Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]

周五期债各品种震荡收跌。现券收益率短端略降，长端上升。资金面宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开市场 逆回购1680亿，净投放32亿。 日内消息： 1."十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标：高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全 面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进 展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。 2.发改委郑栅洁：未来10年将再造一个中国高技术产业，打造新兴支柱产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航 天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智 能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。 行情研判： 受十五五发展目标提振，A股今日高开高走，科技板块带领市场再度冲关，上证指数创出新高，受此影响债市 震荡收跌。回顾本周市场走势，虽然股债跷跷板效应仍在，但影响已较三季度大为减轻。目前债市自身可交 易的热点较少，主要受资本市场情绪影响，周末关注是否有中美贸易谈判的相关消息。操作上以偏多思路对 待，逢低做多，不追高。 国债期货日度数据 国债期货日报 2025/10/24 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001 ...

国债期货日报 2025/10/23 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注资本市场情绪 盘面点评： 周四期债开盘后走弱，临近午盘翻红，午后走弱，品种全线收跌。现券收益率短端略降，长端略升。资金面 宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开市场逆回购2125亿，另有1200亿国库金定存招标，净投放965亿。 日内消息： 2.商务部：经中美双方决定，国务院副总理何立峰将于10月24日至27日率团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋 商。 行情研判： 今日市场继续随消息面摆动。A股早盘走弱，午后传来中美将在马来西亚进行经贸磋商的消息，股市回升，尾 盘持续走强，债市相应回落。当前资本市场仍在等待四中全会对于"十五五"规划的政策表述以及中美贸易 谈判的结果。今明两日关注四中全会的消息，若风险情绪回升，债市或将有进一步的低点。操作仍以偏多思 路对待，不追高。 | | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-22 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-22 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注资本市场情绪 盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025/10/22 周三期债震荡，除TS微跌以外，其余品种收涨。现券收益率震荡。资金面宽松，DR001在1.32%左右。公开 市场逆回购1382亿，净投放947亿。 日内消息： 1.商务部召开外资企业圆桌会：依法审批合规贸易，维护全球产业链供应链稳定。 2.工信部部长李乐成：构建新型工业化叙事逻辑和话语体系。 行情研判： 今日A股前期热门板块有再度启动之势，但量能不足，突破无果。债市日内略受股市影响，目前长债价格在区 间震荡上沿附近，等待消息面指引。当前资本市场情绪相对谨慎，仍在等待四中全会对于"十五五"规划的 政策表述以及中美贸易谈判的结果，明日注意关注四中全会的消息。如果消息面对A股情绪提振较大，则期债 有低位做多的机会。操作上，以偏多思路对待，不追高。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-21 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-21 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

国债期货日报 2025/10/21 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注资本市场情绪 盘面点评： 周二期债开盘后震荡，午盘前一度下跌，但午后回升，品种全线收涨。现券收益率震荡，中长端有所下行。 资金面宽松，DR001在1.31%左右。公开市场逆回购1595亿，净投放685亿。 日内消息： 1.特朗普在白宫记者会上表示将稀土出口管制、芬太尼管控和大豆进口恢复列为对中方的 "三大谈判条件"，并 暗示可能通过关税让步换取中方妥协。 行情研判： 因特朗普态度缓和，美股接近前高，A股今日继续反弹，成交量有所放大。债市一度因此受挫，但午后逐渐摆 脱股市影响。只要风险情绪不过度亢奋，即表现为股市放量大涨、突破关键点位，债市则压力不大。目前市 场在等待四中全会对于"十五五"规划的政策表述以及中美贸易谈判的结果，短期或维持震荡。操作上，低 位多单可继续持有，空仓者逢低做多。 | | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-10-21 | 2025-10-20 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...