文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2025年7月， 月薪宝投顾组合（点击蓝字查看） 连续上涨，创下历史新高。 有朋友问，月薪宝有哪些特点？收益来源是啥？ 近期上涨后，需要对月薪宝调仓吗？ 月薪宝组合收益创新高 2025年7月， 月薪宝投顾组合 迎来连续多个交易日的上涨，创下历史新高。 从历史走势上， 我们也可以看到，月薪宝2022、2023年相对比较低迷。 2023年底以来，组合的整体收益就比之前高了不少。 尽管过去几年市场整体处于熊市，但月薪宝组合的表现，还是比较稳定的。 • 相对于组合的业绩基准，有明显的超额收益； • 成立以来，在11个季度中，有9个季度跑赢业绩比较基准，季度胜率81.82%。 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0708 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） | 季度表现 | | | | 季度胜率:81.82% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022年 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | | | | | 跑赢 | | 2023年 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Several major commercial banks, including ICBC, CCB, and CMB, have recently suspended the issuance of 5-year large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), indicating a shift in the banking sector's strategy to manage funding costs and stabilize net interest margins [1][3]. Group 1: Banking Sector Changes - The suspension of 5-year large-denomination CDs is a response to the current low net interest margin in the banking industry, as banks seek to reduce funding costs by limiting high-cost deposit products [1]. - The overall trend shows a significant decline in deposit rates, with major banks leading the way in reducing rates, resulting in a new environment where medium- to long-term deposit rates have entered the "1%" era [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for Investors - With the reduction of long-term savings options, investors are encouraged to diversify their wealth management strategies, focusing on short-term, medium-term, and long-term financial goals based on their financial situation and risk tolerance [4]. - Experts recommend adopting a "fixed income plus" strategy, which includes allocating to medium- and short-term bond funds, while also considering global asset allocation to capture growth opportunities [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a dynamic rebalancing mechanism to adjust asset allocations based on economic conditions and market valuations, ensuring an effective balance between risk and return [4].

Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Multiple factors have driven oil prices higher, including OPEC's steady production increase, geopolitical risks from Ukraine, and supply disruptions due to wildfires in Canada [1][5] - As of the latest close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73, a 2.85% increase, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85, a 2.95% increase [1] - The market is currently in a tight balance, indicating its ability to absorb additional supply despite concerns over geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran [1][6] Group 2: OPEC and Supply Predictions - OPEC is expected to maintain its production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in July, alleviating market fears of a faster exit from production cuts [4][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC will exit its voluntary production cuts by August, while Morgan Stanley believes that the increase in production will continue into the following months, potentially leading to a price drop [2][3] - Both firms maintain their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs estimating average prices of $56 and $60 per barrel for WTI and Brent respectively this year, while Morgan Stanley anticipates Brent averaging $57.50 per barrel in the last two quarters of the year [2][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The escalation of the Ukraine conflict has heightened geopolitical risk premiums, which counteract the bearish effects of OPEC's production increases [5] - The EU is preparing its 18th round of sanctions against Russia, focusing on energy revenues, which may further tighten global supply and increase oil prices [2][5] - Historical data suggests that U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran have previously disrupted supply chains and elevated oil prices [5] Group 4: Market Self-Correction Mechanism - The current low oil price environment, around $60 per barrel, is triggering a self-correcting mechanism in the market, with shale oil producers warning of potential production declines [6] - Resilient demand supported by global economic indicators and seasonal consumption peaks is providing a foundation for oil prices, enhancing confidence in the market's tight balance [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own capital attributes and managing expectations to establish a scientific investment rhythm [1][3] - Capital attributes are fundamental to investment decisions, with different types of funds (emergency, retirement, idle) requiring distinct strategies based on their usage timeline and risk tolerance [1] - The management of return expectations is crucial, as short-term high returns often come with high risks, and investors should utilize historical data to assess potential returns over a five-year period [1] Group 2 - An anti-fragile investment framework is recommended, utilizing a core-satellite model where 60%-70% of funds are allocated to stable assets like index funds and government bonds, while 30%-40% can be invested in thematic ETFs or quality stocks for excess returns [3] - A regular rebalancing mechanism is advised, suggesting adjustments to asset allocation every six months to enforce a buy low, sell high strategy [3] - Decision-making isolation is essential, with predefined responses to different market conditions based on quantitative indicators to prevent emotional trading [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal strength of the US dollar in December, driven by multiple factors including corporate cash repatriation, institutional portfolio rebalancing, and central bank liquidity management [1][3]. Group 1: Corporate Cash Repatriation - Corporate cash repatriation is identified as a primary driver of dollar strength, exemplified by Apple's repatriation of $240 billion in cash before December 15, which significantly impacted the forex market [3]. - This annual capital flow phenomenon is framed within the context of the US tax code, specifically Section 965, which has created a predictable pattern in currency markets [3]. Group 2: Institutional Portfolio Rebalancing - Institutional investors' portfolio adjustments contribute to market volatility, as seen when Norway's sovereign fund reduced its emerging market equity holdings by 5% in favor of US Treasuries, leading to a 2.3% depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar [3]. - The scale of cross-border capital flows in December is typically 40% higher than the monthly average, indicating a significant seasonal impact on the forex market [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Liquidity Management - Central bank liquidity management plays a crucial role, with the Federal Reserve utilizing reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to regulate dollar supply, exemplified by a $300 billion liquidity withdrawal in December 2022 [3]. - This strategy has led to a notable increase in overnight interest rates, demonstrating the Fed's influence on market expectations through deliberate liquidity adjustments [3]. Group 4: Seasonal Patterns and Market Volatility - Seasonal patterns are not isolated; research indicates that when the dollar's seasonal strength coincides with Federal Reserve meetings, exchange rate volatility can increase to three times the normal level [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor corporate overseas cash estimates and sovereign fund holdings at the end of November to navigate the capital flow dynamics effectively [5].