登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 专题：南方财经论坛2025年会 由南方财经全媒体集团主办、21世纪数字传媒主要承办的"南方财经论坛2025年会"于12月5-6日在广州 南方财经大厦举办，主题为"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"。清华大学国家金融研究院院 长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩出席并演讲。 推动科技创新，需要什么样的资本市场，需要怎么样的金融去支持？对此，田轩提出：第一、需要更加 包容的创投市场；第二、需要"不太积极"的二级市场。 具体来说，他解释到，"更加包容的创投市场"指首先要对人来包容。他提到，研究表示，超级独角兽的 创业者身上有大概十几个特质，除去优点之外，都带有一般意义上的缺点，比如疯狂的、孤僻的、不好 相处的、多余的、冷漠的，甚至自私的。核心逻辑是因为创业创新做的是从0到1，无中生有的事情，不 可能像正常人一样循规蹈矩。这些超级创业者必须是特立独行，离经叛道，才会有各种各样的奇思妙想 不断地涌现出来，这是超级创业者身上的特质。 他以马斯克为例，"他私生活极其不检点，各种行为非常怪异乖张。但是这些特质让他能够有各种各样 的奇思妙想，以及眼花缭乱各种各样的科技创新。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Finance Forum 2025 emphasizes the need for a more inclusive venture capital market and a less aggressive secondary market to support technological innovation and achieve high-level self-reliance in technology [1][5]. Group 1: Venture Capital Market - A more inclusive venture capital market is necessary, which should be open to diverse entrepreneurs, including those with unconventional traits that drive innovation [3][7]. - The characteristics of "super unicorn" entrepreneurs often include traits that are typically seen as negative, such as being eccentric or difficult to work with, which are essential for groundbreaking innovation [3][7]. - The current venture capital market in China lacks "patient capital," with fund lifespans averaging 5-7 years compared to the 10-12 years typical in the U.S., limiting investments in early-stage projects [8][9]. Group 2: Limited Partners (LPs) - The composition of LPs in China has shifted from individual investors to state-owned entities, which, while inherently patient, are often risk-averse due to concerns over state asset preservation [4][9]. - The risk-averse nature of state-backed venture capital institutions leads to insufficient support for early-stage investments, hindering technological innovation [4][9]. Group 3: Secondary Market - A less aggressive secondary market is needed, characterized by strong anti-takeover provisions, limited stock liquidity, a focus on long-term institutional investors, fewer analysts tracking stocks, and less frequent information disclosure [4][9]. - The combination of a more inclusive venture capital market and a less aggressive secondary market is essential for leveraging technology and finance to support innovation and achieve technological self-reliance [4][9].

Core Insights - The recent surge in venture capital activity indicates a strong interest in the technology sector, reminiscent of the 2015 bull market in the startup space [1] - Retail investors are experiencing "missed opportunity anxiety," often hesitating to invest even as stock prices rise significantly [3] - The current venture capital market is characterized by a consensus among large institutional investors, which is driving substantial investment growth [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The venture capital market is seeing a significant influx of funds, with state-owned capital accounting for 75%-80% of investments and bank-affiliated AIC funds reaching a scale of 198 billion [3] - The total scale of venture capital funds is projected to reach 1.78 trillion by the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.25% [4] - Investment scale in the sector has increased to 912 billion, marking a growth of 19.98% [4] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Institutions tend to accumulate stocks quietly over time, often leading to a prolonged "dead period" before significant price movements occur [5] - Quantitative data indicates that stocks may show minimal price changes while institutional activity remains high, suggesting accumulation rather than selling pressure [8] - The pattern of three phases of price increases, with decreasing intervals, indicates growing urgency among institutions to invest [14] Group 3: Recommendations for Retail Investors - Retail investors should abandon the fantasy of timing the market perfectly and instead focus on monitoring capital flows using quantitative tools [16] - Stocks that remain stagnant during a bull market may warrant closer attention, as they could indicate institutional accumulation [16] - Trusting quantitative data over personal intuition is crucial, especially when there is a conflict between the two [16] - The current technology sector exemplifies a strong consensus among major investors, suggesting that this trend is likely to continue [16]

Core Insights - The development of a well-functioning capital market is crucial for nurturing new productive forces, emphasizing the importance of venture capital and private equity in supporting the lifecycle of innovative enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Importance of Venture Capital - The lifecycle of enterprises, especially innovative ones, includes various stages such as seed, startup, growth, and maturity, which require different financing and risk management tools [1] - Venture capital plays a critical role in supporting early-stage innovative enterprises when traditional financing methods are inadequate [1][2] Group 2: Recommendations for Enhancing the Venture Capital Market - It is essential to streamline the "fundraising-investment-management-exit" process, particularly improving exit channels to stabilize the venture capital market [2] - Reforming the management philosophy and model of government or state-owned venture capital funds is necessary to increase risk tolerance and extend performance evaluation periods [2] - Supporting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is vital for accelerating the integration of technological and industrial innovation [2] - Developing a robust merger and acquisition market is crucial, as it serves as an important exit channel for venture capital funds, particularly for high-potential innovative enterprises [2]

Market Overview - The Chinese venture capital market in 2024 experienced a historical low, with a total of 10,701 disclosed financing events, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. The total financing amount reached 534.4 billion yuan, down 19%, marking the lowest figures in nearly a decade [1][21]. - The market exhibited two significant characteristics: a decline in the proportion of dollar financing, which accounted for only 15% of the total, while RMB financing became the mainstay, with an average financing amount rising to 16.8 million yuan [1][24]. Information Disclosure Trends - A notable 63.1% of financing events were not publicly reported, indicating that "underwater financing" has become mainstream. Sectors such as artificial intelligence and consumer goods had relatively higher public financing disclosure rates [2][30]. Industry and Sector Analysis - Advanced manufacturing led the financing landscape, accounting for 30% of total financing, followed by healthcare and artificial intelligence at 15% and 5%, respectively. Strategic emerging industries made up over 93% of the total, with high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials seeing a doubling in their share [3]. - Emerging sectors like embodied intelligence, eVTOL aircraft, and commercial space saw financing numbers grow by over 30% year-on-year, while traditional sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and semiconductor equipment faced significant declines. Although the number of financing events in artificial intelligence decreased by 11%, the financing amount increased by 8%, with large model-related projects becoming focal points [3]. Financing Stages and Urban Dynamics - The focus of financing has shifted towards early-stage projects, with early-stage financing accounting for 38.99% of total financing. The number of first-round financing events dropped to 4,865, representing only 45.46% of the total, indicating increased difficulty for new enterprises to secure funding [4]. - Shanghai surpassed Beijing for the first time in financing volume, recording 1,024 events, with Beijing and Shenzhen following closely. The Yangtze River Delta cities dominated the top 15 venture capital cities, showcasing distinct regional characteristics [4][5][6]. Institutional Dynamics - The number of active investment institutions decreased by 31% year-on-year, with leading institutions reducing their investment frequency by 45%. However, government-guided funds performed well, with 90% of institutions that registered over 10 funds being state-owned [7]. - The proportion of venture capital funds rose to 45.35%, with the average single fundraising amount increasing from 389 million yuan to 559 million yuan. Large-scale funds (over 1 billion yuan) accounted for 76.6% of total fundraising [8][9]. Exit Market - The IPO market cooled down significantly, with the number of A-share IPOs dropping by 68% to only 100 companies listed. However, the support rate from VC/PE remained stable at 67%, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board support rate reaching 98.51% [10]. - The M&A market showed signs of recovery, with a 40% year-on-year increase in M&A events, driven by policy support for resource optimization through mergers and acquisitions [10]. Future Outlook - Despite being in a downturn, the 2024 market shows resilience in advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy sectors. Structural opportunities led by state-owned and industrial capital are emerging, with a focus on cutting-edge sectors like embodied intelligence and AIGC applications, which may drive future market recovery [11].