印尼央行行长：在与美国的关税谈判后，预计出口表现将继续保持积极态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, showing resilience despite a high base effect and a 3.3 percentage point decline from April, with trade surplus continuing to expand [1][2][12] Export Performance - The export performance in May is characterized by a slight decline but remains robust, primarily driven by re-exports and a temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs [2][12] - The high base from the previous year and significant reciprocal tariffs in early May suppressed exports, while direct exports to the U.S. continue to decline [2][12] - In the latter half of May, the easing of reciprocal tariffs and high export levels to ASEAN and other re-export countries provided support for exports [2][12] Quantity and Price Analysis - The analysis of export growth by quantity and price indicates a decline in quantity-driven growth, while price drag has narrowed [4] - The significant drop in quantity-driven growth is attributed to tariffs and high base effects, with raw materials showing a notable decline in quantity contribution [4] Regional and Category Insights - Exports to the EU (12.1%) and Africa (33.5%) showed a counter-trend increase, while exports to other regions, including Latin America (2.3%) and the U.S. (-34.4%), saw significant declines [6] - The increase in exports to the EU is likely benefiting from European recovery and improved China-EU trade relations, while exports to ASEAN remain high [6] Product-Specific Trends - Integrated circuits continue to see strong re-export activity, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, while other electronic products experienced varying degrees of decline [8] - In the automotive sector, exports increased by 13.7%, and shipbuilding exports surged by 44% [8] - Labor-intensive products like clothing (3%) and toys (-0.6%) showed mixed results, with textiles (-1.9%) and footwear (-5.5%) experiencing more significant declines [8] Import Dynamics - In May, China's import growth rate fell to -3.4%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from April, with imports from major trading partners, except the EU (0%), also decreasing [10] - The decline in imports is attributed to reduced demand for assembly materials and weakening domestic demand [10] - Notably, imports of agricultural products saw a significant rebound, with soybeans increasing by 22.6% [11] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion in May, reflecting a recovery from April [12] - Future export outlook suggests that the temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs will expire in a month, and ongoing monitoring of high-frequency indicators is necessary to observe potential turning points in re-exports and direct exports [15]