外资行美债&汇率 2026 展望汇总 Contents | | 一、美债 2 | | --- | --- | | • | 美联储新领导层将如何重塑 2026 年收益率曲线?—巴克莱 2 | | • | 2026 年美国利率展望:张力与转型—汇丰 5 | | • | 2026 年美债展望:感受每一天的路径，你走哪条路?—摩根大通 8 | | • | 2026 年利率展望:全球固定收益市场分析—德意志银行 11 | | • | 固定收益 2026 年展望：更具韧性，利差为王；持续的经济韧性；财政刺 | | | 激，两次降息—美银美林 13 | | • | 2026 年核心美债供需展望:明年核心债券净供给将下降—美银美林 18 | | • | 美国利率周报:2026 年展望--宽松之战—花旗 21 | | | 二、汇率 27 | | • | 高盛 2026 年全球外汇市场展望 27 | | • | 亚洲货币:年末短暂喘息，2026 年恐重陷疲软—巴克莱 32 | | • | 2026 年货币展望：权衡利弊—汇丰 37 | | • | 中国本地市场 2026 年展望：看好人民币汇率，利率持中性态度—摩根大通 | | ...

据报道，阿波罗全球管理首席执行官Marc Rowan对投资者表示，该公司正在增加现金、降低杠杆率并 抛售风险较高的债务资产。 Rowan本月在会议中私下对投资者表示，他的"首要任务"是"尽可能拥有好的资产负债表"，以便在形势 不利时阿波罗也能表现良好并赚钱。 他在会上称，阿波罗已通过增持数百亿美元的美债及削减杠杆贷款，为旗下保险公司Athene增加了流动 性。 阿波罗的高层在12月的一次内部会议上也强调了防御姿态。 阿波罗拒绝就此置评。 责任编辑：李肇孚 据报道，阿波罗全球管理首席执行官Marc Rowan对投资者表示，该公司正在增加现金、降低杠杆率并 抛售风险较高的债务资产。 Rowan本月在会议中私下对投资者表示，他的"首要任务"是"尽可能拥有好的资产负债表"，以便在形势 不利时阿波罗也能表现良好并赚钱。 他在会上称，阿波罗已通过增持数百亿美元的美债及削减杠杆贷款，为旗下保险公司Athene增加了流动 性。 阿波罗的高层在12月的一次内部会议上也强调了防御姿态。 阿波罗拒绝就此置评。 责任编辑：李肇孚 ...

美国财政部下属货币监理署和由美国国会创设的独立机构联邦存款保险公司5日联合发布消息，宣布撤 回2013年多部门联合发布的杠杆贷款指引和相关解读文件。 （文章来源：新华社） 杠杆贷款为高负债、高杠杆或债务评级低的借款人提供资金用于并购、补充资本金、再融资、股权买断 以及业务和产品线建设等，其潜在风险在2008年金融危机期间引起监管机构注意。 美国货币监理署和联邦存款保险公司表示，2013年推出的指引和相关解读文件导致出现相关问题。受监 管银行杠杆贷款业务市场份额大幅下降，非银行机构杠杆贷款大幅增加。 一些市场分析人士认为，美国监管机构放松监管将推高银行与私人信贷机构在杠杆贷款业务上的竞争， 此外杠杆贷款本身的高风险不应被忽视。 这意味着美国银行监管机构放松了2008年全球金融危机后采取的强化银行业监管的措施。不过，作为 2013年监管措施三家联合发布机构之一的美国联邦储备委员会尚未作出同样决定。 ...

美国货币监理署和美国联邦存款保险公司表示，2013年推出的指引和相关解读文件过于富有约束性，妨 碍银行把其他业务适用的通用风险管理原则应用于杠杆贷款，从而让杠杆贷款游离于监管之外。此外， 这些监管规定过于宽泛，也没有经过国会的审议。 分析人士认为，美国监管机构放松监管将推高银行与私人信贷机构在杠杆贷款业务上的竞争。把杠杆贷 款纳入监管虽有合理性，但杠杆贷款本身的高风险不应忽视。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经纽约12月5日电（记者刘亚南）美国财政部下属货币监理署（the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ）和由美国国会创设的独立机构联邦存款保险公司（Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation）5 日联合发布消息，宣布撤回2013年多部门联合发布的杠杆贷款（leveraged lending)指引和相关解读文 件。 这意味着美国银行监管机构放松了2008年全球金融危机后采取的强化银行业监管的措施。不过，作为 2013年监管措施三家联合发布机构之一的美国联邦储备委员会尚未做出同样的决定。 杠杆贷款为高负债、高杠杆或低债务人评级的借 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook has issued a warning about the high valuations of multiple asset classes, indicating an increased likelihood of significant price declines [1] Risk Points - Cook identified four key areas of concern: the stock market, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and the real estate market, all of which are prone to sharp declines when liquidity tightens [3] - The proportion of U.S. Treasury holdings by hedge funds has surged to a record high of 10.3%, raising the risk of forced liquidations leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs if market conditions change [3] Private Credit Market - The private credit market, which accounts for 11% of U.S. GDP, is emerging as a new source of risk, with UBS predicting a potential 3 percentage point increase in default rates by 2026, surpassing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds [4] - The growing interconnection between private credit and banks/insurance institutions is concerning, as U.S. banks' loans to private credit firms have surged to nearly $300 billion, posing a risk of systemic issues if any segment falters [4] Financial System Resilience - Cook reassured that the current financial system is more resilient than in 2008, with higher bank capital adequacy ratios, making a repeat of a comprehensive crisis unlikely [5] Strategy for Long-term Investors - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation sectors, particularly those reliant on low-cost financing such as leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate [6] - Monitoring liquidity indicators is crucial, as the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool balance has plummeted from $2.55 trillion to $219 billion, indicating a thinner market buffer [6] - Holding cash for potential opportunities is recommended, as quality assets may be mispriced due to liquidity shocks, presenting long-term investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar channel fundamentally strengthens the asymmetry and pro-cyclicality of the global financial cycle, complicating policymakers' choices regardless of whether the dollar is strong or weak [1][8] Group 1: Dollar Channel as a Policy Transmission Mechanism - The dollar channel serves as an important supplement to traditional monetary policy transmission mechanisms, reflecting deeper changes in global risk appetite and financing conditions [1][5] - Empirical evidence shows that the dollar exchange rate itself constitutes an independent risk preference transmission channel, influencing capital flows and risk premiums [1][5] Group 2: Limitations of Traditional Monetary Policy Spillover Theories - Traditional theories emphasize two main channels: interest rate differentials and trade competitiveness, but these explanations are increasingly inadequate in the current financial system [3][4] - The interest rate differential can explain the direction of cross-border capital flows but fails to capture their scale and volatility, as investor behavior is also influenced by risk appetite and aversion [3] - The trade competitiveness channel is limited in a dollar-dominated global trade system, where most international trade is priced in dollars, reducing the immediate impact of currency fluctuations on trade volumes [4] Group 3: Impact of Dollar Appreciation on U.S. Corporate Financing Costs - Dollar appreciation raises financing costs for U.S. companies, with a 1% increase in the dollar leading to a 6-7 basis point rise in leveraged loan spreads, which can increase to approximately 13.8 basis points when controlling for the Eurozone yield curve [5][6] - Higher-risk loans are more sensitive to dollar fluctuations, with spreads increasing from 7.1 basis points to 18.8 basis points as risk levels rise [6] Group 4: Global Monetary Policy Shaping and Risk Cycle Amplification - The dollar channel acts as both a policy transmission intermediary and a risk cycle amplifier, potentially limiting the independence of U.S. monetary policy [7] - Dollar fluctuations create a self-reinforcing cycle between risk sentiment and financing conditions, exacerbating pro-cyclicality in the financial system [7] Group 5: Future Implications of Dollar Trends - The dollar's future trajectory is crucial for global financial stability, as both strong and weak dollar scenarios present unique challenges for policymakers [8]

Group 1 - The US leveraged loan market is under increasing pressure, with the second transaction being withdrawn this week, following a trend of multiple adjustments to attract investors [1] - Mallinckrodt, a pharmaceutical company, has suspended a $1.49 billion loan issuance plan, which was intended to lower borrowing rates by up to 0.75 percentage points [1] - Since August, a total of 8 transactions have been forced to be withdrawn due to declining investor demand for high-risk debt [1] Group 2 - The secondary market prices for US leveraged loans have been declining almost daily over the past two weeks, indicating a growing caution among investors [2] - To support the acquisition financing for MJH Life Sciences, banks completed a leveraged loan sale but had to offer one of the deepest discounts of the year to attract buyers [2] - A group of banks led by Santander is required to retain part of a $2.7 billion financing to support another acquisition, reflecting the challenges in the current market [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged over 1%, reaching a five-week high of $3401.41 before closing at $3396.91, with a slight decline observed in the Asian market [1] - The U.S. stock market saw the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices hitting historical highs, with the Nasdaq briefly surpassing 21000 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a minor decline [2] - The trade issues have resurfaced as a focal point, with the White House reaffirming its stance on tariffs [3] Group 2 - As the August 1 deadline approaches, President Trump's trade negotiation stance has become more aggressive, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that this date is a "hard deadline" for countries to start paying tariffs [5] - The European Union is considering a "nuclear option" in response to U.S. tariffs, which could involve significant retaliatory measures, including restricting U.S. companies from participating in EU public procurement [5] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of a rate cut in July is nearly zero, with traders now believing there is over a 50% chance of a cut in September [7] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "deteriorating," predicting default rates for high-yield bonds and leveraged loans to rise by 2025 [8] - Wall Street institutions are increasingly optimistic about the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the S&P 500 to rise to 6900 points in the next 12 months [10] - Foreign capital is re-evaluating Chinese assets, with around 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector [11] Group 4 - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict include a large-scale airstrike by Russia, which involved 426 drones and 24 missiles, resulting in casualties [14] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting 74 drones, including those targeting Moscow, amidst ongoing tensions and preparations for a third round of negotiations [15][16]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) and Citigroup (C.US) have initiated a €7.45 billion (approximately $8.1 billion) debt issuance to finance Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R)'s acquisition of Sanofi (SNY.US) subsidiary Opella [1][2] - The debt issuance consists of €5.45 billion in euro and dollar leveraged loans and €2 billion in bonds, with an additional €1.2 billion revolving credit facility, bringing the total financing to €8.65 billion [1] Group 1 - The global coordinators for this financing include Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, HSBC, and Société Générale [1] - The pricing for the euro portion is set at 350 basis points over Euribor, while the dollar portion is priced at 325 basis points over SOFR [1] Group 2 - CD&R's acquisition of Opella, valued at approximately €15 billion, is one of the largest transactions in Europe last year, highlighting the banks' eagerness to fund leveraged buyouts, which are among the most profitable deals in the financial sector [2] - The current economic uncertainty caused by President Trump's trade war has led many European and American companies to pause their plans to enter the higher-risk loan market [2]