Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, with a focus on potential recovery in manufacturing and consumer demand during the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3]. Core Insights - Tariff expectations have eased, with indications from U.S. Treasury Secretary that there is no intention to decouple from China in textiles and related goods, leading to a significant reduction in tariff-related anxiety [3]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with leading manufacturers showing strong resilience and potential for market share growth, particularly companies like Zhejiang Ziran, Kairun, and Huali Group [3]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic consumption, particularly benefiting beauty and personal care brands, as well as discretionary consumer goods [3]. Industry Data Tracking Retail Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with clothing and cosmetics showing growth rates of 3.6% and 1.1%, respectively [17][18]. Raw Material Prices - The Cotlook A index for cotton increased by 0.9% to 13,899, while the Chinese cotton price index decreased by 0.4% to 14,122 [19]. - Polyester filament prices saw increases, with POY, FDY, and DTY rising by 4.0%, 3.1%, and 2.4% respectively [19]. Export Data - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports rose by 14.77% year-on-year in March, with footwear exports increasing by 15.77% [25]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies in high-growth sectors with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and 361°, and those with business adjustments leading to high elasticity, like Hailan Home and Semir Apparel [6]. - Retail sector companies like Steady Medical and Dekang Oral are highlighted for their potential dual benefits from consumption boosts and valuation adjustments [6].

2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业周报 看好/维持 纺织服装 纺织服装 纺服&零售周报:制造端有望企稳回升，关注 618 大促催化(2025. 5.5-5.11) ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 24/5/13 24/7/24 24/10/4 24/12/15 25/2/25 25/5/8 纺织服装 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<纺服&零售周报：美护品牌 Q1 表现 亮眼，个护景气度向上(2025.4. 28- 5.4)>>--2025-05-06 <<稳健医疗 24 年报及 25Q1 财报点 评：消费品业务加速成长，核心品类 增速亮眼>>--2025-04-29 <<健盛集团 24 年财报点评：业绩符 合预期，期待无缝利润弹性释放>>-- 2025-04-28 证券分析师：郭彬 电话： E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 报告摘要 本周核心观点：1）关税预期缓和：根据商务部新闻发布，5 月 10 日 上午中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，中共中央政治局委员、国 务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人。5 ...

每日观点 简评：虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观 政策协同发力，高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域如食品制造业等消费品行业以及高技术产业相关行业价 格呈现积极变化。整体来看，4月物价低位运行，近期降准降息等一揽子金融政策出台，有望为后续价 格合理回升提供支撑，CPI有望保持温和，PPI在外部影响下或仍将承压。 【博时市场点评5月12日】关税预期缓和，两市放量上涨 今日A股三大指数上涨，创业板涨幅超2%，两市成交较前一交易日放量至1.34万亿。据央视消息，中美 在日内瓦举行的经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机 制，双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于今日发布会谈达成的联合声明。受此影响，今日市场风险偏好有 所提升，此次瑞士接触，是推动问题解决的重要一步，后续双边互征的关税可能有所下降，但问题的最 终解决仍需耐心和战略定力。4月的出口数据好于预期，同比增长8.1%，其中对美出口大幅下跌21%， 对东南亚出口提升，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。4月CPI同比下跌0.1%，PPI同比下跌2.7%，后续CPI 有望保持温和，PPI或在外部影响 ...

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between China and the United States are ongoing, with China asserting that it will not accept any vague attitudes or preconditions from the U.S. [1] - China emphasizes the mutual benefits of trade but insists on not being coerced into accepting unequal terms imposed by the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the ChiNext index rising by 2%, indicating a focus on technology and small-cap stocks [3] - The continuation of the market rally depends on trading volume; sustained volume is necessary for the market to rise further [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 60-day and half-year moving averages, with a target of 3326 points [3] Group 3 - A significant trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan was recorded, an increase of 170 billion yuan from the previous day, with nearly 5000 stocks rising [5] - The positive market conditions are attributed to the appreciation of the yuan and easing tariff expectations, leading to a favorable outlook for May [5] - The market is expected to remain strong, with a focus on maintaining upward trends in stock prices [5] Group 4 - The A-share market opened positively in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and returning to the 3300-point level, with nearly 5000 stocks in the green [7] - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of more favorable conditions ahead, as previous negative factors have been addressed [7] - A gradual upward trend is preferred over rapid increases, as there are still significant resistance levels to overcome [7]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise following a strong performance on May 2, with multiple ETFs tracking the Hong Kong market showing significant gains [1] - Several ETFs, including the Silverhua New Economy ETF and the GF China Concept Internet ETF, saw increases of over 3% [1] ETF Performance - The New Economy ETF increased by 4.25% year-to-date, while the China Concept Internet ETF rose by 3.82% [2] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF recorded a year-to-date increase of 19.56%, indicating strong performance in the consumption sector [2] Economic Indicators - Market sentiment is expected to improve due to easing tariff expectations and the release of annual and quarterly earnings reports [6] - The manufacturing PMI for April was below expectations, but the impact on Hong Kong stocks is limited due to low dependency on export chains [6] Profitability and Growth - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks is projected to rise in 2024, with net profit growth expected to be 9.8% for the full year [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) for Hong Kong stocks is anticipated to slightly increase to 7.0% in 2024, driven by improved asset turnover [7] Sector Analysis - The information technology, financial, and healthcare sectors are expected to show the most significant profitability improvements in 2024 [7][8] - Consumer staples and certain discretionary sectors are experiencing a marginal decline in profit growth, particularly in food retail and household goods [7]