Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report suggests short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and jujube. For soybean meal, although the U.S. soybean export data is poor and domestic soybean inventory has decreased while soybean meal inventory has increased, the expected decline in imports in the first quarter and the rising cost of U.S. soybean imports support the short - term rebound. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal with reduced inventory pressure and shows some resistance to decline. Jujube has a short - term rebound opportunity despite high inventory and a generally bearish supply - demand situation [1][3][6][14]. - **Stop - falling and Rebound**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to stop falling and rebound. Palm oil has a de - stocking expectation in December due to increased export data and reduced production, but the Indonesian policy cools the bullish sentiment. Soybean oil's supply environment has slightly improved, and the import in the first quarter is lower than expected. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply tightness and benefits from domestic edible oil inspections [1][7][8]. - **Oscillate Strongly**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. Internationally, the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to mixed factors. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is resilient, but attention should be paid to the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply [1][9][12]. - **Short - term Rebound for Live Pigs**: Live pigs are expected to have a short - term rebound. Recently, affected by snow and the entry of second - fattening pigs, the supply pressure is postponed to January - February, and the short - term supply - demand pressure eases, which is conducive to the short - term rebound [1][15][16]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654.44 million tons, a decrease of 67.92 million tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 116.76 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and 1.01 days from the same period last year [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term long positions after adjustment. Before the U.S. soybean stabilizes, the performance of soybean meal will be restricted. Focus on whether the U.S. soybean export data can improve and the South American weather conditions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory, rapeseed meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts were all 0 million tons, unchanged from last week. The supply of rapeseed meal is scarce, and the spot price has risen, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal. With the relief of inventory pressure, it shows some resistance to decline. Pay attention to the Australian rapeseed pressing and import policies and the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.41 million tons, an increase of 4.87%. Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil export and production in the first 25 days of December vary, but generally, there is a de - stocking expectation in December [7][8]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Bullish investors can participate at low prices. Before the de - stocking conclusion in December is confirmed, pay attention to controlling positions. Focus on the final data [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the U.S. new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's new cotton daily listing volume is 4.3 million tons, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 16.9%. Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 6 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is locked at 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast, and the national commercial inventory has risen to 5.165 billion tons [9][10][11]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of entering the market with long positions on dips. Be vigilant about the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply on the disk, and focus on the change in the commercial inventory accumulation speed [1][12]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply has increased. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 15,898 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210 tons, still higher than the same period last year. The demand in the market varies [13][14]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain a generally bearish attitude, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slaughter progress of steel - union sample enterprises in the first 20 days is 70%, and the supply pressure at the end of the month may ease. The entry of second - fattening pigs in Shandong has increased, and the supply pressure is postponed to January - February. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets in November decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is expected to reach the adjustment target by the end of the year [15][16]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 01 contract is restricted by the delivery logic, and the deep - decline space of the valuation is limited after the spot rebound. For the 03 contract, pay attention to the safety margin after the rebound and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. For the 09 and 11 contracts, wait and see in the short - term data vacuum period [1][16].

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：供需双强 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰继续，现货震荡为主 | 11 | | 生猪：增量将至，产业逻辑回归 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.73% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.16% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,666 8,254 | -0.39% | 8,680 8,240 | -0.17% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,618 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, with the US and Brazil having relatively favorable supply - side situations [4]. - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand looseness, while the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - The palm oil market is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, while the rapeseed oil market has a pattern of oversupply [18]. - The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - The pig market has limited supply in the short term but faces future inventory pressure, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and volatile, but may decline in the long - term due to expected increase in planting area [37]. - The egg market's futures price downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [47]. - The apple market's futures price is likely to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July due to low inventory and some impacts on fruit setting [51]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, with the US cotton planting progress slightly behind and the Brazilian cotton harvest progress slow [58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Conditions**: The CBOT soybean index rose 0.22% to 1033.25 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.1% to 284.4 dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: In May, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to the previous year. The US soybean meal export sales in the 25/26 season reached 204,000 tons. As of June 27, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market supply and demand is loose, with good weather in the US, high production in Brazil, and potentially reduced export pressure in Argentina [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For one - sided trading, consider buying at low points. For arbitrage, expect the MRM09 spread to widen [6] Sugar - **External Market Conditions**: The ICE US sugar主力 contract fell 3.09% to 15.70 cents per pound [7]. - **Important Information**: In the first half of June, Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and that in some regions was stable. The estimated delivery volume of the July raw sugar futures contract is at a low level since 2014 [8][9][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The raw sugar market is weak due to loose global supply and demand, and the domestic sugar market may follow the raw sugar price fluctuations [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, hold short positions as the raw sugar weakens and drags down Zhengzhou sugar. For arbitrage, take profit on the 9 - 1 spread. For options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [16] Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Conditions**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by 0.81% to 53.65 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by 0.50% to 3990 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly compared to the previous year. StoneX raised the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production. As of June 29, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports decreased compared to the previous year, while soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports increased [15][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Palm oil is in a stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory build - up, and rapeseed oil has an oversupply pattern [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, consider buying on dips as the short - term oil market may fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [19][20][21] Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: The CBOT corn futures fell, with the December主力 contract down 0.5% to 422.0 cents per bushel [24]. - **Important Information**: The CBOT corn futures slightly declined due to good crop growth and a clear production outlook. The US corn has a high excellent - rate and good future weather conditions. The domestic corn port price is strong, and the North China spot price has declined [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn market has a good production outlook, leading to a weakening trend in the futures market, while the domestic corn market has a relatively strong spot price [26]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, the US September corn futures are in a bottom - oscillating state, and adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, consider expanding the spread between corn and starch. For options, those with spot goods can consider a high - level put - writing strategy [27][29] Hogs - **Relevant Information**: Hog prices are rising in various regions, while piglet and sow prices remain stable. The national average wholesale price of pork decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term supply of the hog market is limited, but future inventory pressure exists, and price increase space is restricted [31]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, adopt a bearish approach. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread operation on LH91. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32][34] Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable, oil mill arrivals are at a certain level, peanut oil prices are strong, and peanut meal sales are slow. The inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in sample enterprises has decreased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market has low spot trading volume, stable prices, and expected increase in planting area, with short - term strength and long - term decline potential [37]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For one - sided trading, consider short - selling on rallies for the October contract and currently adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [40][41][42] Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices are generally stable across the country, the number of laying hens in stock has increased, the number of culled hens has decreased, egg sales have increased, and the profit per egg is still in a loss or break - even state [44][45][46]. - **Trading Logic**: The downward space of egg futures prices is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the amount of culled hens [47]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, consider building long positions in the August and September contracts when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [48] Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory has decreased, import and export volumes have changed, spot prices are stable, and storage profit has increased [49][50]. - **Trading Logic**: Low inventory may support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the futures price is expected to be slightly strong in a volatile manner in July [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, build long positions on dips for the AP10 contract. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [52][53][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: The ICE US cotton主力 contract fell 0.12% to 67.96 cents per pound [55]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's cotton harvest progress is slow, the US cotton planting progress is slightly behind, and the planting area is expected to decrease [56][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamental supply - demand, and the futures price may be slightly strong in a volatile manner [58][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: For one - sided trading, expect the US cotton to be mainly oscillating and the Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly strong in the short - term. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [60][64]