数据显示，由张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选目前仍是管理规模最大的公募基金，最新规模达到349.43亿元， 截至8月29日，该基金的年内收益率为12.85%。 半年报显示，截至2025年年中，易方达蓝筹精选的隐形重仓股包括分众传媒、美团、港交所等。其中，分 众传媒和美团的持仓变化较为明显：分众传媒的持仓相对上期增长13.76%，美团则相对上期减少 46.43%。这一调仓动作或与外卖行业竞争加剧有关，美团盈利预期承压，也体现出张坤对互联网平台估 值逻辑的重新审视。 从易方达蓝筹精选第11至20名的隐形重仓股来看，出现了多只新进标的，包括贝壳、钧崴电子、汉朔科技 等，加仓重点集中在信息科技板块。其中，贝壳作为具备数字化能力的房地产科技平台首次进入易方达蓝 筹精选的重仓名单，引发市场关注。在隐形重仓股中，港交所和新恒汇的股价表现亮眼，2025年上半年分 别收涨44.08%、40.55%。 随着2025年基金半年报的披露，公募基金的隐形重仓股逐渐浮出水面，几位百亿级明星基金经理的最 新动向备受市场关注。 证券时报·券商中国记者注意到，张坤在减持美团的同时加仓贝壳，延续对内需逻辑的关注；葛兰继续加码 创新药械产业链，重点增持艾 ...

随着2025年基金半年报的披露，公募基金的隐形重仓股逐渐浮出水面，几位百亿级明星基金经理的最新动向备受市场 关注。 券商中国记者注意到，张坤在减持美团的同时加仓贝壳，延续对内需逻辑的关注；葛兰继续加码创新药械产业链，重点 增持艾力斯，凸显其对医药成长的坚定押注；傅鹏博则大幅增持阿里巴巴、比亚迪等行业龙头，并表示下半年将对业绩 转好的行业和公司做好"查缺补漏"。 值得一提的是，这几只百亿规模基金年内均实现了正收益。展望2025年下半年，基金经理们将继续聚焦内需修复和高景 气成长等行业主题的投资机会。 张坤：内需循环正反馈有望再形成 数据显示，由张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选目前仍是管理规模最大的公募基金，最新规模达到349.43亿元，截至8月29日， 该基金的年内收益率为12.85%。 半年报显示，截至2025年年中，易方达蓝筹精选的隐形重仓股包括分众传媒、美团、港交所等。其中，分众传媒和美团 的持仓变化较为明显：分众传媒的持仓相对上期增长13.76%，美团则相对上期减少46.43%。这一调仓动作或与外卖行业 竞争加剧有关，美团盈利预期承压，也体现出张坤对互联网平台估值逻辑的重新审视。 半年报显示，截至2025年中， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the long-term pessimism regarding domestic consumption in China is unfounded, supported by data showing increasing disposable income and savings among residents [8][11][15]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The per capita disposable income in China is projected to grow from 32,189 RMB in 2020 to 41,314 RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% [9]. - The total savings balance of residents is expected to rise from 93 trillion RMB at the end of 2020 to 152 trillion RMB by the end of 2024, with a CAGR of 13%, significantly outpacing the growth of disposable income [9]. - The difference between residents' savings and loans is anticipated to increase from approximately 30 trillion RMB at the end of 2020 to about 70 trillion RMB by the end of 2024, indicating an increase in excess savings of around 40 trillion RMB [10]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The increase in precautionary savings is identified as a key factor affecting consumer spending, as consumer confidence has declined from around 120 in 2020 to approximately 87 in 2022, continuing to show a downward trend [13]. - The persistent decline in real estate prices and ongoing deflationary pressures have further dampened consumer spending willingness [13]. - Despite current pessimistic expectations, the article argues that consumer confidence will eventually recover as economic conditions improve and government policies support income growth [17]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the current market presents a rare opportunity for long-term investors to acquire high-quality stocks at undervalued prices, as the prevailing pessimism about consumption is not logically sustainable [20][19]. - Zhang Kun's latest report reveals significant changes in his investment portfolio, including a notable reduction in holdings of Meituan, indicating a shift in focus towards other sectors [25][21]. - The report highlights increased investments in logistics, particularly in SF Express, suggesting optimism about opportunities in the industrial and logistics sectors [30][28]. Group 4: Portfolio Adjustments - The portfolio adjustments include a significant reduction in holdings of Futu and an increase in positions in Interactive Brokers, indicating a strategic shift in response to regulatory changes affecting the cross-border brokerage business [36][38]. - New entries in the portfolio include companies like NetEase, Tencent Music, and Beike, reflecting a diversification strategy and a return to previously held positions [42][44].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs in the U.S. exceeds market expectations, with specific tariffs of 10% on all countries and higher rates on major trading partners: 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 34% for China, and 46% for Vietnam[11] - High tariffs are likely to push U.S. inflation higher and may lead to stagflation or recession, impacting Federal Reserve policies[16] - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index weakened, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.2% to around 4.0%[11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Global capital markets are experiencing increased risk aversion, with major stock indices declining; the Ho Chi Minh Index fell by 6.7%, and U.S. stocks dropped approximately 10% over two trading days[11] - A-shares show resilience compared to other markets, indicating potential investment opportunities[11] - Short-term focus should be on tariff immunity and high-performing sectors, including banking, utilities, food and beverage, and social services[1] Group 3: Policy Responses and Economic Outlook - China's external demand is under pressure, necessitating proactive policy measures; the manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, indicating a slight recovery but still in a bottoming phase[21] - The 2025 fiscal policy is expected to be more aggressive, with a budget deficit target of 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, the highest in recent years[35] - Potential risks include the effectiveness of domestic demand support policies and the possibility of further U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods[51]