分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 2025 年 08 月 26 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/8/26 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 2025/8/19》2025-08-19 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/12》2025-08-12 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/8/5》2025-08-05 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/7/29》2025-07-29 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/7/22》2025-07-22 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种 ...

ETF网格策略 ETF网格黄浆量点线 活动 (1) 标普消费ETF (159529.SZ) 当地时间8月13日,美国财政部长贝森特表 示，美联储9月可能会大幅降息50个基点。根据美 国劳工部数据显示,截至8月16日当周,美国首次 申请失业救济人数达到23.5万,为今年6月20日以 来最高。与此同时,美国8月9日当周续请失业救济 人数达到197.2万人，为自2021年11月以来最高水 平,显示美国劳动力市场降温趋势愈发明显。在此 背景下,当地时间8月21日，美联储主席鲍威尔在 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放"鸽派"信号: "短期内,通胀风险向上倾斜,就业风险向下倾 斜 ……可能需要调整我们的政策立场"。9月降息预 期再次升温，若降息成为现实，将对提振美国居民 消费需求构成利好。另外，据央视新闻，美国总统 特朗普已于当地时间8月11日签署行政令,对中国 的关税暂停措施再延长90天。此举短期内避免了新 增关税对美国国内消费价格与居民消费意愿的冲 击。 图1:标普消费 ETF(159529.SZ) 网格策略回测收益曲线 ETF (159529 SZ) 注:回测区间为近 120交易日,数据成至2025/8/25;由于数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various ETF strategies and highlights specific ETFs that are expected to benefit from current economic conditions and government policies in China and the U.S. [3][5][7] Group 1: U.S. Economic Impact on ETFs - The S&P Consumer ETF (159529.SZ) is influenced by weakening U.S. economic data, cooling inflation expectations, and political factors, with suggestions for a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][5] - The extension of tariff suspension on China by U.S. President Trump is expected to mitigate the impact of new tariffs on U.S. consumer prices and spending [3] Group 2: Domestic Policy Support for ETFs - The Xinchuang ETF (562570.SH) is set to benefit from a 1 trillion yuan investment in over 8,400 projects across various sectors, including electronics and energy equipment, as part of a government initiative to support domestic industries [5][6] - The ETF tracks the Zhongzheng Xinchuang Index, focusing on the domestic replacement of chips, hardware, software, and servers, which aligns with national security and industrial safety goals [5] Group 3: New Economic Growth and ETFs - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) aligns with the government's focus on developing new productive forces and promoting technology and industrial innovation [7][8] - This ETF indirectly tracks the S&P China New Economy Industry Index, investing in leading companies across high-growth sectors such as internet technology, consumer upgrades, healthcare, and fintech [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the AI-themed ETFs, particularly the Kexin Composite Index ETF managed by Harvest, was driven by a small transaction that caused a significant price increase, raising concerns about the impact of low trading volumes on market stability [1][4][6]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Kexin Composite Index ETF managed by Harvest closed at 1.342 CNY per share, marking a 20.04% increase due to a single transaction of 134 CNY that triggered a trading halt [4][8]. - On July 25, multiple AI-related ETFs saw significant gains, with most rising over 4%, indicating a broader market interest in AI stocks [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The small scale of the Kexin Composite Index ETF, with a total size of only 101 million CNY, contributed to its susceptibility to price fluctuations from minimal trading activity [5][6]. - Analysts noted that the price spike did not attract follow-up buying from other investors, suggesting that the market may stabilize in the following trading sessions [2][8]. Group 3: AI Sector Trends - The AI sector experienced a notable rebound on July 25, with significant gains in stocks like Cambrian and Aojie Technology, highlighting investor interest in AI-related companies [9]. - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC), which commenced on July 26, was identified as a key catalyst for the recent uptick in AI stock prices, showcasing over 3,000 cutting-edge technology exhibits [10]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in the components of the AI industry, with a reported 3.73% market value share as of the end of Q2, reflecting a growing confidence in the sector's potential [11]. - Analysts predict that the demand for AI-related infrastructure, such as servers and data centers, will see explosive growth, positively impacting the financial performance of related companies in the coming quarters [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [4][13] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [4][13] Group 2 - The report highlights specific ETFs for grid trading, starting with the Asia-Pacific Selected ETF (159687.SZ), which tracks the FTSE Russell Asia Low Carbon Selected Index and covers major companies in sectors like semiconductors and internet [4][14] - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) is noted for capturing new growth drivers in China's economy, holding leading companies across various high-growth sectors such as AI and biotechnology [5][18] - The Germany ETF (159561.SZ) tracks the DAX index, benefiting from Germany's economic stimulus policies, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [6][20] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200.SH) is highlighted for its potential driven by domestic substitution and AI computing demand, with significant growth expected in AI-related device shipments [7][21]

Market Overview - As of May 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.47% at 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 10040.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% at 1993.19 points, indicating a broad market decline [1] - The total trading volume of both markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors in terms of gains were the breeding industry (up 2.81%), rural commercial banks (up 1.70%), and chemical pharmaceuticals (up 1.21%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were packaging and printing (down 3.15%), electric machinery (down 2.83%), and consumer electronics (down 2.72%) [1] ETF Performance - A total of 208 non-currency ETFs rose, with an increase ratio of 18% [1] - The CSI Modern Agriculture Theme Index rose by 1.47%, with the E Fund Agriculture ETF increasing by 1.91% [1] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index increased by 1.38%, with various livestock ETFs showing gains between 1.36% and 1.91% [1] Specific ETF Details - The Livestock ETF (516760.SH) has a latest share size of 205 million, closely tracking the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which includes major companies like Haida Group and Muyuan Foods [3] - The Agriculture 50 ETF (159827.SZ) has a share size of 136 million, tracking the CSI Agriculture Theme Index, which includes companies like Muyuan Foods and Haida Group [4] - The current P/E ratio for the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 12.55, which is lower than the average over the past three years [4] - The P/E ratio for the CSI Agriculture Theme Index is 14.73, also below the average for the past three years [4] Declining ETFs - A total of 901 non-currency ETFs fell, with a decline ratio of 79% [4] - The top declining ETFs included the Xinchuang ETF (down 5.19%) and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (down 2.77%) [6] Premium Rates - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index showed a premium of 24.33%, while the S&P 500 ETF had a premium of 18.25% [7][9]

Group 1: Fund News - Several North Exchange funds have announced purchase limits, with the E Fund North Certificate 50 Index limiting purchases to 3,000 yuan starting May 19, and the Pengyang North Certificate 50 Index reducing the limit to 50,000 yuan from May 13 [1] - A total of 19 Hong Kong-themed funds have been reported since May, covering various sectors such as innovative drugs, cloud computing, consumption, and automobiles [1] - Public funds have invested nearly 10 billion yuan in private placements this year, with 21 public institutions participating in 31 A-share companies' private placements, totaling 9.785 billion yuan [1] Group 2: ETF Market Review - The market experienced a rise and then a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.83%. The total trading volume reached 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Gold-related stocks performed strongly, with gold stock ETFs rising by as much as 4.85% [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - The top-performing gold stock ETFs include: - Code 159562: Gold Stock ETF, up 4.85% to 1.557 - Code 517520: Gold Stock ETF, up 4.63% to 1.423 - Code 159322: Gold Stock ETF, up 4.51% to 1.158 [3] - The S&P Consumer ETF led the decline, down 2.29% [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The rising gold prices are driving new growth trends in the industry, with the investment value of gold products becoming more prominent. This is expected to boost sales of investment-grade gold bars and brands with high cost-performance ratios [5] - The improvement in consumer spending, advancements in gold craftsmanship, and the rise of domestic brands are expected to provide strong growth momentum for the gold and jewelry industry [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the mixed performance of ETFs, with gold stock ETFs showing significant gains while others, such as the S&P Consumer ETF, experienced declines [1] - Gold stock ETF (159562) led the gains with an increase of 4.85%, followed by gold stock ETF (517520) at 4.63%, and gold stock ETF fund (159322) at 4.51% [1] - In contrast, the S&P Consumer ETF (159529) was the biggest loser, down by 2.29%, while MSCI ESG ETF (159621) fell by 1.92%, and New Economy ETF (159822) decreased by 1.4% [1]

Group 1: Fund News - Vanguard Fund announces Wang Chongkun as the new chairman, effective May 16, with a background in major financial institutions [1] - Xinhua Fund has invested 10 million yuan of its own funds to purchase shares in the Xinhua Active Value Mixed Fund A class on May 14, following a previous investment of 10.5194 million yuan in April [1] - The first batch of innovative floating fee rate products based on performance benchmarks has been submitted, with 26 fund managers participating, including 21 leading firms in active equity management [1] Group 2: Market Commentary - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing unchanged, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.08% and 0.33% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.09 trillion yuan, down by 30.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - New economy ETFs led the gains with a rise of 2.01%, while real estate ETFs also performed well [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - The New Economy ETF rose by 2.01%, while the 1000 Enhanced ETF and Real Estate ETFs increased by 1.81% and 1.62% respectively [3] - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF led the declines with a drop of 2.96%, followed by the Engineering Machinery ETF and Hong Kong Automobile ETF, both down over 1.5% [4] Group 4: Real Estate Sector Insights - The real estate sector is expected to benefit from positive fiscal and monetary policies due to current supply-demand imbalances and declining sales data, which have led to an oversupply of commercial housing [5] - The introduction of new policies aimed at improving housing conditions is anticipated to further stimulate demand and support the industry's stable development, making real estate ETFs a potential area of interest [5]

Group 1 - The military industry sector is experiencing significant growth, with the military leader ETF (512710) rising over 1% and key stocks such as Haige Communication (002465) hitting the daily limit, while other major companies also saw increases of over 2% [2][3] - The recent success of China's export fighter jet, the J-10CE, in combat has garnered global attention, enhancing the demand for military products amid the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict [2] - Analysts from Zhonghang Securities indicate that the India-Pakistan conflict has stimulated short-term interest in the military sector, with a focus on new areas such as unmanned equipment and satellite internet [2] Group 2 - The New Economy ETF (159822) led the market with a rise of 2.87%, while the S&P Consumer ETF (159529) and Real Estate ETF (515060) also showed positive performance [1][2] - Conversely, the Low Volatility Dividend ETF (560520) experienced the largest decline at 3.14%, followed by the Hong Kong Auto ETF (520600) and Engineering Machinery ETF (159542) with declines of 1.96% and 1.88% respectively [3][4]