近些年，我国经济领域出现了一个奇怪的现象：一边是央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月末，广义货币（M2）余额为336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。M2的 规模是GDP的2倍。另一边却是国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）与上年持平。这意味着，在货币超发的情况之下， 不仅没有出现通胀，而且物价还保持平稳状态。也就是说，目前国内经济处于通缩的周期之内。 而导致国内经济处于通缩周期的原因主要三个：首先，大量超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向商品市场。所以，商品市场的价格根本涨不起来。再 者，现在各行各业都不景气，多数人收入增长放缓或下降，这就导致了消费市场需求下降；最后，由于传统行业产能过剩，同业竞争激烈，为了能把滞销的 商品买出去，不少厂商只能选择降价促销。如此一来，各类商品价格就始终处于相对稳定的周期内。 在通缩的周期内，社会将处于相对缺钱的状态，应该现金为王。届时一些资产泡沫会破灭，而那些高收益投资品的风险也会上升。所以，建议普通人不要盲 目去炒股、投资房产、购买基金和银行理财产品。更不要因贪图高收益而购买资产管理公司的各类理财产品，否则蚀掉本金就是大概率的事情。 第二， ...

以下文章来源于铅笔道 ，作者铅笔道 铅笔道 . 最近10年，获得融资最多的科技媒体之一，关注科技主流趋势。自2015年成立以来，始终践行"Pencil never lies"的内容理念，真实报道创新企业15000家， 内容单周最高影响1600万人群。 还记得雷士照明创始人吴长江吗？10年前，他曾因罪被判10年（挪用资金与职务侵占），最近他出狱了， 并注册了个人抖音号。 12月4日到9日，吴长江在抖音连发6条 分享自己在创业过程中的犯错经历——用1.7亿买了个资本教训。 一晚上输过上亿 创业，永远不要去赌博。 吴长江说，当年真正把他推入深渊的，不是资本局，是赌博。他为什么挪用公司资金？因为补赌债。 导语：创业，永远不要去赌博。 请看他的原话。 "我贪了王冬雷（德豪润达董事长）的8亿借款承诺，跟他换股后他却说没钱。没办法，我们用公司担保贷了5个多亿，最后被提前划扣，造成公司 巨额损失，我因挪用资金罪入狱，整整十年——看守所7年多，监狱2年多。" 早在8年前，国内创投圈就有个小范围共识：凡是喜欢打德扑的创业者，一律不投，更别提赌博。 我不仅不建议创业者赌博，还反对一切在非主业上的高风险行为。 看完我有点震撼。吴长江 ...

最近，有不少人频繁拿马云的"预言"作为噱头，编造出"马云对2026年，手中有存款的人，将面临3大现实"的预言。而经过我们的仔细查证，基本可以判定 这是虚假信息。马云近期并没有发表此类讲话。不过，我们先抛开马云的预言不谈，单从当前投资环境、存款市场形势来分析，明年手中有存款人，或将要 面临的3大现实。 现实一：躺在存款上吃利息已经不可能了 众所周知，马云不仅是电商领域的大佬，也是国内最具影响力的公众人物之一。这主要是马云曾经发表过一些关于金融、房地产、电商等领域的趋势预测。 刚开始时，很多人都没把他的话当回事。而事后却都证实他的确实具有预见性。所以，马云每次对趋势预测的讲话，都被不少人视为投资的方向和参考。 随着存款利息收入越来越少，工作越来越难找。于是，很多人就把家里的存款拿出来用于投资创业，但绝大多数创业者都是以失败而告终。这里面主要有两 方面的原因：一个是，现在国内居民收入增长放缓，消费需求萎缩，导致企业大量商品滞销，资金无法及时回笼，就难以生存下去。另一个是，现在传统行 业都已经严重过剩了，作为新人在没有经验、没有资源、没有品牌的情况下，是很难与具有丰富从业经验的同行展开竞争的。 现如今，只要你手里有一 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by individuals holding cash in the current economic environment, highlighting a significant increase in household savings and the associated investment risks [1][3][11] Group 1: Economic Context - As of October 2024, household deposits in China exceeded 145 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, indicating a trend of cash accumulation among families and individuals [1] - Changes in consumer behavior during the pandemic have led to a greater emphasis on saving for emergencies, alongside adjustments in the real estate market and stock market volatility [1][3] Group 2: Investment Risks - Increased investment risks are a primary concern for cash holders, with real estate prices adjusting since 2021 and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in national commercial housing sales area in the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4] - The stock market has experienced significant fluctuations, with many investors struggling to achieve consistent profits, even among blue-chip stocks [3][4] - The yield on bank wealth management products has decreased from around 4% to below 3%, increasing the risk for investors due to the breaking of rigid repayment guarantees [3][4] Group 3: Challenges in Entrepreneurship - The current entrepreneurial environment is more complex, with intense market competition and rising costs, such as rent and labor, making it difficult for new businesses to succeed [6][8] - For instance, over 70% of new restaurants close within their first year, illustrating the high failure rate in the food service industry [6] - E-commerce ventures face challenges such as high customer acquisition costs and severe competition, leading many to struggle to recoup their initial investments [6][8] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Diversification is recommended as a strategy to mitigate risks, encouraging individuals to spread their investments across various asset classes [7][11] - Long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, can help smooth out market volatility and reduce risk exposure [7][11] - Seeking professional financial advice is suggested for those lacking investment experience, as personalized asset allocation can enhance financial planning [11] Group 5: Personal Financial Planning - A balanced asset allocation strategy is proposed, with suggestions for holding 30% in cash, 40% in stable investment products, 20% in low-risk entrepreneurial projects, and 10% in personal development [12] - The importance of understanding individual risk tolerance and financial goals is emphasized, as each person's financial situation is unique [12]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with property prices in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing substantial declines, reflecting a broader trend of "de-bubbling" in the market [3][5] - The downward trend in savings rates is evident, with a notable decrease in three-year deposit interest rates from 3.25% to 2.15%, indicating a challenging environment for savers [5][7] - By 2025, depositors may face three major challenges: declining deposit interest rates, increasing risks in high-yield investments, and the difficulties associated with entrepreneurship [5][8][9] Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China is shifting, with once-stable cities now seeing price drops, exemplified by Shanghai's average price falling from over 90,000 yuan per square meter to around 60,000 yuan, a decrease of approximately 30% [3] - Many second and third-tier cities are experiencing even steeper declines, with prices dropping to as low as 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per square meter, highlighting a significant market correction [3] Group 2: Savings and Investment Challenges - The trend of declining deposit interest rates is expected to continue, driven by an oversupply of bank deposits and weak loan demand, which pressures banks to lower rates [5][7] - As deposit interest rates decrease, many savers are considering reallocating their funds to higher-risk investments, but most lack the necessary expertise, increasing the likelihood of losses [7][8] - The stock market has seen a significant decline, with the A-share market losing approximately 26.94 trillion yuan in total market value in 2024, resulting in average losses of around 140,000 yuan per investor [8] - The performance of various investment products, including funds and bank wealth management products, has also deteriorated, with many investors facing losses of 20% to 30% [8] Group 3: Entrepreneurship Risks - The combination of falling deposit rates and a challenging job market is prompting individuals to consider entrepreneurship as a path to financial freedom, but this route is fraught with high risks [9] - Success in entrepreneurship requires exceptional skills, resilience, and thorough preparation, as many ventures fail, potentially leading to significant financial losses for those who invest their savings [9]