他指出，当前大类资产配置的核心时代背景是"大国博弈"， 来源：市场资讯 文章转载自2025年12月3日六里投资报发布的文章《张忆东今天前瞻2026：中国牛市风雨无阻，美股AI 浪潮，很可能是一个刚性泡沫》。 12月3日，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在智通财经年会上，以"牛市风雨无阻，耐心做多"为题 发表了主题演讲。 美国当前依靠债务扩张驱动市场繁荣，联邦政府债台高筑，杠杆率超过120%，每年还本付息压力巨 大。 政策上，对内大放水买选票，对外通过关税试图开源，方向其实都是宽松， 而且，降息的诉求非常强大，预计明年美元继续走弱，联储继续息。 另一方面，科技成为美国维持经济长期竞争力的诺亚方舟，AI相关投资对美国实际GDP贡献已超过 40%； 从这个逻辑来说，不要低估这一次AI科技，很可能是一个刚性泡沫。 中国则正迎来历史机遇， 中央政府资产负债表健康，国债余额34.5万亿人民币，占GDP仅26%，远低于美国的120%，具备较强政 策调控空间。 而房地产拖累最严重的阶段可能即将过去，其对GDP贡献已从近30%降至13%左右。 未来中国将更加注重通过"股权财政"与资本市场，盘活资产端，推动经济转型。 中央汇金持 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from being a "critic" to a "practical manager," focusing on balancing multiple objectives in a complex economic environment [4][2] - Zhu Ning highlights the importance of conveying correct expectations as a crucial public good in the current economic landscape [4] Economic Paradigm Shift - Zhu Ning, known for predicting the Chinese real estate bubble, has developed a new understanding of bubbles and debt in the context of significant economic changes [3] - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance aligns with Zhu Ning's advocacy for breaking rigid repayment structures and allowing market risk pricing [3] Global Financial Risks - Zhu Ning identifies three overlapping risks in the global financial system: debt leverage traps, the rigidity of asset bubbles, and non-linear shocks from technological finance [4][10] - He warns that the AI era may lead to a degradation of human judgment and create regulatory blind spots, potentially causing traditional risk management systems to fail [4] U.S. Economic Uncertainty - The current tight funding situation in the U.S. is attributed to a combination of policy expectations, fiscal constraints, and asset valuations, which increases volatility in global risk assets [6] - Zhu Ning points out that the unpredictability of U.S. policies, inflation paths, and the fragility of U.S. stock valuations are significant sources of uncertainty for global economic growth [7][8][9] China's Economic Outlook - Zhu Ning expresses a relatively optimistic view of China's economy, noting improvements in market expectations despite ongoing concerns about deflation [13] - He emphasizes the need for structural responses rather than cyclical judgments, highlighting the importance of resource allocation towards "new productive forces" [13] Policy Recommendations - Zhu Ning suggests a balanced approach to managing bubbles, advocating for controlling their growth, avoiding proactive destruction, and ensuring rapid assistance if they burst [25] - He emphasizes the need for fiscal policies that directly stimulate consumption and rebuild public confidence [25] Non-linear Dynamics in Finance - Zhu Ning discusses the challenges of understanding the current non-linear economic landscape, where traditional predictive models may no longer apply [27] - He warns of the dangers of over-reliance on AI, which can lead to a degradation of independent judgment and the spread of misleading information [29] Investment Strategies - Zhu Ning advises extreme diversification in investment portfolios and a thorough understanding of risk, cautioning against traditional investment behaviors [32] - He highlights the potential for significant volatility in U.S. stocks, particularly due to high valuations and structural weaknesses exacerbated by AI-related bubbles [33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving understanding of bubbles and debt in the context of the current economic paradigm shift, emphasizing the need for sustainable debt management and market risk pricing [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Risks and Market Dynamics - The global financial system faces three overlapping risks: debt leverage traps, asset bubble rigidity, and nonlinear shocks from technology finance, particularly AI [2][5] - The current tight funding environment in the U.S. is a result of a combination of policy expectations, fiscal constraints, and asset valuations, which increases volatility in global risk assets [3][4] - The U.S. stock market is at historically high valuations, raising concerns about potential corrections that could impact global innovation and risk asset performance [5][6] Group 2: China's Economic Outlook - Despite global uncertainties, China's market shows relative attractiveness due to improvements in stock market expectations and structural economic transitions [7][8] - The Chinese economy is undergoing a painful but necessary process of clearing out systemic costs, which could create space for new productive forces [7][8] - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality growth through technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing social welfare [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt extreme diversification and to be aware of the inherent risks in the current market environment, particularly regarding AI-related assets [19][20] - The article suggests that the next significant market volatility may occur in the U.S. stock market, driven by high valuations and structural weaknesses [20]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of great companies often coincides with the process of bubbles forming and bursting, particularly in the context of technological revolutions and economic cycles [6][38]. Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been in a correction phase since 2021, with expectations that it will stabilize around 2027 [6][64]. - The adjustment in the real estate market has seen a general decline in property prices by 20%-30% since 2021, with predictions of further declines of 20%-30% in the coming years [64][66]. - The rental yield in major Chinese cities is significantly lower than international standards, indicating a potential overvaluation of real estate [65]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance and Market Dynamics - Behavioral biases such as overconfidence, linear extrapolation, and reluctance to cut losses are prevalent among investors, leading to irrational market behaviors [21][22][23]. - The strong local preference among investors can lead to a lack of diversification in investment portfolios, increasing vulnerability to market downturns [19][20]. - The social network effects in East Asian societies amplify these behavioral biases, leading to herd behavior in investment decisions [26][27]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Observations - The technology and innovation sectors, including AI and new energy vehicles, are experiencing significant investment interest, but historical patterns suggest that such enthusiasm often leads to bubbles [54][57]. - The new energy vehicle industry faces challenges of overcapacity, with reports indicating that production capacity in certain sectors exceeds global demand by 150% [58]. - The government’s role in guiding industry development has led to both opportunities and challenges, including the risk of overcapacity due to competitive local government policies [82]. Group 4: Recommendations for Stakeholders - Entrepreneurs should maintain their passion for innovation while being realistic about the challenges of the entrepreneurial journey [42][88]. - Investors, particularly in venture capital and private equity, should focus on understanding the underlying value of projects and avoid speculative investments [49][50]. - The government should shift its focus from traditional infrastructure investments to enhancing social welfare systems to boost consumer confidence and spending [78][81].