Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - **Logic**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - **Viewpoint**: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - **Logic**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - **Alumina**: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - **Refined Zinc**: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - **Galvanizing**: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - **Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]

Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]

宏观扰动减弱 有色金属继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 | C | 不长沉试券 WILL HIT | S B 长江湖景 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CHANGJIANG SECURITIES | CHANGJIANG FUTURES | 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 宏观扰动减弱，但美方不断施压，中美仍在博弈，关税问题上反复的可能性仍存。基本面上，刚果（金）卡库拉部分地区因地震因素开采作业短期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位偏强震荡 | 暂停，巴拿马铜矿则复产前景不明，矿端干扰仍在持续。铜精矿现货TC跌至-44美元/吨一线有所企稳，冶炼厂成本压力限制了价格进一步下行空 | | | 铜 | 76000-79500 | 间 ...