市场回顾 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/11/24-2025/11/28 宏观数据分析 国家统计局发布10月工业企业利润数据，1—10月规上工业企业利润累计同比增长1.9%，当月同比下降 5.5%。累计同比角度，1—10月份采矿业下降27.8%，制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和 供应业增长9.5%。单月同比角度，10月上、中、下游行业利润同比增速依次 为-12.0%、-4.8%、-13.9%，中游中的计算机通信电子制造业、汽车制造业、有色金属压延加工业录得 正增长。在内需不足和反内卷背景下，上游能源和缺乏议价能力的下游行业利润持续承压。 压下的投资消费政策对冲或在美国降息周期下的宽松跟进，这是市场风格能否改变的决定性因素）。在 偏宽松的货币政策支持和低利率环境下，市场流动性充足，依旧支持主题性机会不断产生。 长期维度，中美长期斗争的基调已经确定，随着美国政策的底线逐渐清晰与持续增加赤字，国际资本市 场已经开始质疑美国政府的治理能力与制度信誉。但美元信用目前仍未被实质撼动，美债暂时也不存在 大风险。观察美国资本市场变化与我国是否会迎来战略机遇。当前在美国经济前景不确定+美联储降息 区间中 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline last week, with major indices showing reduced trading volume during the adjustment phase [2] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, media, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [2] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 51,000, although August's data was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations and previous values [3] - The strong non-farm data had already been factored into the market, leading to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in December to around 40% [3] - Future inflation data, such as PCE prices, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's December decision [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed wide fluctuations last week, with low trading volume and weak technical indicators [4] - The market's downward trend was anticipated, with several short-term negative macro factors, including geopolitical risks and concerns over AI giants' profitability [4] - Defensive dividend and cyclical sectors performed better in the short term, while the overall market is expected to remain volatile [4] - The long-term market structure is unlikely to change significantly, as the economic fundamentals and technology narratives remain stable [5] Long-term Perspective - The ongoing U.S.-China competition has established a clear baseline, with increasing skepticism about the U.S. government's governance and institutional credibility [6] - The RMB has appreciated against the USD amid uncertainties in the U.S. economic outlook and Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting China's equity market [6] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant excess deposits in the market [6] - A focus on defensive dividend sectors is recommended, with attention to catalysts in certain industries [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with trading volume continuing to decrease amid divergent market performance [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, the new social financing scale was 35,338 billion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 12,900 billion yuan; the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8% [5] - M1 new caliber stock year-on-year growth rate was 7.2%, up from 6.0% last month; M2 stock year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% [5] - The main contributors to new social financing were short-term loans to enterprises (increased by 0.25 trillion yuan year-on-year), corporate bonds (increased by 0.20 trillion yuan), and off-balance-sheet notes (increased by 0.19 trillion yuan) [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) in September was -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% the previous month; the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline [6] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with trading volume and margin financing continuing to decline, dropping below 2 trillion yuan [8] - The upcoming period until early November is expected to be filled with macro events, leading to a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market [8] - The technology sector's long-term logic remains intact, and its high valuations have seen some digestion during recent adjustments [8] - Defensive dividend sectors may see an increase in allocation in the short term, while attention should be paid to stocks with catalysts in the dividend sector [8] - The long-term outlook indicates that the ongoing U.S.-China struggle has set a baseline, with international capital markets beginning to question U.S. governance and institutional credibility [8] - The current liquidity environment remains supportive, with a potential influx of funds into the equity market as the wealth effect increases among residents [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of providing professional support to entrepreneurs through the "Jingwei Consultation" initiative, which aims to address specific challenges faced by startups in a more focused and personalized manner [4][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Jingwei Consultation" event is a public service initiative aimed at helping entrepreneurs by providing them with direct access to experienced investors and industry experts [5][7]. - The first session of the "Jingwei Consultation" is scheduled for June 19, 2025, in Beijing, with a focus on face-to-face interactions [5][16]. - Participants will have approximately 20 minutes for one-on-one consultations, with a limit of 2-3 questions to ensure in-depth discussions [15]. Group 2: Participation Criteria - The event is open to all entrepreneurs, regardless of their industry or funding stage, encouraging a diverse range of participants [7][19]. - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to ask specific, high-quality questions related to their business challenges, rather than seeking investment opportunities [10][17]. Group 3: Question Guidelines - The article outlines the types of questions that are encouraged, such as those addressing operational challenges, financial management, and strategic planning [9][11]. - Examples of "good questions" include inquiries about cost management and talent retention, while "bad questions" focus on investment opportunities or vague requests for general advice [10][11]. Group 4: Expert Involvement - The event will feature Jingwei's Zhang Ying and a team of investment professionals who will provide insights based on their extensive experience in the industry [13]. - The support team will include experts from various fields such as legal, finance, and public relations to ensure comprehensive guidance for participants [13].