Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economy achieved a stable performance in 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.0%, meeting the expected target [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a recovery trend, with December's CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since March 2023, and the core CPI increasing by 1.2% [2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is accelerating, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.3 and 3.5 percentage points [2] - Export growth showed signs of marginal recovery, with December exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, up 0.7 percentage points from November [2] - The production sector maintained a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size growing by 5.2% year-on-year in December [2] - There was a notable upgrade in consumer spending, with over 10% year-on-year growth in categories such as gold and jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and communication equipment in December [2] - Service consumption saw significant growth, with per capita consumption expenditure reaching 29,476 yuan in 2025, a nominal increase of 4.4% from the previous year [2] Group 2 - Domestic demand recovery is still in need of consolidation, with investment factors indicating that "anti-involution" policies may hinder some manufacturing investments, and weak housing prices may restrict real estate investments [3] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to have limited recovery in 2026, supported by fiscal policies backing infrastructure investment [3] - Consumption in 2026 is anticipated to continue a moderate recovery, influenced by the "wealth effect" from the stock market, although the "income effect" may still impose some constraints [3] - External demand may face challenges, with potential "overdraft effects" from 2025's "export grabbing" behavior, but supportive factors such as adjustments in export tax policies and improved competitiveness of Chinese exporters may lead to better-than-expected performance in early 2026 [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In 2026, the RMB exchange rate may show a stable and appreciating trend, with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 and limited depreciation space. Attention should be paid to its appreciation opportunities [2]. - The direction and rhythm of the RMB exchange rate in 2026 may depend on three factors: the central bank's regulation intensity of the central parity rate, the directional performance of the external US dollar index and the performance of the domestic equity market, and whether exports can continue to perform well [2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Recent Tracking - Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has performed stronger than the on - shore one, reflecting the weakening of the overseas US dollar and the increasing attractiveness of domestic asset returns, which has led to continuous inflows of foreign capital [2]. - Since the second half of the year, the market's willingness to settle foreign exchange has increased, and the year - end seasonal peak of foreign exchange settlement has provided a favorable environment for the RMB exchange rate [2][8]. - Recently, the central bank has continuously guided the central parity rate in the depreciation direction, with an adjustment range of about 180 basis points in the past week [2]. Exchange Rate Data - From November 2025, the offshore exchange rate has gradually become stronger than the on - shore exchange rate [6]. - The table shows the exchange rate data from December 18 - 24, 2025, including the Chinese representative rate, the estimated mean, and the spread [5]. Central Bank Policy - The central bank has increased the intensity of adjusting the central parity rate in the depreciation direction [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and a basket of currencies highlights a unique trend in the global foreign exchange market, with the RMB reaching new highs not seen in over a year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - The RMB has shown resilience against the US dollar, breaking through significant levels, with onshore and offshore RMB both surpassing 7.08, reaching 7.0786 and 7.07559 respectively [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, marking an annual increase of over 1000 basis points [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's strong performance to both domestic and external factors, including robust economic indicators and increased capital inflows, as well as a weaker US dollar due to declining economic data [3][4]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable trade balance and increased demand for currency conversion, driven by strong export performance and a recovering domestic capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will maintain a strong position, with potential fluctuations influenced by the US dollar's performance and domestic economic policies [5][6]. - Seasonal factors, such as the traditional peak for currency conversion in the fourth quarter, are expected to provide additional support for the RMB's value [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia anticipates that export performance will continue to remain positive following tariff negotiations with the United States [1] Group 1 - The positive outlook for exports is linked to the outcomes of recent tariff discussions with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, showing resilience despite a high base effect and a 3.3 percentage point decline from April, with trade surplus continuing to expand [1][2][12] Export Performance - The export performance in May is characterized by a slight decline but remains robust, primarily driven by re-exports and a temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs [2][12] - The high base from the previous year and significant reciprocal tariffs in early May suppressed exports, while direct exports to the U.S. continue to decline [2][12] - In the latter half of May, the easing of reciprocal tariffs and high export levels to ASEAN and other re-export countries provided support for exports [2][12] Quantity and Price Analysis - The analysis of export growth by quantity and price indicates a decline in quantity-driven growth, while price drag has narrowed [4] - The significant drop in quantity-driven growth is attributed to tariffs and high base effects, with raw materials showing a notable decline in quantity contribution [4] Regional and Category Insights - Exports to the EU (12.1%) and Africa (33.5%) showed a counter-trend increase, while exports to other regions, including Latin America (2.3%) and the U.S. (-34.4%), saw significant declines [6] - The increase in exports to the EU is likely benefiting from European recovery and improved China-EU trade relations, while exports to ASEAN remain high [6] Product-Specific Trends - Integrated circuits continue to see strong re-export activity, with a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, while other electronic products experienced varying degrees of decline [8] - In the automotive sector, exports increased by 13.7%, and shipbuilding exports surged by 44% [8] - Labor-intensive products like clothing (3%) and toys (-0.6%) showed mixed results, with textiles (-1.9%) and footwear (-5.5%) experiencing more significant declines [8] Import Dynamics - In May, China's import growth rate fell to -3.4%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from April, with imports from major trading partners, except the EU (0%), also decreasing [10] - The decline in imports is attributed to reduced demand for assembly materials and weakening domestic demand [10] - Notably, imports of agricultural products saw a significant rebound, with soybeans increasing by 22.6% [11] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $103.22 billion in May, reflecting a recovery from April [12] - Future export outlook suggests that the temporary easing of reciprocal tariffs will expire in a month, and ongoing monitoring of high-frequency indicators is necessary to observe potential turning points in re-exports and direct exports [15]