[Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年11月25日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《美联储或再次转鸽》 ——2025 年 11月 18日 《A 股建议关注困境反转的周期行业》 ——2025 年 11月 11日 《A 股或维持高位震荡，债市与黄金短期波 动》 ——2025 年 11月 03日 延迟的数据，推迟的降息 ——固收&宏观周报（20251117-20251123） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股三大指数与恒生指数均下跌。 过去一周（20251117-20251123），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-2.74%、-1.95%与-1.91%，纳斯达克中 国科技股指数变化-6.06%；同时期恒生指数变化-5.09%。 A 股普跌。 过去一 ...

本周国内权益市场在多重因素作用下，出现一定程度的回调，年初至今涨幅较大的科技板块回调幅度相 对更大。特别是在11月21日，市场单日出现较大跌幅的情况下，投资者对于市场未来的走势产生了一定 程度的分歧。具体来看，上证50、沪深300和上证综指分别下跌2.7%、3.8%和3.9%。港股方面，恒生指 数和恒生科技分别下跌5.1%和7.2%。从行业来看，上周所有行业均下跌，银行食饮相对抗跌。上周银 行、食品饮料和传媒下跌相对较小，基础化工、电新和综合下跌较多。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 从外部因素看，自10月底美股科技巨头市值突破5万亿美元之后，市场对于AI泡沫化的质疑声音便不断 增强，主要集中在科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支预计将高达数万亿美元，但巨额投入尚未产生 清晰的投资回报，且面临技术快速迭代过时的风险，可能形成巨大沉没成本；同时AI巨头通过相互投 资，签订天价订单，这种内部循环的商业模式脆弱，一旦某个环节出问题，整个链条可能崩塌。在上周 美国科技巨头发布了超预期的三季报并给出了对未来更为积极的展望后，其股价仍然高开低走，进一步 引发了投资者的担忧。一项创新是否存在泡沫，特别是当我们身处时代 ...

A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.36%，创业板指涨0.9%。盘面上，CPO、光刻机、算力租赁等板块涨 幅居前。 这种情况下，调仓的思路不是刻意回避AI叙事，而是尽量选择ROE底部向上趋势性抬升的品种，从这 个角度来看，适度增加对化工、有色、电新这样沉寂比较久且利润率和行业景气度在历史相对低点的行 业，是更优的选择。 另外，AI叙事只是影响了行情斜率而不是趋势。，如果未来AI叙事出现波动，的确可能会带来这些行 业剧烈的波动，但只要ROE能实现从底部开始向上的持续抬升，这种股价波动都只是短期的(相对于那 些ROE在历史高点的行业而言)，不会威胁到本金安全。 招商证券：有色、钢铁、建材是当前可以考虑布局的顺周期选择 机构看后市 中信证券：适度增加化工、有色、电新的仓位，是更优的选择 10月以来市场波动加大，但择时成功率并不高，背后的原因是增量资金的底层结构在发生变化，稳健绝 对收益型资金持续入市在降低传统激进策略择时的有效性。当前真正重要的变量还是企业出海环境的稳 定性以及AI，涉及到的是中美关系以及AI基础设施的投建进程。当前不仅是TMT板块，连有色、化 工、电新的上涨直接或间接都受到AI叙事的影响，而这些板块占 ...

本周受美联储年内降息预期减弱影响，全球股市明显下跌，A 股亦未能"独善其身"。 展望后市，考虑权重指数本周才"刚刚"跌破趋势线，且全球资本市场波动尚未平息， 我们认为短期仍有惯性调整、逐步收敛的需要。需要指出的是，随着四季度市场风格 的"再平衡"，部分宽基指数的回调已较充分，在当前位置再无必要盲目止损。从更长 周期看，我们认为系统性"慢"牛仍未结束，并有望在调整后进入"二阶段"。配置方面， 基于"短期调整仍需时日，部分指数趋于到位，拉长周期慢牛仍在"的判断，我们建议： 择时方面，切勿盲目跟风杀跌，持仓静待调整结束，以目前回调至年线上方且具有爆 发力的券商板块作为"信号弹"，待券商启动时再度进行增配操作；行业配置和个股方 面应区分处理，对于近期刚刚破位的高位标的不宜恋战，但对于相对低位板块（如券 商、消费、地产、中字头基建等）和年线上方的低位滞涨个股则予以保留。 本周（2025-11-17 至 2025-11-21）行情概况 （1）主要指数：受海外股市波动影响，A 股主要宽基指数下跌。（2）板块观察： 主要行业系统回调，银行食饮相对抗跌。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比下降，主 要股指期货合约贴水。（4）资金流向： ...

沪深股通今日合计成交1920.55亿，其中工业富联和宁德时代分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方 面，银行板块主力资金净流入居首。ETF成交方面，房地产ETF（512200）成交额环比增长255%。期指持仓方面， IM合约空头加仓数量较多，IF合约多头加仓数量较多。龙虎榜方面，航天发展走出5连板，获一家一线游资席位 （中国银河大连黄河路）买入1.26亿，遭三家一线游资（国泰海通证券上海新闸路、东亚前海证券上海分公司、国 泰海通证券成都北一环路）分别卖出1.88亿、1.09亿、0.93亿。多氟多遭深股通卖出2亿，遭中金公司上海分公司席 位卖出8447万，同时遭一家机构卖出6517万。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为884.40亿，深股通总成交金额为1036.15亿。 | | | 沖股通( 11月20日 . D | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 601138 | 工业富联 | 14.59 | | 2 | 601600 | 中国铝V | 9.42 | | 3 | 603986 | 兆易创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core logic for global asset allocation in 2026 is to "follow the direction of credit expansion" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The hidden mainline of the market is that the direction of credit expansion determines the strength of assets and the flow of funds [3] - The past couple of years in the Chinese market have been characterized by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," with the recognized scarce assets changing over time [3] - Key factors for future market judgment include whether the liquidity environment has been damaged and whether scarce assets can expand to a broader range [3] Group 2: Credit Expansion and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 is framed around the "credit cycle," focusing on three main subjects of credit expansion [4] - In the Chinese market, the credit cycle is expected to experience a slowdown, with structural prosperity still present despite challenges [6] - The U.S. market is seeing a gradual recovery in the credit cycle, supported by fiscal and monetary easing, with no significant signs of bubble formation in AI investments [7] Group 3: Structural Opportunities in China - The overall credit cycle in China is expected to face challenges starting from Q4, but structural prosperity remains effective [9] - The correlation between market performance and economic expectations has increased, indicating a need to focus on structural trends for excess returns [9] - Three structural directions for prosperity include AI-driven trends, capacity cycle reversals, and external demand mapping [9] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong market in 2026 suggests limited index space, with potential growth coming from structural changes or unexpected pullbacks rather than pure valuation expansion [11] - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic valuation is currently at 11.4 times, indicating a position above the historical average, suggesting that the market is not "cheap" [11] Group 5: Recommended Investment Directions - It is advisable to maintain a moderate allocation to dividend assets to counter the weakening of the overall credit cycle [13] - Key sectors to focus on include AI software and hardware, electric new energy, chemicals, home furnishings, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with careful consideration of valuation and crowding [13] - A potential rise in China's PPI towards the end of this year could provide an opportunity for market shifts towards cyclical and certain consumer sectors [14]

每经AI快讯，11月18日，华泰证券发布策略研报称，10月全行业景气指数继续回落、但斜率有所放 缓，必选消费、中游制造、大金融景气改善幅度居前，TMT景气延续分化。配置上，短期哑铃型配置 强化，建议在成长、周期和红利中均衡配置，挖掘景气改善且有一定持续性、估值和筹码尚处于较低水 平的品种，科技拥挤度压力逐渐消化后或亦有修复机会，关注有色、化工、电新、通用自动化、存储、 军工、保险等，此外可左侧布局部分大众和服务消费，如乳制品等。 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Group 1 - The report outlines the "A-share high-low cut index" as a tool to track the pricing patterns in the A-share market, indicating that an increase in the index suggests a rise in the differentiation of returns among industries, while a peak followed by a decline indicates the emergence of high-low cut phenomena [1][2] - The report notes that typically, the A-share market experiences 2-3 significant high-low cut pricing cycles within a year, each lasting approximately 2-3 months. When the index exceeds the upper range (around 60%), it often signals an overheated high-position sector, while a drop to the lower range (around 30%) suggests the end of a low-position rebound or the brewing of a new differentiation cycle [1][3] - The report explains that high-low differentiation in the A-share market is driven by chip differentiation and fundamental divergence, particularly when there is a significant influx of capital and stark growth differences between high and low sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The report discusses the relationship between the high-low cut index and market structure, indicating that when the index peaks and declines, it often signals a recovery in low-position sectors, but the clarity of style switching depends on the logic signals from low-position sectors [3][4] - The report highlights that the high-low cut index often correlates with the overall market index, particularly when the index peaks and declines, which can signal a transition from a bull to a bear market [3][4] - The report emphasizes that since late October, the outperformance of overseas and low-position cyclical sectors has begun to manifest, with the report suggesting that true style switching will occur when liquidity transitions to a fundamental-driven market [4][5] Group 3 - The report provides a historical review of high-low cut phenomena, detailing significant transitions in market styles from 2017 to 2025, including shifts from cyclical sectors to consumer and technology sectors, and from high-dividend defensive sectors to low-position rebounds [6][10] - The report notes that the high-low cut phenomenon in 2023 was characterized by a shift from technology-driven sectors to low-position cyclical sectors, driven by policy catalysts in the real estate market [19][22] - The report indicates that the most recent high-low cut in October 2025 reflects a transition from high-position technology sectors to low-position cyclical resources, influenced by macroeconomic factors and policy expectations [27][28]

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - **U.S. Stocks**: Over the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -3.04%, -1.63%, and -1.21% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by -3.39% [2] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index changed by 1.29% during the same period [2] - **A - shares**: The wind All - A Index changed by 0.63%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 0.94%, 0.82%, -0.04%, 0.47%, 0.88%, and 3.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, most indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.79%. Among 30 Citic industries, 17 industries rose and 13 fell, with electric power and new energy, steel, petrochemicals, coal, and basic chemicals leading the gains with weekly increases of over 3.0%. Grid equipment, photovoltaic, carbon neutrality, new energy, coal, environmental protection, and Hong Kong stock dividend ETFs led with weekly increases of over 4% [3] Bond Market - **Chinese Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.22% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 1.88 BP to 1.8142%. Yields of all maturity varieties increased, and the yield curve shifted upward [4] - **Funding and Leverage**: As of November 7, 2025, R007 was 1.4677%, down 2.46 BP from October 31, 2025; DR007 was 1.4130%, down 4.21 BP, and the spread between them widened. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan in the past week. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume increasing from 6.70 trillion yuan on October 31, 2025, to 7.97 trillion yuan on November 7, 2025 [5][7] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20251103 - 20251109), long - term U.S. Treasury bond yields rose while short - term yields fell. As of November 7, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.11% compared to October 31, 2025. The yield curve became steeper [8] Currency and Commodity Markets - **Exchange Rates**: The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.18% in the past week (20251103 - 20251109), and the U.S. dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The U.S. dollar exchange rate against the offshore and onshore RMB increased slightly [9] - **Gold Prices**: Gold prices continued to fall in the past week (20251103 - 20251109). London gold spot prices decreased by 0.43% to $3994.10 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.01% to $3995.20 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also fell, with Shanghai gold spot down 0.38% to 918.03 yuan per gram and futures down 0.16% to 919.02 yuan per gram [10] Outlook and Recommendations - **A - shares**: A - shares are likely to maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in sectors such as electric power and new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemicals, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence [11] - **Bond Market**: High risk appetite is not conducive to the bond market, but the high absolute yield has long - term allocation value [11] - **Gold**: Although the long - term upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, there is a lack of short - term catalysts for growth, and it is likely to decline slightly or move sideways [11]