Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for insight in a rapidly changing macroeconomic landscape, highlighting the importance of professional analysis from Bloomberg's economists and market experts to identify investment opportunities [1] - The focus of the 2025 Bloomberg China Market Review series is on macroeconomic patterns and market dynamics, addressing key industry concerns and providing timely updates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming event on August 5, 2025, will feature discussions on U.S.-China relations and global economic outlook, as well as an analysis of Japan's economic prospects amidst political turmoil and tariff pressures [2] - Key speakers include Bloomberg's Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific, Taro Kimura, and a senior foreign exchange specialist, indicating a strong lineup of expertise for the discussions [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a high-level perspective and insight in the face of a rapidly changing macroeconomic landscape, particularly focusing on the 2025 Bloomberg China Market Review series [1] - It highlights the upcoming event on August 5, 2025, featuring discussions on key topics such as US-China relations and global economic outlook, as well as the economic prospects for Japan amidst political turmoil and tariff pressures [2] - The event will include expert analyses from Bloomberg's chief economists and senior specialists, providing valuable insights into macro market trends and forecasts [2] Group 2 - The article indicates that the "trade truce" period is nearing its end, suggesting a critical juncture for US-China relations and its implications for the global economy [2] - It mentions the need for a thorough analysis of Japan's economic outlook in light of ongoing political instability and trade challenges [2] - The article promotes the use of terminal analysis tools to gain deeper insights into macroeconomic markets and future trends [2]

特朗普称， 将对菲律宾征收19%的关税。 菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 特朗普还称，或许最重要的是，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，包括汽车、卡车、大米以及其他 部分农产品和商品。日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。 截至目前，日本方面暂无回应。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易 协议： 对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资。 北京时间7月23日早上，日元兑美元跳水。 近期 日本市场波动引发市场关注。 据21世纪经济报道，受访专家普遍认为，未来日元将进入 贬值通道。 南开大学日本研究院教授、副院长 张玉来表示，由于日本更倾向于走财政扩张道 路，再加上日本面临美国的关税政策，这些都将推动市场卖出日元。 （→ 详情 ） 特朗普称美菲达成贸易协议 特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，美国刚刚与日本达成了一项"巨大的"协议，可能是 有史以来最大的一项。他表示，按照其指示，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元， 美国将获得其 中90%的利润 。这项协议将创造数十万个就业岗位。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上 ...

国际货币基金组织当地时间22日发布报告称，美国特朗普政府对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收进口关税的做法 或将进一步对全球宏观经济造成重大影响。报告指出，美国加征关税的行为将在短期内减少全球需求， 导致进口价格上涨并进一步加剧通胀压力。此外，关税的不确定性还可能削弱消费者和企业信心，加剧 金融市场波动。报告指出，美国加征关税的行为可能导致各国通过进一步提高贸易壁垒，来应对日益加 剧的贸易不平衡问题，从而导致地缘经济分裂加剧，这对全球经济的损害将是持久的。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index has shown a 0.55% increase, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Huada Jiutian (up 14.99%) and Xinyi Sheng (up 5.86%) [1] - The CSI 300 ETF has seen a trading volume of 1.41 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.258 billion yuan over the past year, ranking in the top three among comparable funds [1] - The latest scale of the CSI 300 ETF has reached 167.092 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [1] Group 2 - The CSI 300 Index is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.29, which is lower than 83.01% of the time since the index's inception, highlighting its attractive valuation [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index account for 22.85% of the index, with major companies including Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Times [1] Group 3 - Recent market conditions have led to a "triple kill" in U.S. assets, increasing risk aversion globally, while the A-share market is experiencing a period of adjustment [2] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the resilience of the A-share market is noted, supported by positive capital market policies and macroeconomic recovery in China [2] - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities discussed the improved ecosystem of China's capital market and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2] Group 4 - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund, allowing for low-cost entry into the market [3]

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数（4 9 . 8）环比小幅下滑，呈现"中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、 欧洲企稳、美国承压、加墨收缩"的特征。欧元区制造业PMI边际回升，出现阶段性企稳回升态 势，不过关税仍为经济复苏带来不确定性因素。4月美国ISM制造业PMI指数录得4 8 . 7，并呈现"供 需回落、通胀抬升、就业市场降温、外贸大幅回落"的特点，美国经济数据回落的趋势和海外市场 的衰退交易尚未结束。整体而言，关税对美国及全球经济的影响已经初步显现，美国经济读数或仍 小幅回落，对资本市场的扰动尚未结束，我们预计年中美国制造业PMI或仍在荣枯线以下波动运 行。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数较3月环比小幅下滑，录得4 9 . 8，关税扰动增加经济不确定 性。 4月全球制造业PMI指数环比小幅下滑，整体呈现" 中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、欧洲企稳、 美国承压、加墨收缩 "的特征。横向比较来看，亚洲新兴国家制造业表现涨跌互现，但整体相对 好于欧洲地区。 ▍ 分区域来看： 1）亚洲方面，经济表现延续分化态势，在荣枯线两侧窄幅震荡，日本、印度制造业边际回升。 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic analysis in understanding global economic trends and the role of financial services in supporting the real economy [2][12]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Chen Dafei, the Chief Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, has 8 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, and liquidity [3]. - Chen's career includes positions at Dongfang Securities and Guojin Securities, where he led macro research teams before joining Shenwan Hongyuan Research in August 2024 [3]. Group 2: Research Insights - The significance of overseas macro research has grown since 2018, particularly due to the evolving US-China trade relations and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a resurgence of inflation [5][6]. - Chen emphasizes a paradigm shift from a "low interest rate era" to a "high volatility era," where monetary policy becomes crucial in managing inflation [5]. - His research methodology involves a unified approach of "facts-theory-history," focusing on current facts, theoretical understanding, and historical comparisons to deepen insights [9]. Group 3: Professional Development - For newcomers in the industry, a genuine passion for research is essential, as it drives continuous learning and discovery [10]. - Deep thinking skills, supported by a broad knowledge base, are critical for effective economic research [10]. - Proficiency in AI tools is increasingly necessary to enhance research efficiency, paralleling the importance of traditional office software [11]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The relationship between finance and the real economy is characterized by both unity and opposition, with financial services playing a vital role in promoting high-quality economic development [12]. - Financial systems exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, which can extend economic expansion but may also lead to instability during downturns [12]. - Long-term economic growth is driven by technological innovation, with finance playing a crucial role in supporting research and development [12]. Group 5: Cultural Influence - The integration of party-building culture within Shenwan Hongyuan Research enhances personal growth and professional thinking, aligning with the broader strategic goals of the organization [14].