Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an increased amount last week. Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose. The market risk appetite increased due to the news of a potential cease - fire in the Middle East. The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing a continuous recovery. Looking ahead, there is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. With the gradual easing of the Middle East situation, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, the T2606 contract rose by 0.14%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 9009 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 1bp, DR007 rate decreased by 1.77bp, and GC007 rate decreased by 1.8bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 1.24bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 45.58bp [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds declined. The 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 9bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.2bp [2]. 3.4 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 30, the central bank carried out 26.95 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan. In the future, the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [3]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US President said that Iran had agreed to most of the content of the cease - fire plan, but Iran had different views, and the situation was still uncertain [3]. - **Economic Data**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise efficiency continued to recover [3]. - **Tax Policy**: The Ministry of Finance plans to formulate and revise laws such as the local surtax law [3]. - **Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption [3]. - **Local Government Debt**: As of March 30, local governments issued about 0.96 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts, accounting for nearly half of the planned issuance scale this year [3]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: In the money market, most interest rates declined. The yields of US treasury bonds also declined across the board [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 27, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the profit data of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February. The profits of national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 14.6 percentage points compared with the whole previous year. The profits of industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and semiconductors soared in the first two months of this year [2]. - The State Council executive meeting emphasized the need to fully tap the development potential of the service industry, promote the specialization of producer services and their extension to the high - end of the value chain, and promote the high - quality, diversified, and convenient development of consumer services [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to be intense and stalemated. Iran has stepped up its attacks on the US and Israel, and the frequency and intensity of air - raids on Tehran have increased significantly. The market's inflation expectations have generally risen, and the pricing logic of the bond market is gradually shifting from inflation factors to concerns about economic slowdown [3][4]. - The yields of treasury bond spot bonds generally declined on Monday. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board. The DR007 weighted average interest rate fell back to around 1.43%. With the support of existing and incremental policies, the production side has significantly accelerated at the beginning of the year, and the profits of most industries have rebounded. The central bank will adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Trading Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.15%, 0.1%, 0.04%, and 0.38% respectively. The trading volumes of T and TL main contracts increased by 6510 and 6722 respectively, while those of TF and TS main contracts decreased by 533 and 3353 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads showed changes, such as the TL2606 - 2609 spread decreased by 0.03, and the T2606 - 2609 spread increased by 0.01 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased. Among the top 20 long and short positions, there were different changes in each contract [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 260007.IB (6y) increased by 0.1233 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10y active treasury bonds generally declined, with the 1y yield decreasing by 0.75bp, the 3y yield decreasing by 1.15bp, etc. [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.41bp, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp. The silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 1.23bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.00bp, etc. [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 2695 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 80 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.5 Key Events and Data to Watch - March 31, 09:30, China's official manufacturing PMI for March - April 3, 20:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for March [4]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time historical percentiles of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures price - spot price spreads and inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the IF futures price - spot price spread is - 81.53, with a change of 5.93 from the previous day, and 1 - year and all - time historical percentiles of 2.40% and 2.20% respectively [1]. - The ratios of different stock indices such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., along with their changes and percentiles, are provided. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.7068, with a change of - 0.0051, and 1 - year and all - time historical percentiles of 81.50% and 77.30% respectively [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - The latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of the basis and inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures are given. For example, the TS basis on March 26, 2026, is 0.0400, with a change of 0.0012 from the previous day, and a percentile of 8.809 since listing [3]. - The cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., along with their changes and percentiles, are presented. For example, the TS - TF spread on March 26, 2026, is - 3.4600, with a change of - 0.0450, and a percentile of 13.10% [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - The closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of domestic and foreign precious metal futures contracts on March 26 and March 25 are reported. For example, the AU2606 contract closed at 095.98 on March 26, down 17.98 (- 1.77%) from March 25 [4]. - The spot prices, price changes, and price change rates of precious metals such as London gold, London silver, etc., are provided. For example, the price of London gold on March 26 is 4379.82, down 125.49 (- 2.79%) from March 25 [4]. - The basis values, their changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles are presented. For example, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 6.21, with a change of - 6.69, and a 1 - year historical percentile of 46.10% [4]. - The ratios between different precious metals, along with their changes and price change rates, are given. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio is 64.25, up 1.22 (1.93%) [4]. - The values of interest rates, exchange rates, inventories, and positions, along with their changes, are reported. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.42, up 0.09 (2.1%) [4]. - Investment suggestions are provided: in the short - term, although the US is actively promoting peace talks with Iran, reaching a cease - fire agreement may be difficult, and there may be intense conflicts, causing the gold price to fall again. In the medium - to - long - term, allocation should be cautious. In the short - term, one can try to buy call options around $4400 to seize the opportunity of a phased recovery. Silver may gradually bottom out around $60 - 65, with resistance at $85. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money call options on Shanghai silver. Platinum and palladium fluctuate widely following the trends of gold and silver, with platinum fluctuating in the range of $1850 - 2000 and palladium in the range of $1450 - 1600 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trend of TL2606 is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is bullish. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - The overall intraday view of financial futures in the stock index sector is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The market sentiment is cautious due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation situation, increasing the safe - haven demand for national debt. However, the domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing, so the upward momentum of national debt is limited in the short term. The future trend of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, needs to be concerned. In general, national debt futures will be mainly in the range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that national debt futures closed up oscillatory yesterday. The inconsistent news between Iran and the US in the US - Iran negotiation indicates large differences and high uncertainty, which makes the market sentiment cautious and increases the safe - haven demand for national debt. But the domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing, so the upward momentum of national debt is limited in the short term. The future trend of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, needs to be concerned [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis repeatedly disturbs market sentiment. Due to weak inflation data and insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, supporting Treasury bond futures. But geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum. The domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is volatile, the medium - term view is also volatile, and the intraday view is bullish. The overall view is volatile consolidation, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. Due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the risks of global price increases and global macro - economic weakening have risen. China's inflation data is weak, and there is a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand. The future monetary and credit environment will be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, which supports bond futures. However, there is still a possibility that overseas central banks will tighten monetary policy, and the current domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, with policy leaning towards structural easing. Bond futures are under pressure and support, and will fluctuate within a range in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is defined as within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to a month. The short - term and medium - term views are volatile, the intraday view is bullish, and the view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risks of global price increases and economic weakening. China's inflation is weak, and the future monetary environment is expected to be loose, supporting bond futures. But there is a risk of overseas monetary tightening, and domestic economic indicators are resilient, with policy leaning towards structural easing. The future trend of bond futures depends on the impact of the geopolitical crisis on inflation and export data [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "slightly bullish", with an overall view of "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly range - bound oscillation. On one hand, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the escalating Middle East geopolitical crisis increases the risk of global energy supply shortage and supply chain disruptions, which suppresses global economic activities, raises the risk of macro - economic recession, and drives down the risk - free interest rate. Also, the crisis reduces the investment preference for global risk assets, increasing the safe - haven demand for Treasury bonds. However, there is still a risk of rising imported inflation, which may inhibit the central bank's monetary easing policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "slightly bullish", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "slightly bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. The loose monetary and credit environment, the Middle East geopolitical crisis increasing the risk of economic recession and driving down the risk - free interest rate, and the increased safe - haven demand for Treasury bonds support the Treasury bond futures. But the risk of rising imported inflation may inhibit the central bank's monetary easing policy, and in the short term, Treasury bond futures are mainly in range - bound oscillation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis and the central bank's preference for structural interest rate cuts, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, putting pressure on Treasury bond futures. However, due to slow consumption and investment growth and low price levels, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoints Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small oscillatory callback yesterday. The long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis may restrict the global central bank's loose policy. The central bank prefers structural interest rate cuts, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. However, slow consumption and investment growth and low price levels mean that the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The external situation is that the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly yesterday. Externally, the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Due to the sudden outbreak of the US - Iran conflict last weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment rose rapidly, increasing the investment demand for national debt and driving up prices. However, geopolitical risks are only short - term disturbing factors. The price trend of national debt futures will return to its own fundamentals. In the short term, the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the upward driving force of national debt futures is insufficient. In the long - term, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is generally loose, and the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists, so national debt futures have strong support. Overall, national debt futures will maintain shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is bullish, and the view is shock consolidation. The core logic is the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The driving factors include the US - Iran conflict increasing risk - aversion and investment demand for national debt, while geopolitical risks are short - term. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut, and in the long - term, there is support from the expectation of an interest rate cut [5].