| 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [起始交易日期] 本年初 [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 801050.SL | 有色金属 | 92.64 | | 2 | 801770.SL | 通信 | 87.27 | | 3 | 801080.SL | 电子 | 49.40 | | ব | 801230.SL | 综合 | 44.90 | | 5 | 801730.SL | 电力设备 | 43.12 | 而这轮有色牛中，有一把特别锋利的"矛"——有色矿业（931892.CSI），不仅是A股6只有色指数中唯一实现年内涨幅翻倍（超102%）的指数，而且成分股 的"有色金属"含量也是6只指数中最高。 | 롭을 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ [起始交易日期] 本年初 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 931892.CSI | 有色矿业 | 102.50 | | 2 | 00081 ...

中信建投宏观首席周君芝最近研究指出，今年的宏观浪潮推升金价暴涨，趋势演绎之下这些宏观浪潮将 会在2026年将推升铜。关于新旧秩序重构，2025年"旧秩序坍塌"（金价拉升），2026年铜将定价新秩序 构建（铜价拉升）。关税2.0时代引发的全球经贸秩序重塑，将会推动供应链体系加速重构，铜作为工 业制造核心基础原料，其需求场景随产业链转移同步拓展。关于大国博弈，2025年大国博弈聚焦在关税 冲击（金价拉升），2026年大国博弈将朝着科技和安全迈进（铜价拉升）。在大国竞争背景下，AI产 业浪潮催生的新动能需求将会持续释放，AI 数据中心等领域将带来铜消费增长。关于传统信用部门 的"喘气"，2025年大国聚焦关税博弈（金价拉升），2026年大国将重回内需平稳，中美都如是（铜价拉 升）。货币宽松政策逐步传导至传统工业板块，制造业景气度改善将直接联动铜的旧动能需求板块回 暖，巩固铜需求基本盘。 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on the resilience of the Chinese economy and the effective paths for financial empowerment in the context of the "Tariff 2.0 Era" [1][3] - Key discussions included China's positioning in the global capital market, the role of finance in supporting the real economy, and strategies for international participation in Chinese finance [5][6] Group 1: Global Market Trends - The global market has entered a new era of security, with geopolitical, economic, and fiscal safety becoming focal points; the U.S. government debt has reached 120% of GDP, and global central bank gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996 [6] - A technological revolution led by AI is reshaping the global market landscape, with AI-related companies contributing over 70% to the earnings growth of the S&P 500 index [6] - The K-shaped recovery is intensifying, leading to widening disparities between countries and social classes [6] - China's status as a major power is steadily rising, maintaining the world's largest manufacturing scale for 15 consecutive years, with enhanced industrial foundation and innovation capabilities [6] Group 2: Local Economic Development - Local governments should adopt a systemic approach to economic and social development, breaking the limitations of focusing solely on economic factors; the Yangtze River Delta region accounts for 40% of the national economy [7] - Key dimensions for local economic development include a holistic view, dialectical perspectives, cross-disciplinary thinking, and overall coordination with central policies [7][8] Group 3: Financial Empowerment and Investment Strategies - The forum emphasized the importance of financial empowerment in enhancing economic resilience, with discussions on how industries can extend towards market and demand sides to unlock valuation potential [10] - Investment strategies highlighted include focusing on high-dividend assets in the A-share market by 2025 and exploring opportunities in commercial aerospace, domestic computing, and intelligent technologies by 2026 [11] - The medical industry faces challenges from tariffs and trade barriers, necessitating overseas expansion and supply chain autonomy to mitigate risks [11] Group 4: Future Directions - The forum aimed to create a platform for deep dialogue among various sectors, with hopes of continuously gathering wisdom and strength to support the steady development of the Chinese economy in the Tariff 2.0 era [12]

Group 1 - The global trade landscape is undergoing rapid restructuring, entering a more challenging "Tariff 2.0 era" characterized by broader implications, higher average tariffs, and more pronounced factional divisions [1] - The Shanghai University of Finance and Economics hosted a forum focused on "The Path for Chinese Enterprises in the Tariff 2.0 Era," aiming to explore strategies and opportunities for Chinese companies under new tariff policies [1] - The forum emphasized the need for a practical dialogue mechanism, innovative talent cultivation models, and contributions of Chinese wisdom to global governance [1] Group 2 - Companies are facing challenges in overseas financing, with banks raising requirements for outbound financing, including the need for loans from qualified foreign banks and ESG compliance [1][2] - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition is leading to a decline in market share for Chinese companies in overseas markets, necessitating industry associations to establish standards to prevent vicious competition [2] - To mitigate trade risks, companies are encouraged to diversify exports and upgrade transshipment trade, with suggestions to explore new intermediary countries like the UAE for better trade relations with the U.S. [2] Group 3 - A roundtable discussion revealed that 80% of surveyed foreign trade enterprises in Suzhou achieved positive growth despite adverse external conditions, showcasing the resilience of private export enterprises [5] - The government of Suzhou is actively involved in addressing foreign trade issues to prevent potential social problems arising from factory shutdowns and employee layoffs [5] - Companies are adapting to increased tariffs by maintaining existing trade methods, leveraging cost advantages, and utilizing transshipment trade to circumvent tariff barriers [5][6] Group 4 - Different sizes and types of companies exhibit varying strategies in response to tariffs, with those possessing core competitiveness being less affected [6] - Traditional B2B companies with less bargaining power face significant pressure from sudden tariff increases, potentially leading to order cancellations or delays [6] - High-tech industries with irreplaceable products can mitigate tariff impacts through price adjustments, while smaller sellers may benefit from shifts in sales volume due to changes in platform traffic [6]

Core Insights - The global political and economic landscape is evolving under Trump's second term, with the U.S. market still holding strategic value for Chinese companies' globalization efforts [1] - Chinese enterprises need to enhance their capabilities in international rule interpretation and establish dynamic response mechanisms in supply chain restructuring and compliance management [1] Group 1: Trade Policy and Tariffs - Trump's trade policy is characterized by five strategic directions, including unilateral trade policies and the weakening of multilateral rules [3][4] - Tariff mechanisms include IEEPA tariffs raising Chinese imports by 20%, 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products, and a significant increase in counter-tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - The Geneva Joint Statement led to a temporary suspension of tariff increases on certain goods, indicating a phase of balance in tariff negotiations [4] Group 2: Supply Chain Risks and Compliance - Supply chain risk management is crucial for internationalization, with origin rules posing significant risks [5] - Common misconceptions about origin rules can lead to unnecessary tariff burdens and compliance risks, emphasizing the need for a detailed understanding of U.S. customs regulations [5] - ESG compliance has become a global regulatory focus, requiring companies to integrate supply chain compliance with ESG management to navigate complex international regulations [6] Group 3: Economic Sanctions and Legal Risks - Chinese companies engaging in U.S. business must adhere to U.S. economic sanctions to avoid severe penalties and asset freezes [7] - The "long-arm jurisdiction" of U.S. law poses significant challenges for Chinese enterprises, with many facing legal difficulties due to unfamiliarity with U.S. legal systems [8] - Key legal challenges include a lack of understanding of U.S. legal rules, external pressures from trade tensions, and high costs associated with legal compliance [9] Group 4: Supply Chain Restructuring Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt strategic supply chain restructuring to mitigate risks and enhance efficiency, with three main approaches suggested: relocating production to third countries, separating overseas and domestic operations, and establishing local production in the U.S. [10][11]