Vi e w p o i n t | 05 Jan 2026 17:00:48 ET │ 21 pages China Economics 2026 Outlook: Mind the Gap CITI'S TAKE 2025 witnessed a markedly positive shift in investor narrative on China. Most of the good news happened in the new economy and on the supply side, while the old economy and domestic demand continued to struggle. This K-shaped growth pattern, driving the apparent macro-micro disconnect, is becoming entrenched and self-reinforcing, in our view. We think it would take a big push to break the loop, but w ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market is experiencing a certain level of volatility due to President Trump's sudden trade war, but this is seen as a short-term impact, with the long-term trend of a slow bull market remaining unchanged [1] - The current technology bull market has lasted for a year, with significant gains in various technology sectors representing new productive forces [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to focus on include humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, computing algorithms, semiconductor chips, low-altitude economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and New Energy 2.0, all of which have shown outstanding performance [1] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to become a major industry in China, following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles, with many companies transitioning from automotive parts manufacturing [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - Recent advancements in the semiconductor field indicate significant breakthroughs in "bottleneck" projects, positioning China as a potential global hub for chip production and research [3] - Bill Gates previously criticized the U.S. for attempting to stifle China's high-tech development through high-end chips, predicting that this would only strengthen China's R&D efforts [3] Group 4: Economic Trends - The current bull market is fundamentally driven by economic transformation and technological development, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to unveil key industries for development, potentially creating new opportunities for technology stocks [4] - Despite short-term adjustments due to the trade war, technology stocks quickly attracted significant capital, leading to a rebound [4] Group 5: Gold Market - The outlook for gold remains positive, driven by the expansion of U.S. dollar issuance and the anticipated rise in gold prices, which have already seen a year-to-date increase of over 52% [5] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S. government and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support gold prices [5][6] Group 6: Currency Trends - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, with the central bank's recent adjustments reflecting a recovery in the yuan's value [7] - The rise in the yuan is attributed to a combination of factors, including improved macroeconomic policies and significant foreign capital inflows into the A-share market [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The military industry in China is mature and has significant international market potential, with foreign trade becoming a focal point [1][2] - The end of the 14th Five-Year Plan has catalyzed policies, leading to a recovery in upstream military electronics orders, although challenges remain [1][2] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will commence in 2026, with a goal of military modernization by 2027, emphasizing the need for new combat capabilities [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Increased global military equipment demand due to rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts, validating the performance of domestic equipment in international markets [1][2] - The integration of AI in military applications is driving modernization, with China aiming for AI development goals by 2030 [1][2][5] - The 2025 military parade showcased advanced military technologies, including hypersonic weapons and unmanned systems, indicating a shift towards joint operations and modern combat systems [1][6] AI Applications in Military - AI applications in the military encompass various areas, including command operations, equipment maintenance, autonomous drones, and logistics management [5][7] - The U.S. leads in military AI, with significant investments in AI companies and rapid decision-making enhancements within NATO [5][9] - China's military AI development involves numerous companies, including aerospace and navigation firms, contributing to a comprehensive upgrade of military capabilities [9] Emerging Technologies and Equipment - The 2025 military parade highlighted new technologies such as AI-enabled drones and ground robots, enhancing overall military effectiveness [8][9] - Specific advancements include lightweight automatic rifles and smart wearable devices for soldiers, improving operational efficiency [8][9] Long-term and Short-term Outlook - Long-term prospects for military informationization and intelligence construction in foreign trade are promising, potentially expanding the domestic military market [10] - Short-term recovery in foreign trade requires time, with the military sector showing thematic investment trends [11] New Production Forces and Trends - Key development areas include commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and deep-sea technology, which are prioritized in national development plans [12][14] - The deep-sea technology sector is crucial for national security and economic interests, with ongoing advancements in underwater research and resource development [13][14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on military AI industrialization, with attention to emerging themes in commercial aerospace and unmanned intelligence [16][17] - Key companies to watch include those involved in national defense and aerospace, as well as firms specializing in AI and information technology [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on the manufacturing sector, which is a critical pillar of the Chinese economy, accounting for approximately 25% of the national GDP [8]. Core Insights - The Chinese government is considering a new version of the "Made in China 2025" initiative to promote high-tech product manufacturing, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, amidst ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [5][19] - The upcoming five-year plan aims to maintain the manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP at a stable level, reflecting challenges in achieving the U.S. goal of economic rebalancing with China [5][7] - There is a significant emphasis on enhancing domestic consumption, which currently accounts for about 40% of China's GDP, compared to 50% to 70% in developed economies, indicating a persistent imbalance [16][22] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing industry is viewed as essential for national security and job creation, with the government aiming to strengthen its position and reduce reliance on foreign technology [14][21] - The "Made in China 2025" plan has seen success in several key technologies, with China leading in five out of thirteen tracked technologies [17] Economic Planning - The next five-year plan is expected to be unveiled in March 2026, with discussions ongoing about whether to include specific consumption targets in GDP [7][10] - The government is focusing on breaking through bottlenecks in economic growth, particularly in semiconductor and new energy materials technologies [24] Trade Relations - The report highlights the ongoing trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing tariffs and seeking to decouple strategically from China, while China maintains control over critical resources like rare earths [7][19]

Summary of Conference Call on Deep Sea Technology and Related Companies Industry Overview - The deep sea technology sector is highlighted in the 2025 government work report, indicating strong national commitment to its development [2][2] - Deep sea technology is recognized as a crucial component of new productivity, expected to enhance the performance of related companies, particularly in materials, equipment, and engineering services [2][2] Key Companies and Their Prospects 1. **Macco Xincai** - Leading domestic industrial coatings company, benefiting from rising container shipping prices, with container coatings revenue expected to grow over 200% year-on-year [2][4] - Holds over 40% market share in wind turbine blade coatings and is expanding into marine coatings, indicating potential for significant performance breakthroughs [2][4] 2. **Dalian Heavy Industry** - A major machinery manufacturing enterprise with steady revenue and profit growth, expected to see a 40% year-on-year profit increase in 2025 [2][5] - New high-end wind power casting capacity supports future growth, with a strong order backlog from 2021 to 2024 [2][5][16] 3. **CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation)** - A leader in China's offshore and deep-sea sectors, with significant technological capabilities and a strong production record [2][8] - "Deep Sea No. 1" project has produced over 110 billion cubic meters of natural gas, with further production expected from rich reserves in the South China Sea [2][9] 4. **CNOOC Engineering** - Benefiting from high capital expenditure from CNOOC, with expected performance growth of 10%-20% in 2025 [2][10] - Plans to establish a base in the Middle East to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [2][15] 5. **CNOOC Services** - Engaged in high-precision technical services, filling gaps in China's 3D seismic exploration data [2][12] - Expected to maintain rapid growth over the next 1-2 years, with a low valuation of around 8 times PE, indicating investment potential [2][12] Financial Insights - CNOOC's capital expenditure is projected to remain high, between 100 billion to 130 billion, with production growth rates of 3%-5% anticipated [2][13] - CNOOC's A-share price is approximately 30% higher than its Hong Kong counterpart, with potential for this discount to narrow as liquidity improves [2][14] Market Trends and Recommendations - The deep sea economy is expected to drive growth in oil and gas engineering and services sectors [2][7] - Recommended companies to watch include Macco Xincai, Dalian Heavy Industry, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Services, all of which are positioned to benefit from advancements in energy and deep sea technology [2][19] Conclusion - The deep sea technology sector is poised for significant growth, supported by government policy and increasing demand, with several key companies likely to benefit from this trend.