RMB bond fund in Luxembourg in 2018, which currently has a size of approximately $4 billion, primarily attracting clients from Europe [1] - Guilin highlights three significant peaks in foreign investment in Chinese bonds over the past fifteen years, with the first peak occurring from 2010 to 2013, the second from 2018 to 2020, and the third expected to start in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Recent communications with international investors reveal that they generally adopt a medium to long-term investment strategy, showing a higher tolerance for short-term currency fluctuations [2] - The scale of the RMB bond market is substantial, making it an essential market for international investors [2] - The trend of investing in non-USD assets is accelerating, suggesting that foreign investors will further increase their allocation to the Chinese bond market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in value and liquidity, indicating strong market interest and potential for further investment from foreign investors as global monetary diversification trends continue [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of August 12, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has accumulated a 10.05% increase over the past year [2]. - The latest fund size of the 30-year government bond ETF is 14.99 billion yuan [2]. - The fund has achieved a net value increase of 9.93% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 418 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.67% [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 21.84% with a trading volume of 3.276 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [2]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net inflow of 551 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 110 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that foreign investment in the Chinese bond market may increase, potentially leading to a third wave of inflows into the renminbi bond market [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cut by the U.S. in September may narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., making Chinese bonds more attractive for diversification [2]. Group 4: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown for the ETF over the past six months was 6.75%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.51% [3]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3]. Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of August 12, 2025, the tracking error for the ETF over the past two months is 0.043%, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [4].

Core Insights - UBS Asset Management's Director General highlighted the potential for increased foreign investment in China's bond market due to ongoing global currency diversification trends [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the US in September may narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US, making Chinese bonds more attractive [1] - Since March 2018, foreign holdings of Chinese bonds have grown from approximately $200 billion to around $600 billion by March 2025, indicating rapid growth [1] Group 1 - The current foreign investment proportion in China's bond market is relatively low at 2.3% as of March 2025, suggesting room for growth [1][2] - The low foreign investment is attributed to the short time foreign investors have been in the market since the introduction of the CIBM direct investment program in 2016 [2] - China's bond market, being the second largest globally, holds significant value for international investors, indicating a positive long-term outlook for foreign investment [2] Group 2 - In the current structure of China's bond market, interest rate bonds account for approximately 62.3%, while credit bonds make up about 37.7% [2] - Foreign investors tend to start with basic products such as government bonds and policy bank bonds, leading to a concentration in interest rate bonds [2] - There has been a noticeable increase in foreign investment in bank negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) over the past two years, driven by favorable yield conditions [2]

Core Points - The US dollar index has experienced a significant decline of nearly 11% in the first half of this year, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973 [1][2] - Factors contributing to the decline include persistent stagflation in the US economy, increasing risks of fiscal policy mismanagement, overextension of dollar credit, and accelerated global currency diversification [2][3] Economic Conditions - The US economy is facing a slowdown with signs of rising inflation, as evidenced by a 0.5% contraction in GDP in Q1 and a core PCE price index annualized rate of 3.5% [2] - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have raised the probability of a US recession to between 45% and 60% [2] Fiscal Policy Risks - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by Congress is projected to increase US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, with federal debt expected to exceed $37 trillion by July 2025, potentially surpassing 123% of GDP [2][3] Dollar Credit Concerns - The US dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is being undermined by political pressures on the Federal Reserve, leading to diminished confidence in US monetary policy [3] - Market expectations suggest a higher likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026, prompting investors to reduce their dollar holdings [3] Global Currency Trends - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 57.7%, with gold, euro, and renminbi emerging as popular alternative safe-haven assets [3][4] - In May, the dollar's share in global payments dropped to 48.46%, while the euro's share increased to 23.5% [3] Credit Rating Downgrades - Major credit rating agencies, including Moody's, have collectively downgraded US debt ratings, marking the first time since 1917 that the US has lost its AAA rating across all three agencies [4] - This downgrade has weakened the dollar's position as a "global risk-free asset," leading to a shift in capital towards gold and non-US currencies [4] Central Bank Strategies - A survey of 75 central banks indicates that one-third plan to increase gold reserves in the next one to two years, with emerging market central banks showing particularly strong demand [5] - The proportion of central banks planning to increase euro reserves has risen from 7% to 16%, while the renminbi is expected to see its share in global reserves double to 6% over the next decade [6]