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华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250801
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:04
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that it will operate in a range - bound and consolidating manner, with a downward - moving price center and a pessimistic market sentiment in a supply - demand weak situation. For aluminum, it is expected to operate in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruptions**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the supply - demand weak pattern, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: As of Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. There are both restored and newly - added maintenance capacities in the South, and some northern alumina plants increased their operating capacity due to profit [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan. On July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The weekly出库 volume was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous week, reaching a new low this year [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and demand pressure restricts the upside. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3].
7月10日电,特朗普关税举措背景下,巴西股指期货下跌1.3%。
news flash· 2025-07-10 12:09
Core Insights - Under the backdrop of Trump's tariff measures, Brazilian stock index futures fell by 1.3% [1] Industry Summary - The decline in Brazilian stock index futures indicates a negative market reaction to the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, reflecting potential economic impacts on Brazil's market [1]
野村证券:日本经济不太可能陷入衰退
news flash· 2025-06-10 08:34
Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts, led by Kyohei Morita, believe that Japan's economy is unlikely to fall into recession despite potential economic slowdowns caused by U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is primarily driven by the service sector, which is expected to benefit from new stimulus measures through supplementary budgets [1] - Corporate investments in software and efforts to address labor shortages are anticipated to support Japan's economic growth [1] Risks and Challenges - The analysts caution that tariffs may exert "downward pressure" on Japan's economy from July to September [1] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to begin raising interest rates in January 2026, as indicated by the central bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized readiness to continue rate hikes if the underlying inflation rate approaches the 2% target [1]
遭法院关税禁止裁定,特朗普疑似隔空回应
news flash· 2025-05-29 12:52
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of a recent ruling by the U.S. trade court, which deemed most of President Trump's global tariff measures illegal and imposed restrictions, potentially undermining his economic agenda [1] Group 1 - President Trump posted an image on social media with the caption "Trump President is always right," seemingly in response to the trade court's ruling [1] - The ruling by the U.S. trade court represents a major setback for Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs [1]
东丽,碳纤维业务大涨71%
DT新材料· 2025-05-15 14:54
Core Viewpoint - Toray's financial performance for the fiscal year 2025 shows significant growth in sales and net profit, driven by recovery in the aerospace sector and demand for carbon fiber and composite materials [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total sales for fiscal year 2025 reached 2.56 trillion yen, a slight increase of 4.0% compared to 2.46 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024 [1]. - Core operating income surged to 142.8 billion yen, reflecting a remarkable increase of 39.1% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 77.9 billion yen, marking a substantial growth of 255.8% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The carbon fiber and composite materials segment generated approximately 300 billion yen in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with total profit reaching 22.5 billion yen, up 70.7% [1]. - Revenue from the aerospace sector was 104.9 billion yen, accounting for 35% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [3]. - The sports equipment sector achieved revenue of 29.5 billion yen, representing 10% of total revenue and a 9% increase year-on-year [3]. - The industrial sector, however, saw revenue of 165.6 billion yen, which constituted 55% of total revenue but experienced a decline of 4% [3]. Future Outlook - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Toray anticipates total revenue of 2.67 trillion yen, core operating income of 150 billion yen, and net profit of 82 billion yen, considering potential risks from U.S. trade policies [2]. - The carbon fiber and composite materials segment is projected to achieve revenue of 316 billion yen in fiscal year 2025, with an expected growth of 16.0% [2].