Core Viewpoint - The recent strength of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and a basket of currencies highlights a unique trend in the global foreign exchange market, with the RMB reaching new highs not seen in over a year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Performance - The RMB has shown resilience against the US dollar, breaking through significant levels, with onshore and offshore RMB both surpassing 7.08, reaching 7.0786 and 7.07559 respectively [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, marking an annual increase of over 1000 basis points [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's strong performance to both domestic and external factors, including robust economic indicators and increased capital inflows, as well as a weaker US dollar due to declining economic data [3][4]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable trade balance and increased demand for currency conversion, driven by strong export performance and a recovering domestic capital market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that the RMB will maintain a strong position, with potential fluctuations influenced by the US dollar's performance and domestic economic policies [5][6]. - Seasonal factors, such as the traditional peak for currency conversion in the fourth quarter, are expected to provide additional support for the RMB's value [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. After today's rise, the prices of long - term varieties are approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range again, and there may not be enough momentum to break through in the short term. It is recommended to take partial profits tomorrow and keep some long positions for observation [1][3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review On Monday, bond futures opened lower and rose in the morning, fluctuated in the afternoon, and closed up across the board. Spot bond yields declined across the board. Due to the end of the month, the capital market was tight, and DR001 rose to around 1.45%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 33.73 billion yuan, and MLF was renewed for 90 billion yuan, with a net injection of 34.83 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China and the US have reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving multiple important economic and trade issues and will proceed with their respective domestic approval procedures [2]. - China and the US have reached a "very substantial framework", laying the foundation for the upcoming China - US leaders' meeting [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment Optimistic news from the weekend's China - US trade negotiations led to a sharp rise in the A - share market today, with the market index approaching 4000 points. Affected by the improved risk sentiment, bond futures opened lower. However, the news of a marginal interest rate cut in the morning's MLF renewal excited bond market bulls, so the bond market was not affected by the strong stock market. Considering the previous decline in the marginal interest rate of the repurchase, the central bank currently tends to use such tools to reduce institutional financing costs, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be postponed [3]. 3.4. Bond Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 27 Price | 2025 - 10 - 24 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 27 Position | 2025 - 10 - 24 Position | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.382 | 102.334 | 0.048 | 76,175 | 76,425 | - 250 | | TF2512 | 105.735 | 105.615 | 0.12 | 156,966 | 151,744 | 5,222 | | T2512 | 108.145 | 108.015 | 0.13 | 263,730 | 261,298 | 2,432 | | TL2512 | 115.33 | 115.03 | 0.3 | 179,404 | 176,081 | 3,323 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0123 | - 0.0118 | 0.0241 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0168 | - 0.0337 | 0.0169 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0235 | 0.0436 | - 0.0201 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2081 | 0.136 | 0.0721 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 29,975 | 26,194 | 3,781 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 58,124 | 46,576 | 11,548 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 75,942 | 67,873 | 8,069 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | - | - | - | 113,706 | 127,270 | - 13,564 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly affected by capital market sentiment. Although the stock - bond seesaw effect still exists, its impact has been greatly reduced compared to the third quarter. Currently, there are few tradable hotspots in the bond market itself. It is recommended to adopt a bullish trading strategy, buying on dips and not chasing highs. Additionally, pay attention to whether there are relevant news about Sino - US trade negotiations over the weekend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions on October 24, 2025 - **Futures Market**: All varieties of Treasury bond futures closed down in a volatile manner. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields increased. The funds were loose, with DR001 at around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 16.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 320 million yuan [1]. - **Intraday News**: - The main goals of economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial improvement in technological self - reliance and self - strength, new breakthroughs in comprehensive deepening of reforms, an obvious improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier [2]. - Zheng Shanjie of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China will recreate a high - tech industry in the next 10 years, develop emerging pillar industries, accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy, and promote new economic growth points such as quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth - generation mobile communications [2]. 3.2 Impact on the Bond Market - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" development goals, the A - share market opened higher and moved higher today. The technology sector led the market to break through again, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high. As a result, the bond market closed down in a volatile manner [3]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Data | Contract | October 24, 2025 | October 23, 2025 | Change Today | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.334 | 102.342 | - 0.008 | | TF2512 | 105.615 | 105.665 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.015 | 108.07 | - 0.055 | | TL2512 | 115.03 | 115.3 | - 0.27 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0118 | - 0.0297 | 0.0179 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0337 | - 0.0405 | 0.0068 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0436 | - 0.0074 | 0.051 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.136 | 0.319 | - 0.183 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76425 | 76588 | - 163 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 151744 | 152409 | - 665 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 261298 | 262198 | - 900 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 176081 | 175682 | 399 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 26194 | 32327 | - 6133 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 46576 | 59535 | - 12959 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67873 | 76898 | - 9025 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 127270 | 136162 | - 8892 | [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. The current capital market is waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations. In the next two days, focus on the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the risk sentiment recovers, the bond market may reach further lows. The operation should still be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened lower, turned positive near noon, and weakened in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields slightly increased. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There was a 212.5 billion yuan open - market reverse repurchase and a 120 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 96.5 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Market News - Trump said that he expects China and the US to reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit, but the leaders of the two countries may not meet. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement in the end, a 155% tariff will be imposed. - The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 to hold economic and trade consultations with the US [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - The market continued to fluctuate with the news. The A - share market weakened in the morning, recovered in the afternoon after the news of China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, and continued to strengthen at the close, while the bond market declined accordingly [3] 3.4 Market Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 23 | 2025 - 10 - 22 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.342 | 102.352 | - 0.01 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.715 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.07 | 108.16 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 115.3 | 115.6 | - 0.3 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76,588 | 76,223 | + 365 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 152,409 | 156,292 | - 3,883 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 262,198 | 269,637 | - 7,439 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 175,682 | 178,780 | - 3,098 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0297 | - 0.0316 | + 0.0019 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0405 | - 0.0118 | - 0.0287 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0074 | 0.1457 | - 0.1531 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3552 | - 0.0362 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 32,327 | 24,145 | + 8,182 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 59,535 | 40,005 | + 19,530 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 76,898 | 66,248 | + 10,650 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 136,162 | 113,354 | + 22,808 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates a cautious sentiment in the current capital market, waiting for policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of Sino-US trade negotiations. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated. Except for a slight decline in TS, other varieties closed higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open market conducted 13.82 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 9.47 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with foreign-funded enterprises, stating that it will legally approve compliant trade and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to build a new narrative logic and discourse system for new industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - Today, the previously popular sectors in the A-share market showed signs of restarting, but the trading volume was insufficient, and the breakthrough was unsuccessful. The bond market was slightly affected by the stock market during the day. Currently, the long-term bond price is near the upper edge of the range, waiting for guidance from the news. Tomorrow, pay attention to the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 22 | 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 22 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change in Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.362 | -0.01 | 76,223 | 77,402 | -1,179 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.695 | 0.02 | 156,292 | 156,544 | -252 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.12 | 0.04 | 269,637 | 265,904 | 3,733 | | TL2512 | 115.6 | 115.49 | 0.11 | 178,780 | 183,244 | -4,464 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0316 | -0.0144 | -0.0172 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24,145 | 25,832 | -1,687 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0118 | -0.0262 | 0.0144 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 40,005 | 45,116 | -5,111 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1457 | 0.0253 | 0.1204 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 66,248 | 76,221 | -9,973 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3552 | 0.2497 | 0.1055 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 113,354 | 124,727 | -11,373 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. As long as the risk sentiment is not overly exuberant, the bond market will face little pressure. The market is currently waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations, and it may remain volatile in the short term. Operators can continue to hold long positions at low levels, and those with empty positions can go long on dips [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated after the opening, declined briefly before the midday break, and then rebounded in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated, with medium and long-term yields declining. The capital market was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open market conducted 15.95 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan [1] News - Trump stated at a White House press conference that he listed rare earth export controls, fentanyl control, and the resumption of soybean imports as the "three negotiation conditions" for China and hinted at the possibility of making tariff concessions in exchange for China's compromise [2] Market Analysis - Due to Trump's softened stance, the US stock market approached its previous high, and the A-share market continued to rebound today with increased trading volume. The bond market was initially affected but gradually shook off the influence of the stock market in the afternoon [3] Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 21 | 2025 - 10 - 20 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.362 | 102.336 | 0.026 | | TF2512 | 105.695 | 105.66 | 0.035 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 108.09 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.49 | 115.41 | 0.08 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0144 | -0.0313 | 0.0169 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0262 | -0.0478 | 0.0216 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0253 | 0.009 | 0.0163 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2497 | 0.243 | 0.0067 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 77,402 | 75,809 | 1,593 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 156,544 | 154,552 | 1,992 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 265,904 | 262,611 | 3,293 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 183,244 | 181,782 | 1,462 | | TS Main Transaction (Lots) | 25,832 | 30,665 | -4,833 | | TF Main Transaction (Lots) | 45,116 | 54,788 | -9,672 | | T Main Transaction (Lots) | 76,221 | 76,613 | -392 | | TL Main Transaction (Lots) | 124,727 | 113,580 | 11,147 | [4]