2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最 高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新高；年内涨幅逾50%。 作者： 欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 4000美元！黄金在无声中呐喊的，不只是避险焦虑，更是对全球货币秩序暗流涌动的本能回应。 2025年10月7日上午，纽约期金主力合约盘中罕见飙升，最高触及每盎司4000美元，再创历史新 高；年内涨幅逾50%。 黄金这一破位跃升，并非由地缘冲突或通胀预期点燃，而是在美联储重启 降息、美元指数显著走弱的大背景下，包括各国央行连续增持黄金储备，私人部门积极配置黄金资 产，都在推动黄金走出独立行情。资本市场以黄金之名，向美元信用投下的一票"沉默公投"。 美联储降息后，美元指数走弱，年内跌幅近10%，而人民币汇率稳中向好，年内涨幅为2.46%； 这可能是系统性变量的拐点。它意味着， 世界在寻找美元之外的相关资产锚。 在此背景下，人民币的"三角功能"可能在跃迁： 从"结算货币"渐趋进阶至"投资货币"，并逐步试 探"储备货币"的边界。 国际货币基金数据显示，2025年一季度，人民币全球外储占比2.12%（2463亿美元），位列第 六 ， 低 于 美 元 （ 57.74% ...

2025年全球债市上演了一场罕见的"双向抛售"：外资一边连续三个月减持中国债券，累计撤资3700亿元；另一边却疯狂扫货美国国债，仅7月就净买入582亿 美元，将美债持有量推高至9.159万亿美元的历史峰值。 这种看似"互扔炸弹"的操作，背后其实是资本在全球动荡中的精密布局。 特朗普重返白宫后加征关税、美联储降息预期发酵、中美利差倒挂……一系列变 量让国际投资者不断调整筹码。 但若因此认为外资在"逃离中国"，可能误读了这场游戏的本质。 2025年7月，美国国债的外国持有量飙升至9.159万亿美元，单月净增582亿美元。 日本和英国成为这波购买潮的领头羊：日本持仓达到1.151万亿美元，英国 则以近9000亿美元的规模取代中国成为美债第二大持有国。 细看减持结构，同业存单和政策性金融债是抛售重点，前者规模下降13%，后者减少约5%。 这类品种波动较大，适合短期套利。 2024年9月就出现过类似 情况：外资减持中债1300亿元，转而投入A股追求更高收益。 2025年，对冲后的人民币债券收益率甚至转负，机构选择获利了结实属正常操作。 央行级投资者并未撤离。 瑞银调查显示，主权基金仍在增配人民币资产，看中中国债券与全球 ...

最新数据显示，截至2025年8月末，共有来自80个国家和地区的1170家境外机构进入中国债券市场，持 债总量约4万亿元人民币。 据中国人民银行、证监会、国家外汇管理局三部门介绍，近年来，中国债券市场对外开放取得积极成 效，境外机构投资者投资中国债券市场的数量和持债规模扩大，通过债券回购业务开展流动性管理的需 求不断增加。 其中，中国人民银行有序推动银行间债券市场债券回购业务对外开放，自2015年起，支持境外主权类机 构、境外人民币业务清算行和境外参加行在银行间市场开展债券回购业务；2025年，与香港金管局共同 推出以"债券通"北向通债券为标的的离岸回购业务。 9月26日，三部门联合发布公告，支持可在中国债券市场开展债券现券交易的境外机构投资者开展债券 回购业务。 （文章来源：中国经营报） ...

转折开始于 2024 年，外资全年净流入中国债市 416 亿美元，一改此前颓势。进入 2025 年，这一趋势进一步强化：截至 5 月末，1169 家境外机构（覆盖 70 多个国家和地区）持有中国债券规模，较 2024 年末增加 2700 多亿元，8 月单月净流入更逼近 390 亿美元，资金回流信号显著。 2023年美联储加息新闻 真准利率 200 日 景德 旅遊率 15.29 1.40 324 325 126 200 200 2AD 全球债市版图中，外资对中国债券的态度在三年内完成了一个"减持 - 增持 - 加码" 的戏剧性转变，从 2023 年的谨慎撤离，到 2025 年的持续入场，背后是多 重市场的共振。 2023 年，美联储激进加息将美债收益率推至 22 年高位，5.5%-5.7% 的收益水平远超中国三年期国债 2.35% 的收益率。利率差下，外资选择用脚投票，当年 减持中国国债约 800 亿元，不少海外基金暂时将中债移出配置清单。 600 500 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 SD 80 市场普遍认为，短期美元资产波动或影响外资入场节奏，但中长期看，随着中国债券纳入全球指数权重提升、 ...

强吸引力 境外机构看好中国债券市场 这些政策的落地让我国债券市场的国际影响力和吸引力不断提升。 2025年9月25日，香港证券及期货事务监察委员会与香港金融管理局联合举办首届香港固定收益及货币 论坛，中国人民银行副行长邹澜发表主旨演讲。邹澜回顾了近年来内地与香港在金融市场的务实合作， 介绍了人民币债券资产的独特优势和中国债券市场的繁荣发展成果，强调了人民银行将继续支持香港国 际金融中心建设，推动中国金融市场高水平对外开放。 "过去几年，随着中国经济增长动能不断激活，中国债券市场高质量发展稳步推进，人民币债券资产进 一步展现出良好的投资价值。"有业内人士表示。 在本次论坛上，邹澜还宣布了四项重磅措施，旨在进一步提升跨境投融资便利化水平，推动金融市场高 水平开放，加快离岸人民币市场发展。据悉，人民银行近期将重点推动这些举措落地。 中国债券市场规模居世界第二 近年来，中国债券市场在服务实体经济、优化融资结构中发挥关键作用，实现健康快速发展。债券市场 的国际影响力和吸引力显著提升。"中国人民银行通过完善市场化运行机制，加强债券市场基础设施统 筹，提高市场运行效率，健全规则统一的违约风险防范与处置机制，持续推动市场统一 ...

前言 面对美联储降息带来的全球流动性变化，中国央行并未简单跟随，而是通过精准调控外汇掉期点等工具 稳定汇率预期，有效引导人民币汇率在合理均衡水平保持基本稳定。 这一举措不仅缓解了贬值压力，同时增强了资产吸引力，促使外资持续增配A股市场。 在政策自主性与市场韧性共同支撑下，A股中长期投资价值显著提升。 央行没降息，却给市场发了红包 美联储最近动作不小，9月18日宣布把利率降了0.25个百分点，现在利率区间在4.0%到4.25%之间。 这个消息一出来，全球金融市场都在动，但咱们中国央行的反应挺有意思。 没跟着降息，却用了个更巧妙的办法来应对。 这次央行选了第三个办法。简单说，外汇掉期点就像国际资本进出的"手续费"。央行把这个"手续费"从 9月初的2.18%降到了现在的1.91%，相当于打了个九折。 这招很聪明，既没动咱们的基准利率（7天逆回购利率还稳稳站在1.40%），又让外资进来的成本低 了，真是一举两得。 可能有人会问，为啥不直接降息呢？ 你想啊，如果咱们跟着降息，虽然能让贷款便宜点，但老百姓存银行的利息也少了，说不定会影响大家 的储蓄习惯。 而且现在咱们经济正在慢慢恢复，保持利率稳定能给市场吃颗定心丸。 咱 ...

从汇率角度看，东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在接受《证券日报》记者采访时分析，伴随美联储 降息以及美国经济降温，美元指数还将承受一定下行压力，这将为人民币带来被动升值动能。 不过，白雪也提醒，由于上半年美元跌幅巨大，后期也会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内基本面方面，逆周期 调节政策适时加力将确保经济运行基本稳定，这方面有充足的政策空间，将为人民币汇率提供重要的内 在支撑。由此，接下来人民币汇率预计仍将以稳为主，快速升值或大幅贬值的风险都不大。 从货币政策角度看，业界普遍认为，美联储重启降息，我国货币政策面临的外部掣肘将进一步减弱，操 作空间也将有所拓宽。 从人民币资产角度看，刘涛认为，境外资金有望在一定程度上加快流向人民币资产。中美利差进一步收 窄将吸引更多全球资金关注人民币资产。对于全球投资者而言，其本质是追求资产收益的最大化。在新 的利差预期变化下，投资人民币资产能够带来更为可观的收益，促使其重新调整资产配置组合，增加对 中国债券、股票等资产的持有比例，尤其是一些被低估优质资产和具备较高增长潜力的资产，从而有可 能带来更多增量流动性。 与上次降息时隔9个月，美联储重启降息终于"靴子落地"，这对于我国宏观经济有着 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in global capital flows, with foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds while simultaneously reducing their investments in Chinese bonds, indicating a search for stability and better opportunities in uncertain times [1][3][25] - In June, foreign investors added $80.2 billion to U.S. Treasury holdings, bringing the total to $9.13 trillion, a record high, while foreign investment in Chinese bonds decreased by 370 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with over 90 billion yuan withdrawn in May alone [1][12] - The article suggests that the current trend of investing in U.S. Treasuries is driven by a combination of global uncertainties, including market volatility and geopolitical tensions, rather than a sudden increase in the attractiveness of U.S. assets [5][10][25] Group 2 - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a favorable opportunity for bond investors, as it could lead to higher prices for existing bonds, creating a "price difference" profit opportunity [7][8] - The reduction in foreign investment in Chinese bonds is characterized as a tactical repositioning rather than a complete withdrawal, with foreign investors still holding approximately 4.3 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, which is less than 2.5% of the total market [12][13] - The article emphasizes that the capital outflow from the Chinese bond market is not indicative of a lack of confidence in China, but rather a strategic adjustment in response to market conditions and the performance of other asset classes, such as equities [17][19][25] Group 3 - The capital movement is framed as a global rebalancing rather than a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China, with international funds diversifying their investments across various markets, including Canada, Germany, and Japan [19][21] - The unique value of Chinese bonds is increasingly recognized, particularly their low correlation with bonds from developed economies, providing a valuable hedging opportunity for investors [21][23] - The article concludes that the current dynamics in the capital markets reflect a broader trend of seeking stability and risk diversification, with capital flows being driven by long-term strategic considerations rather than short-term market reactions [25][27]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%, which aligns with market expectations[4] - The decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut[9] - Most officials anticipate two more rate cuts within the year, according to the updated dot plot[9] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Deteriorating employment data is the primary reason for the rate cut, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000[4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a severe slowdown in the labor market[4] - The latest CPI and PPI data show inflation levels are manageable, with August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[14] Group 3: Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, due to increased liquidity from the Fed's actions[6] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields may lead to a limited increase in foreign investment in Chinese bonds, as the yield gap remains inverted[21] - Gold prices are likely to rise further, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,690 per ounce as of September 16, 2025, benefiting from the Fed's dovish stance[21] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold and Hong Kong stocks following the Fed's rate cut[7] - The potential for further easing in China's monetary policy is anticipated, following the Fed's actions[23] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential escalation of U.S.-China tariffs, domestic monetary policy not meeting expectations, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts[24]

Core Viewpoint - The international influence and attractiveness of China's bond market have significantly increased, with foreign institutions holding nearly 4.28 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds as of June 2025, marking a nearly 400% growth since the launch of the Bond Connect in 2017. However, foreign investors' share in the total bond market remains low at only 2.3% [1][4]. Group 1: Growth Drivers for Foreign Investment - The primary factors driving foreign investment in Chinese bonds include attractive yields, particularly after adjusting for USD, which saw a surge in investment last year [4]. - The demand for portfolio diversification is another key factor, as RMB bonds have a low correlation with financial assets from other countries, making them an important addition to investment portfolios [4]. - Passive funds tracking Chinese bond indices also contribute to the increase in foreign holdings of Chinese bonds [5]. Group 2: Role of Bond Connect - The Bond Connect mechanism has been deemed very successful, particularly for asset owners like central banks and pension funds, while overseas asset management firms and hedge funds prefer this mechanism for its familiarity with Hong Kong's infrastructure and rules [6]. - This mechanism has enhanced foreign investor participation, interest, and market liquidity [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Potential Growth - There is a belief that the foreign holding ratio in China's bond market could realistically double to 5% or even 7% in the medium to long term, given the potential for growth compared to other major markets [10]. - Current foreign investment levels in China's bond market are significantly lower than those in markets like the UK (over 30%), France (over 25%), and the US (around 10%) [9][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Market Improvement - To achieve higher foreign investment ratios, further policy measures are needed to deepen market innovation, such as allowing international investors to re-mortgage collateral and enhancing the ecosystem for comprehensive trading and hedging tools [11][12]. - The introduction of more RMB risk management tools and the establishment of mechanisms for foreign investors in credit derivatives could enhance confidence and encourage greater investment in China's credit bond market [13]. Group 5: Panda Bonds and Dim Sum Bonds - The expansion of the Panda bond market is expected to continue, driven by the attractive yield advantage of these bonds and regulatory relaxations that allow funds to be used both domestically and internationally [14]. - The offshore RMB bond market, known as Dim Sum bonds, has also seen accelerated growth, with issuance exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan last year, tripling from 2021, and contributing to the internationalization of the RMB [14].