Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that it will operate in a range - bound and consolidating manner, with a downward - moving price center and a pessimistic market sentiment in a supply - demand weak situation. For aluminum, it is expected to operate in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruptions**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the supply - demand weak pattern, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: As of Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. There are both restored and newly - added maintenance capacities in the South, and some northern alumina plants increased their operating capacity due to profit [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan. On July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The weekly出库 volume was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous week, reaching a new low this year [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and demand pressure restricts the upside. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Ministry of Commerce anticipates that the overall inflation rate in Thailand will rise again in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1 - The Ministry expects inflationary pressures to continue affecting the economy, indicating a potential increase in consumer prices [1] - The forecast suggests that inflation may be influenced by various factors, including rising costs of goods and services [1] - The overall economic outlook may be impacted by these inflation trends, affecting both consumers and businesses [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has indicated a slowdown in economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and inflation rates slightly above the expectations set in March [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is projected to decelerate, reflecting broader economic trends [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] Inflation Rate - Inflation rates are anticipated to be marginally higher than the forecasts made in March, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - The CBO report indicates that Trump's global tariff plan will reduce the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years, but will simultaneously slow economic growth, increase inflation, and weaken household purchasing power [1] - The report predicts that tariffs will lead to an average annual inflation rate increase of 0.4 percentage points from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The CBO's analysis assumes that the tariff policies announced by the Trump administration will be implemented long-term, despite previous court rulings questioning the legality of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The CBO concludes that the $2.8 trillion deficit reduction will come at the cost of reduced household wealth and a contraction in the overall economy, estimating a permanent decrease in the annual GDP growth rate of 0.06 percentage points [1] - The OECD's global economic outlook report predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% by 2026 [2] - The CBO emphasizes significant uncertainty in its estimates due to the potential for the Trump administration to adjust tariff policies at any time [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently concerned about both rising inflation and increasing unemployment, presenting a challenging situation for the central bank [1] Group 1 - Analysts anticipate that Jerome Powell will be questioned about which risk, inflation or unemployment, poses a greater threat [1]