10月23日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，主力合约报收于2292.00元/ 吨，涨幅1.19%。 供应方面，一德期货指出，近期内地部分装置检修，预计开工仍有回落，伊朗marjan165万吨停车，卡 维230万吨计划后期停车，目前涉美船只征收特别港务费，个别仓库拒接伊朗及委内瑞拉货源，后期到 港预计下降。 需求方面，华闻期货分析称，本周MTO需求表现稳健，短期烯烃行业暂无计划内调整变动；传统下游 需求有升有降。内地甲醇市场窄幅整理，企业竞拍成交一般。 库存方面，截至2025年10月22日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在151.22万吨，较上一期数据增加2.08万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加3万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少0.92万吨。 整体来看，五矿期货表示，旺季需求落空，国内库存高企，弱现实的格局未变，短期受进口货物延迟卸 货影响港口压力有所缓解，未来价格潜在的向上驱动在于冬季限气带来的预期改善。建议观望为主。 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, it currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. - For PTA, supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, a 22.68% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, a 12.56% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels, an 8.20% increase [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, a 0.17% decrease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: No specific strategy viewpoint is provided other than for the overall energy market situation. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 13 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan, at 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6, at - 20 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed due to port fees, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan decreased by 10 yuan. Most areas remained stable, with only a few areas seeing price drops. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan, at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 79. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5, at - 75 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, affecting rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 18.70 percentage points from the previous week and 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.37%, up 23.50 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.73 percentage points from the same period last year. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025, a 0.7% decrease [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 3 yuan, at 4699 yuan. The spot price of SG - 5 in Changzhou was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 99 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan). The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.7%, down 5.9% from the previous period; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.7%, down 8.2%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.2%, down 8.6%. Factory inventory was 36 million tons (- 2.3 million tons), and social inventory was 103.4 million tons (- 0.3 million tons) [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5430 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5476 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract increased by 73 yuan/ton to 6438 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 38.81%, up 0.27% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6883 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6975 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%, down 0.11%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45%, up 0.64%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract increased by 18 yuan/ton to 6583 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6615 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.04%. The LL - PP spread was 300 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 64 yuan to 6332 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 1 dollar to 784 dollars. The basis was 78 yuan (- 59 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 10 yuan (+ 6 yuan). The Chinese PX load was 84.9%, down 2.5%; the Asian load was 78%, down 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 246 dollars (+ 5 dollars), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 dollars (- 11 dollars) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The new PTA device commissioning expectation suppresses the PTA processing fee, making it difficult to deplete PX inventory. It currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 30 yuan to 4414 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4320 yuan. The basis was - 88 yuan (- 3 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 10 was 216 million tons, up 5.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 115 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 12 yuan to 260 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, leading to a slight inventory increase. The processing fee is difficult to expand due to weak forward expectations. The polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure in the demand side are low, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 1 yuan to 4004 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan to 4075 yuan. The basis was 74 yuan (+ 2 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (+ 4 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, up 2.5%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 5.3 million tons, and the East China departure on October 20 was 0.56 million tons. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 436 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 706 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 253 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price decreased to 780 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 660 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].