宏观经济深度研究 货币政策跨境传导的美元渠道 全球化金融体系下，主要经济体的货币政策效应通过多重渠道跨境传导，对全 球金融稳定构成重要影响。传统理论强调利率差异与贸易竞争力两大主要渠 道，但前者难以解释风险偏好主导下的资本流动，后者在美元主导的全球贸易 格局中传导效力亦有所削弱。参考美联储近期关于货币政策传导机制的工作论 文，提出美元渠道作为货币政策跨境传导的重要补充。实证显示美元汇率本身 构成独立的风险偏好传导渠道，其强弱不仅是利差或贸易的结果，更折射出全 球风险偏好与融资环境的深层变化。美元升值推高美国杠杆贷款市场的融资利 差，其中高风险贷款利差对美元汇率波动更为敏感。美元渠道不仅强化了全球 主要央行对美联储政策取向的外部约束，也放大了美联储自身在国内金融环境 中的政策效力，并通过资本流动与风险溢价的传导进一步放大全球金融周期的 波动性与非对称性，加剧政策制定难度。综合而言，美元渠道政策传导和风险 放大器的作用意味着美联储及其他主要央行在制定政策时，不仅要权衡货币政 策效果，还需兼顾美元汇率变动带来的外溢效应，并在宏观审慎政策层面寻求 更为精细的协调与平衡。 传统货币政策跨境溢出理论的局限性。在全球化金融 ...

一方面，利率差异确实能够解释跨境资本流动的方向性，但难以刻画其规模与波动。投资者的资产配置 不仅取决于利差，还受到风险偏好与避险情绪的动态影响：在全球风险偏好上升时期，资本会加大对高 收益、高风险资产的配置，即便利差优势有限；而在避险情绪升温时，即使存在显著利率优势，资金也 可能回流至避险资产。由此可见，单一基于利差的资本流动假说难以全面反映现实中的跨境资金动态。 另一方面，贸易竞争力渠道在美元主导的全球贸易体系下亦存在明显局限。按照传统国际收支理论，本 币贬值应通过价格效应直接促进出口与抑制进口，但在美元主导的全球贸易格局中，大部分国际商品贸 易以美元计价，出口商与进口商面对的仍是相对固定的美元价格，本币对美元的波动难以及时传导至贸 易价格，汇率调整对进出口数量的作用显著减弱。因此，在美元主导的全球金融与贸易体系下，单纯依 赖利率差异和贸易竞争力两条传统路径，并不足以解释跨境货币政策溢出的复杂性。 美元升值推高美国企业融资成本 美元作为全球风险偏好的锚点，其汇率波动对全球金融条件具有非对称且放大的影响。除去利率和贸易 变化带来的影响外，美元汇率变化本身也反映了美国乃至全球金融市场的风险偏好与融资成本变化。我 ...

Group 1: Impact of Monetary Policy on Forex Market - Interest rate policy influences capital flows; rising rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for local currency, while falling rates lead to capital outflows [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 resulted in a 15% increase in the US Dollar Index [1] - Japan's negative interest rate policy has led to the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 150 in 2023 [1] Group 2: Comparison of Major Economies' Policies - The US is the global financial cycle leader, using tools like federal funds rate and quantitative easing, with a projected increase in fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion in 2025, weakening dollar credit [1][14] - The Eurozone balances trade and financial stability, with a projected increase in defense spending leading to a stronger Euro [1][17] - Japan's negative interest rate and yield curve control policies have mixed effects, with expectations of rate hikes in 2025 leading to a 4.7% appreciation of the Yen against the Dollar [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Dynamics - Resource-exporting countries like Brazil and Chile benefit from a weaker dollar, with the Chilean Peso expected to appreciate by 3.88% in 2025 [7] - Countries with high external debt, such as Turkey and Argentina, face significant currency depreciation pressures due to US rate hikes [8] Group 4: Policy Spillover and Cross-Border Mechanisms - The US monetary policy significantly influences global financial cycles through risk asset prices and capital flows [9] - The European and Latin American regions show varying sensitivities to these policies, with Europe being more affected than Asia [10] Group 5: New Trends and Strategies - The weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi, with offshore Renminbi appreciating by 1.4% in 2025 [6] - Investment strategies include going long on resource-rich currencies and shorting currencies from high-debt countries [18] Group 6: Conclusion and Market Response - Policymakers need to balance exchange rate stability, capital mobility, and monetary policy independence, especially in emerging markets [19] - Investors should focus on central bank policy expectations and consider currencies with strong economic resilience, such as the Renminbi and Swiss Franc [19]

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is undergoing rapid restructuring, with China facing multiple challenges including stabilizing growth, promoting transformation, and preventing risks [1] - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, utilizing both fiscal and monetary measures to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [1] - The divergence in global monetary policies is increasing, with the European Central Bank (ECB) set to start a rate-cutting cycle in mid-2024, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have shifted to a wait-and-see approach after several rounds of rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The concept of the "global financial cycle" provides a new framework for understanding the implementation of China's monetary policy [1] - Key variables identified in the global financial cycle include risk asset prices, total international capital flows, and private sector credit, which are highly correlated with global risk appetite indicators, commodity prices, international trade volume, and world economic growth [3] - The U.S. plays a dominant role in the global financial cycle, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes rapidly spreading globally through various channels [4][7] Group 3 - The spillover effects of monetary policy from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, significantly influence global financial conditions, capital flows, and monetary policy independence in other economies [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy leads to a rapid tightening of global financial conditions, impacting private sector credit, asset prices, and increasing financing costs, especially for emerging markets [9][19] - The ECB's monetary policy adjustments primarily affect the Eurozone's internal financial markets, with limited direct impact on other major economies, but it significantly influences global trade dynamics [10][16] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) influences the global economy mainly through international trade and commodity markets, with its monetary policy having a more indirect effect compared to the Federal Reserve and ECB [11] - The global financial cycle's expansion limits the operational space for monetary policy in open economies, as changes in U.S. monetary policy affect international capital flows and risk asset prices [21] - The coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies is essential for maintaining economic stability and enhancing financial resilience in the context of the global financial cycle [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic analysis in understanding global economic trends and the role of financial services in supporting the real economy [2][12]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Chen Dafei, the Chief Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, has 8 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, and liquidity [3]. - Chen's career includes positions at Dongfang Securities and Guojin Securities, where he led macro research teams before joining Shenwan Hongyuan Research in August 2024 [3]. Group 2: Research Insights - The significance of overseas macro research has grown since 2018, particularly due to the evolving US-China trade relations and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a resurgence of inflation [5][6]. - Chen emphasizes a paradigm shift from a "low interest rate era" to a "high volatility era," where monetary policy becomes crucial in managing inflation [5]. - His research methodology involves a unified approach of "facts-theory-history," focusing on current facts, theoretical understanding, and historical comparisons to deepen insights [9]. Group 3: Professional Development - For newcomers in the industry, a genuine passion for research is essential, as it drives continuous learning and discovery [10]. - Deep thinking skills, supported by a broad knowledge base, are critical for effective economic research [10]. - Proficiency in AI tools is increasingly necessary to enhance research efficiency, paralleling the importance of traditional office software [11]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The relationship between finance and the real economy is characterized by both unity and opposition, with financial services playing a vital role in promoting high-quality economic development [12]. - Financial systems exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, which can extend economic expansion but may also lead to instability during downturns [12]. - Long-term economic growth is driven by technological innovation, with finance playing a crucial role in supporting research and development [12]. Group 5: Cultural Influence - The integration of party-building culture within Shenwan Hongyuan Research enhances personal growth and professional thinking, aligning with the broader strategic goals of the organization [14].