Core Viewpoint - The current surge in metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, is driven by a severe imbalance between weak supply and resilient demand, with significant implications for the commodity market in 2026 [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The core contradiction in the recent rise of copper and aluminum prices lies in the "extreme fragility of supply" versus the "sustained resilience of demand" [3]. - Copper mining capital expenditure is projected to be only $92.3 billion in 2024, which is just 48% of the peak levels seen in 2013 when adjusted for inflation, indicating a tight supply situation for the next 5-10 years [3]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity has been capped at 45 million tons since 2017, with virtually no new capacity expected by 2026, leading to a situation where supply elasticity has nearly vanished [3]. - Emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and data centers account for over 80% of the new consumption growth in non-ferrous metals, demonstrating a profound shift in demand structure [3][4]. Inventory and Market Structure - Since the second half of 2025, global visible copper inventories have been declining, with spot prices shifting from contango to backwardation, indicating immediate supply-demand tightness [4]. - The persistence of spot price backwardation is a key indicator for investors to monitor, as a shift back to contango could signal a demand suppression due to high prices [4]. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's price performance is influenced by its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset, with significant potential for price increases driven by photovoltaic applications and speculative investment [5][6]. - The anticipated growth in photovoltaic installations is tempered by a decrease in silver consumption per unit due to technological advancements, which could limit demand growth [5]. - The current gold-silver ratio suggests that silver is undervalued relative to gold, which historically leads to a price correction in silver when gold prices rise [5]. Volatility and Market Outlook for 2026 - The market is expected to experience increased volatility in 2026, with metal price fluctuations potentially exceeding 3,000 yuan, necessitating the use of options for risk management [7]. - Structural opportunities will be highly differentiated, with metals like copper, lithium, aluminum, and silver likely to strengthen, while others like zinc, lead, and nickel may remain stagnant without policy or demand support [8]. - The cobalt market is particularly noteworthy, with potential supply reductions of up to 50% due to export quota regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting the need for close monitoring of policy impacts [8]. Macro Narrative Influence - Macro factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and potential tariffs on key metals, are expected to play a significant role in shaping metal prices in 2026 [9]. - The current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are viewed as preventive rather than recessionary, which could positively impact metal demand [9]. - Investors are advised to balance industrial insights with macroeconomic trends, adjusting their strategies based on the interplay between these factors [9].

2025年最后一天，贵金属又出现大波动了，白银昨天晚上的反弹幅度很明显，一度上涨了10%，几乎将此前大阴线的大部分都吞吃了，本来大家以为短期内 走稳了，结果今天开盘低开低走，盘中的最大跌幅达到了近10%，也就是说昨天晚上好不容易反弹上去的成果又跌没了。 其实这里可以做一个简单的判断，白银在70美元之前走势还算温和，没有出现单日过大的涨幅，也没有呈现出多空的过度分歧，就是从70美元之上开始单日 暴涨和大跌，说明市场对70美元之上显得很纠结，多空双方之间的争夺也很激烈，此时当一个看客比较好，如果70美元最终守不住的话，下一步多头来说就 较为不利了，也会对整个有色金属会形成短期偏空的影响。 尽管市场看起来非常不错，但是我们要重视一个现象，沪指的收红主要是受到了两股力量的加持，一个是券商早盘的拉升，但是后来券商全面走弱了，这个 时候银行就充当了拉升指数的核心力量，才使得最终收盘维持了一种强势。 仔细看看沪指的走势图，已经连续4天在3980点之下震荡了，而且连续三天的高点在下移，这实际上为节后的行情埋下了伏笔，到底是直接突破4000点呢， 还是就此暂时打住，展开震荡行情，如果这个时候看看上证指数的年线，阳线的实体非常明 ...

| 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [起始交易日期] 本年初 [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 801050.SL | 有色金属 | 92.64 | | 2 | 801770.SL | 通信 | 87.27 | | 3 | 801080.SL | 电子 | 49.40 | | ব | 801230.SL | 综合 | 44.90 | | 5 | 801730.SL | 电力设备 | 43.12 | 而这轮有色牛中，有一把特别锋利的"矛"——有色矿业（931892.CSI），不仅是A股6只有色指数中唯一实现年内涨幅翻倍（超102%）的指数，而且成分股 的"有色金属"含量也是6只指数中最高。 | 롭을 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ [起始交易日期] 本年初 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 931892.CSI | 有色矿业 | 102.50 | | 2 | 00081 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/30 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/23 -440 4777 95805 49543 -1909.24 -498.41 55.0 54.0 13.16 158575 48875 2025/12/24 -465 5208 95805 52222 -2003.83 -422.80 55.0 54.0 19.69 157025 46525 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 变化 90 582 0 7231 - -3091.77 -2.0 ...

作者|哥吉拉 数据支持| 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 12月26日，在海外市场因节日休市的背景下，中国商品市场迎来年内最壮观的一幕。 还有沪铜主力也出现加速疯涨，盘中最高冲至99730元/吨，离10万元大关仅一步之遥，最终收涨3.60%报98720元/吨。 碳酸锂主力合约也暴涨了8.12%，最高触及131000元/吨，创下2023年11月以来的新高。 股市方面，得益于期货多个有色品种的集体飙升，今日贵金属以及锌、铜、铅、钴、镍等工业金属及其细分概念几乎霸榜A股涨幅榜，并吸引主力资金大规 模的净流入。 | 名称 | | 米幅961 | 年初至今 | 二力净额 | 5日涨幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 海南自贸区 | +4.32% | +45.73% | +15.84Z | 12.58 | 439.61亿 | | 2 | 金属锌 | +3.61% | +87.29% | +7.63亿 | 5.12 | 394.41亿 | | 3 | | +3.30% | +85.29% | +7.88亿 | 4.63 | 385 ...

长沙晚报掌上长沙12月23日讯（全媒体记者 刘军）A股三大指数23日集体红盘报收。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.07%，收报3919.98点；深证成指涨0.27%，收报13368.99点；创业板指涨0.41%，收报3205.01点。沪深 两市成交18998亿元，较22日小幅放量379亿元。 到23日为止，大盘已经上攻到了3936点附近，从低点反弹超过百点。大盘23日冲高回落，主要原因有三 点，一是22日深证成指与创业板指留下的缺口没有回补，二是成交量没有明显放大，三是主力资金大幅 流出影响做多的人气。因为昨日留下的缺口是周缺口，所以，大盘应该还会有回踩，并且，大盘首先是 要回踩5日均线（3894点）附近，如果在这里不能企稳回升，大盘回踩的第二个支撑点在3816点附近。 并且，大盘目前在3816与3815点形成了双底，所以大盘回踩到这里的概率并不大。 从盘面上看，有色金属板块23日集体爆发。消息面上，贵金属价格继续全面上涨。白银期货主力合约盘 中涨幅超过4%，盘中再创历史新高；黄金期货也出现了大涨，刺激了有色金属板块走强。考虑到美联 储还有降息，外部环境也有不确定性，黄金等有色金属应该还有行情，但追涨还需谨慎。 商业航 ...

有色金属板块强者恒强！今日（12月22日）同标的指数规模最大*的有色ETF华宝（159876）跳空大 涨，场内价格一度涨超2.9%，上探ETF上市以来的高点（0.958元），最终收涨2.37%，全天成交额6651 万元，环比放量28%。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨89.68%，大幅跑赢 沪指（26.51%）、沪深300（28.48%）等主要指数。 细分方向来看，铜业龙头白银有色涨停，小金属龙头云南锗业、白银龙头湖南白银纷纷涨逾7%，稀土 龙头广晟有色、黄金龙头西部黄金等个股跟涨。权重股方面，紫金矿业、山东黄金涨超4%。 业内人士指出，本轮有色金属行情驱动因素复杂，各细分板块逻辑存在明显差异。其中，工业金属（如 铜、铝）的核心驱动力更偏重经济周期的景气度变化；而贵金属（如黄金）作为"货币的锚"，其行情主 要受全球货币因素、风险事件变化等推动；小金属则更多与相关产业创新、细分产业政策等因素挂钩。 具体来看： 展望后市，中金公司认为，有色金属将成为2026年上涨趋势的"第一梯队"。高盛、摩根大通和美国银行 均认为，黄金价格有望在2026年挑战5000美元/盎司的历史新高，央行购金成为支 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 美国 11 月通胀数据低于预期，而美元指数偏稳，铜价震荡，昨日伦铜 3M 合约小幅收跌 0.13%至 11727 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92870 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 2650 至 164275 吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector in A-shares has experienced a remarkable rally in 2025, with an annual increase of 73.67%, surpassing the communication sector and leading the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant individual stock performances, with Srey New Materials (688102.SH) leading with a 340.01% increase, and several other leading companies like Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) and Xinyi Silver Tin (000426.SZ) also showing over 150% gains [1] - A total of 26 stocks in the sector have doubled in value, marking 2025 as a standout year for A-shares [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently 0.7 percentage points ahead of the second-place communication sector in annual growth, with only 12 trading days left in the year [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, the non-ferrous metal sector has never topped the annual growth rankings, achieving second place twice since 2000 but failing to maintain consecutive years in the top five [5] - The sector's past performance has been closely tied to super cycles in commodities and global monetary easing, with notable declines following previous peaks [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming year, 2026, poses a critical question: whether the non-ferrous metal sector will follow historical patterns of correction or break the "champion curse" [2][6] - The sector's high valuation levels present a challenge for continued growth, with the non-ferrous metal index reaching a historical high of 7499.07 points, approximately 17% below the previous peak in 2007 [6] - Analysts suggest that the performance of the sector in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of metal prices and demand, with specific drivers identified for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [7][8]

来源：中国能源网 锑：本周锑价环比下降1.72%。近期价格回调系投机资金获利了结；我们仍然看好出口修复后带来的内 外同涨。资源紧缺，海外大矿减产带来全球供应显著下滑，需求平稳，全球锑价上行趋势不改。建议关 注华锡有色、湖南黄金。锡：本周锡价环比上涨5.48%。据SMM，刚果局势和东南亚局势升级，均显著 提升市场对于锡供应扰动加剧预期；近期价格大涨，我们认为除却对标铜的趋势交易和供应扰动，更多 反应的是全产业链低库存；结合目前库存水平加速去化，即便佤邦复产推进，我们认为无论宏观情绪如 何，锡价易涨难跌、上一台阶为既定事实。推荐华锡有色。 国金证券近日发布有色金属行业研究：本周(12月8日-12月12日)COMEX金价+2.60%至4329.8美元/盎 司，美债10年期TIPS下降0.02个百分点至1.93%。SPDR黄金持仓增加4.01吨至1053.12吨。本周黄金地缘 政治风险以及美联储降息等因素影响，市场整体呈现强势震荡格局。 以下为研究报告摘要： 铜：本周LME铜价-0.96%到11552.5美元/吨，沪铜+1.40%到9.41万元/吨。供应端，据SMM，进口铜精 矿加工费周度指数跌至-43.1美元/吨； ...