东西问｜席睿德：全球秩序重构，中国金融如何平衡开放与安全？ 中新社上海12月16日电 题：全球秩序重构，中国金融如何平衡开放与安全？ ——专访新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、国际货币基金组织前驻华首席代表席睿德 作者 高志苗 尹倩芸 2025外滩年会日前在上海举行。会议期间，新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、国际货币基金组织前驻华首席代表席睿德(Alfred Schipke)，就中国金融开放、 全球金融治理以及人工智能(AI)应用等议题接受中新社"东西问"专访。 现将访谈实录摘要如下： 中新社记者：您曾推动中国债券纳入彭博巴克莱全球综合指数，并著有《中国债券市场的未来》一书，您如何看待中国债券市场的发展？ 席睿德：目前，中国债券市场总规模位居世界第二。经过多年发展，中国债券市场取得长足发展，国际影响力持续提升。中国债券市场的核心优势是与美国 国债市场相关性低，为全球投资者提供了宝贵的多元化选择。 中国已拥有规模庞大的股票市场和债券市场，未来需要进一步拓宽和多元化投资者基础，比如，债市需要吸引更多诸如养老基金等长期投资者参与。中国债 券市场前景广阔，但其潜力的实现有赖于优化流动性、信用评级与隐性担保等，在这些方面进行 ...

2026年的四大系统性变化 王淦 中信证券研究部 大类资产配置分析师 2025年11月11日 请务必阅读末页的免责条款和声明 核心结论 2026年大类资产配置策略 变化之一：经济周期的新阶段。需求端对经济的拖累正在减弱，宏观环境"否极泰来"的迹象越发明晰。M1和PPI等经济周期的领先指标 指向经济周期已经进入为反弹蓄力的最后阶段。不过，也需注意到经济周期的修复并非一簇而就，资产负债表、外需、就业预期和政策节 奏都将是影响修复节奏的重要因素。 变化之二：PPI从负增长到正增长。在货币活跃程度已经先行回暖、油价有望出现反弹、翘尾因素减弱等多重因素的共同作用下，2026年 PPI单月同比增速有望回升并走出负增长区间。 变化之三：潜在的美联储降息周期拐点。考虑到劳动力市场的恶化对美联储货币政策的减弱作用应该是边际减弱的，且美国通胀黏性并未 实际减弱，美联储2026年存在结束降息周期的可能性。 变化之四：中国资产的收益波动特征。中国债券低波动的特征可能还将延续，但在利率相比GDP偏低、债市收益相比利率偏高的环境下， 债市预期收益可能会稳定在偏低的水平；股票则需关注估值高位后的波动放大趋势。 大类资产配置策略 A股：估值 ...

Core Insights - The trend of foreign investors reducing their holdings in Chinese bonds while increasing their investments in U.S. Treasuries is noteworthy and reflects underlying economic factors [1][3][10] Group 1: Data Analysis - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held approximately 3.2 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of about 11.1% from 3.6 trillion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1] - In contrast, foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. Treasuries by approximately 280 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant portion coming from Asia [1][3] Group 2: Economic Factors - The divergence in interest rate policies between China and the U.S. is a primary factor influencing this trend, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields around 4.2% compared to China's 2.8%, creating a yield spread of 1.4 percentage points [3] - Currency fluctuations also play a critical role, as the Chinese yuan has depreciated by about 3.5% against the dollar since the beginning of 2025, impacting the total returns for foreign investors [3][10] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The reduction in Chinese bond holdings is primarily driven by hedge funds and short-term investment funds, which are more sensitive to yield changes [4] - Approximately 60% of the foreign investors reducing their Chinese bond holdings are private investment institutions, while 40% are official institutions, indicating that market-driven factors are predominant [4] Group 4: Market Fundamentals - The fundamentals of the Chinese bond market remain robust, with stable economic growth, sound fiscal conditions, and low default risk supporting the attractiveness of Chinese bonds [5][10] - The ongoing improvement of market access mechanisms, such as Bond Connect and QFII, is expected to enhance the investment environment for foreign investors [6][7] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Historical trends suggest that the current adjustments may be temporary fluctuations within a longer-term upward trajectory of foreign participation in the Chinese bond market [4][10] - The internationalization of the yuan and its increasing use in global trade may enhance the demand for Chinese assets in the future [9] Group 6: Market Dynamics - The competition and cooperation between the Chinese and U.S. bond markets are likely to persist, fostering improvements in both markets [8] - The stability and predictability of regulatory policies are crucial for maintaining investor confidence in the Chinese bond market [8][10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global economic recovery, commodity performance, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on investment strategies. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is expected to shift towards recovery, with copper projected to perform best among commodities, while gold faces a risk of price correction to around $3,500. [1][2] 2. **U.S. Treasury Rates**: U.S. Treasury rates are anticipated to remain above 4% for the 10-year bonds, with the dollar index fluctuating between 100 and 105. [1][2] 3. **Technology Sector Capital Expenditure**: U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure is a critical macro variable that will determine whether the global economy enters a recovery or recession. Continued growth in capital expenditure is likely to support economic recovery. [1][5] 4. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics**: The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is evolving into a competition in technology and security, necessitating investors to monitor policy changes closely. [4][7] 5. **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The decline in the Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize, but its impact on the economy and asset pricing will diminish. The focus should be on managing non-performing assets in the financial sector. [1][8][9] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Outlook**: The potential for a bull market in Chinese stocks depends on liquidity easing, industry logic support, and stable fundamentals, with PPI growth being a key indicator. [1][14] 7. **Investment Opportunities**: In the event of global recovery, commodities like copper will present significant investment opportunities, while in a recession scenario, U.S. Treasuries and gold will be favored. [2][18] Other Important Insights 1. **Impact of Subsidy Reductions**: The tapering of subsidies for home appliances and automobiles is expected to negatively affect economic growth in 2026, although its impact on capital market pricing is considered limited. [16] 2. **CPI Data and Consumer Expectations**: Recent CPI data shows seasonal volatility in food prices, with core inflation remaining stable. The overall consumer trend is expected to improve, but strong performance remains challenging. [17] 3. **Future of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be influenced more by economic demand than by the individual chairperson's style, with a focus on maintaining growth amid trade tensions. [20] 4. **Gold Market Trends**: The outlook for gold prices is expected to decline to around $3,500 in 2026, influenced by the dynamics of technology capital expenditure and U.S. monetary policy. [23] 5. **Long-term Technology Sector Development**: The competition in the technology sector between the U.S. and China is likely to drive increased capital expenditure, fostering overall economic recovery. [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry trends, and investment strategies for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].

Core Viewpoint - China's bond market is becoming an important option for foreign institutions as the country accelerates its financial opening, with various investment channels influencing foreign investment behavior [1][2]. Overview of Foreign Investment Channels in China's Bond Market - The QFII system, established in 2002, was the first major channel for foreign institutions to invest in China's capital market, initially having high entry barriers which have been gradually relaxed [3]. - The RQFII system, launched in 2011, supports the internationalization of the RMB by allowing foreign institutions to invest in the domestic market using RMB funds, with recent expansions in its scope [4]. - CIBM Direct, initiated in 2016, allows foreign institutions to enter the interbank bond market without prior approval, becoming a major channel for foreign investment [5]. - The "Bond Connect," established in 2017, facilitates access to the interbank bond market through Hong Kong, simplifying the process for foreign investors and enhancing market participation [6]. Comparison of Foreign Institutions' Investment Behavior - Different channels attract various types of foreign institutions, with QFII primarily attracting large international financial institutions, while RQFII is favored by institutions holding offshore RMB [7][8]. - CIBM Direct has broadened the types of foreign institutions participating, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, while "Bond Connect" has attracted a wider range of institutions, including smaller asset management firms [8][9]. Investment Scale and Trends - As of August 2025, foreign institutions held approximately 3.83 trillion yuan in interbank bonds, with CIBM Direct accounting for 77.08% of the holdings, while "Bond Connect" represented about 22.92% [9][10]. - The trading volume through "Bond Connect" has surpassed that of CIBM Direct, indicating a more active trading behavior among smaller institutions [9]. Preference for Bond Types - Foreign institutions generally prefer interest rate bonds, particularly government and policy bank bonds, with government bonds holding a 72.6% share of their holdings as of August 2025 [10][11]. Preference for Bond Maturity - Investment strategies vary by channel, with QFII and RQFII focusing on flexible duration strategies, while CIBM Direct participants, such as central banks, prefer medium to long-term bonds [12]. Factors Influencing Investment Behavior - Foreign institutions' investment decisions are influenced by policy regulations, market conditions, investor attributes, and limitations of each investment channel [13][14]. - The regulatory environment, including entry barriers and operational processes, significantly impacts the depth and breadth of foreign investment [14]. - Market conditions, such as macroeconomic stability and interest rate differentials, also play a crucial role in shaping investment behavior [15]. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations - To enhance the attractiveness of China's bond market for foreign investors, recommendations include improving asset quality, streamlining cross-border custody standards, and optimizing tax processes [20][21][22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% aligns with market expectations, indicating a continuation of the easing cycle in the future [2][3][4]. Impact on Global Assets - The Fed's rate cut is expected to have profound effects on global asset prices. The short-term outlook for U.S. stocks may experience volatility, but the long-term performance will depend on economic fundamentals and the ability of corporate earnings to withstand growth slowdowns [5][6]. - U.S. Treasury yields may rise in the short term but are expected to trend downward in the medium term as the easing cycle progresses, leading to potential increases in bond prices [6][7]. - The dollar index may receive short-term support but is likely to face limited upward potential, while the rate cut could enhance the appeal of gold as an anti-inflation asset [6][7]. A-shares and Bond Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its positive momentum, supported by the Fed's rate cut alleviating capital outflow pressures from emerging markets and improving the liquidity environment for Chinese stocks [8][9]. - The bond market is expected to remain strong, with the Fed's actions providing more room for the People's Bank of China to implement looser monetary policies, thereby reducing constraints on the yuan's exchange rate [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching $4000 per ounce, reflects not only rising risk aversion but also a response to shifts in the global monetary order, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, driven by factors such as central banks accumulating gold reserves and private sectors actively investing in gold assets [2]. - The historical peak in gold prices coincides with a technical government shutdown in the U.S. and an uncertain global economic outlook, highlighting a blend of market risk appetite and instinct for safety [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is currently in a phase of "spiral ascent" but faces structural challenges, despite China's growing economic influence [4]. - In Q1 2025, the RMB accounted for 2.12% of global foreign reserves, ranking sixth, significantly lower than the U.S. dollar's 57.74% [3]. Group 3: Market Adoption of Renminbi - A notable shift occurred in Q2 2024, where RMB cross-border transaction settlements surpassed those in USD for the first time, indicating a growing preference for RMB among enterprises [5]. - Surveys show that 68% of companies used RMB for cross-border trade settlements in Q4 2024, with 71% citing "asset safety" as the primary reason for this choice [5]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Policy Developments - The establishment of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center and the upcoming 10th anniversary of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) signify a shift towards a transaction-driven RMB infrastructure [12][16]. - The People's Bank of China is focused on enhancing the global cross-border payment system, promoting the principles of "no loss, compliance, and interoperability" for digital currency [15]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Strategies - Over 60% of enterprises perceive the complexity of cross-border RMB policies as a significant barrier, indicating a need for simplification and optimization of capital flow processes [20]. - To enhance RMB internationalization, strategies should focus on improving liquidity, developing onshore derivative markets for risk hedging, and creating tailored financial products for enterprises [20]. Group 6: Broader Implications - The ongoing structural changes in the global monetary environment are reflected in the increasing use of RMB and the historical highs in gold prices, suggesting a potential shift away from dollar dominance [21][22]. - The RMB's evolution from a policy-driven currency to one that gains market acceptance through transaction experiences is crucial for its future credibility and stability [17][24].

Core Insights - In 2025, a rare "dual sell-off" occurred in the global bond market, with foreign capital reducing holdings in Chinese bonds by 370 billion yuan over three months while simultaneously purchasing US Treasury bonds, net buying 58.2 billion USD in July alone, pushing total US debt holdings to a historic peak of 9.159 trillion USD [1][3][5] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been continuously reducing their holdings in Chinese bonds, with a total withdrawal of 370 billion yuan from May to July 2025, marking a five-year low in total holdings around 4 trillion yuan [1][7] - In contrast, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds surged to 9.159 trillion USD in July 2025, with Japan and the UK leading the buying spree, the latter replacing China as the second-largest holder of US debt with nearly 900 billion USD [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core factors driving these trends include the trade policies of the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs of 10% to 50% on imported goods, causing market turbulence and leading to a significant influx of capital into US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset [5][7] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve further stimulated capital inflow, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September, which would increase existing bond prices and provide capital gains for investors [5][7] Group 3: Structural Adjustments - The reduction in Chinese bond holdings primarily affected negotiable certificates of deposit and policy financial bonds, with the former declining by 13% and the latter by approximately 5%, indicating a preference for short-term arbitrage opportunities [9] - Despite the reduction, foreign holdings still represent only 2.3% of the total Chinese bond market, which stands at 25 trillion yuan, suggesting that the fundamentals of the market remain intact [7][9] Group 4: Global Capital Flow Diversification - The capital flow is not merely a "side-taking" phenomenon; in the first half of 2025, funds also diversified into markets such as Canada, Japan, and Germany, with China reducing its US Treasury holdings by 25.7 billion USD, reaching a new low since 2009 [12] - The trend reflects a diversification of global reserves, with the cross-border payment scale of the yuan increasing significantly from an average of 200 billion yuan in 2010 to 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating that yuan assets are becoming essential rather than optional [12]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that as of August 2025, 1,170 foreign institutions from 80 countries and regions have entered the Chinese bond market, holding a total of approximately 4 trillion RMB in bonds [1] Group 1: Market Opening and Growth - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange report that the opening of the Chinese bond market to foreign investors has achieved positive results, with an increase in both the number of foreign institutional investors and the scale of bond holdings [1] - The demand for liquidity management through bond repurchase transactions has been steadily increasing among foreign institutional investors [1] Group 2: Bond Repurchase Business - Since 2015, the People's Bank of China has been promoting the opening of the bond repurchase business in the interbank bond market, allowing foreign sovereign institutions, offshore RMB clearing banks, and foreign participating banks to engage in bond repurchase transactions [1] - In 2025, a joint offshore repurchase business was launched with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, targeting bonds under the "Bond Connect" northbound scheme [1] - On September 26, a joint announcement was made to support foreign institutional investors conducting bond repurchase transactions in the Chinese bond market [1]