投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡上涨。消息面，上周末美伊冲突突然爆发，避险情绪快速升温，国债 的投资需求增加推动价格上涨。不过地缘政治风险只是短线的扰动因素，国债期货的价格走势仍将回 归 ...

国债期货研发报告 国债期货 12 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 关注"两会"政策信息 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月债市先强后弱，期债盘面估值多数时间相对偏低。截止 2 月 26 日 收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 下季合约月内分别+0.02%、+0.07%、+0.08%、 +0.08%；IRR 分别为 1.3501%、1.3663%、1.5736%、1.7096%。 【市场展望】 国内基本面平稳，外需支撑尚存的情况下，随着"两会"临近，年内财 政力度与发力方向明确前，债市长端情绪预计仍将偏谨慎。与此同时，从与 资金利差角度看，政策利率调降预期升温前，中短端做多赔率也相对不足。 缺乏利多因素的驱动，短期内债市走势或将有所反复，月末机构行为变化存 在进一步放大市场波动的可能性。 但中期维度，考虑到年内财政政策力度或不会超出市场预期，结构性的 物价修复导致货币政策收紧的概率不高以及外部环境的不确定性同样尚未 完全消除等因素，我们暂维持对债市走势偏乐观的判断。 曲线方面，当前中短端斜率相对平坦，长端偏陡峭，主要原因可能还是 与投资者沿着收益率曲线挖掘正 Carry 且风险小的交易与配置机会有关。 后续 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。中长期来看，宏观经济指标有所走弱说明内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，未来降息预期仍存，加上大宗商品与权益市场波动加剧，国债投资需求有所上升，国债期 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 宏观金融团队 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 110.590 | 110.610 | 111.000 | 110.950 | 0.410 | 0.37 | 12 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下 跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周三央行开展了 5288 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 260 亿元逆 回购到期，当日合计净投放 5028 亿元。1 月 4 日央行开展 365 亿元 7 天逆回购操作， | | | | | 当日日有 2701 亿元 7 天期和 2000 亿元 14 天期逆回购到期，当日实现净回笼 4336 | | | | | 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：跨年之后，1 月 4 日银行间市场正常交易，资金利率全线回落，DR001 | | | | | 全天加权平均为 1.24%；DR007 ...

周度报告-国债期货 TL 反弹受阻，调整风险仍存 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货反弹受阻 本周（12.08-12.14）国债期货反弹受阻。周一，上午股市震荡上 涨，债市继续下跌。午间公布的 11 月出口增速超预期，债市下 跌加速。下午政治局会议通稿公布，表述未超市场预期，国债 期货拉升，但随即再度小幅走弱。周二，股市震荡走弱，叠加 市场预期大行拉长久期的能力上升，国债期货震荡上涨。周 三，上午 PPI 增速低于市场预期，股市走弱，国债期货震荡上 涨。午后市场对稳地产政策发力的预期一度升温，债市回吐部 分涨幅，但最终继续上涨。周四，美联储如期降息，并宣布宣 布购买美国国债。但国内权益资产大幅下跌，叠加资金均衡偏 松，国债期货上涨。周五，由于中央经济工作会议提及"灵活 高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，国债期货高开，但随即 市场认为短期内降息概率不高，国债期货转而下跌。截至 12 月 12 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结 算价分别为 102.462、105.820、107.9 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is volatile consolidation, with the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreasing and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still existing [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The overall short - term trend of Treasury bond futures is mainly volatile consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is weak, with a view of volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts decreases while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, yesterday's Treasury bond futures were volatile. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1.9% but a decline in performance. Combined with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for additional monetary policy at the end of the year, so the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Focus on the statement of monetary policy in the December key meeting [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The economic fundamentals continue to recover, and the implementation of broad fiscal policies requires a low - interest - rate environment. The market expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TL main contract closing prices rose by 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.22% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T and TF trading volumes increased by 3915 and 4624 respectively, while TS and TL decreased by 1360 and 3686 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread increasing by 0.01, while others like T2512 - 2603 decreased by 0.03 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TL main contract positions increased, while TF and TS decreased. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL all increased [2]. 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, with 220017.IB decreasing by 0.1562 and 250018.IB increasing by 0.0390 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year active bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.25bp, and 0.10bp respectively, while the 7 - year and 10 - year yields increased by 0.25bp and 0.50bp respectively [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, as well as Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates all increased [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The issuance scale was 1199 billion yuan, and the expiration scale was 783 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse - repurchase [2]. 5. Industry News - **Domestic**: In October, CPI increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, core CPI improved, PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The total value of goods trade in the first 10 months increased by 3.6% year - on - year, and in October, exports decreased by 0.8% while imports increased by 1.4% [2]. - **Overseas**: The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The US 10 - month ISM services PMI reached an 8 - month high, but the manufacturing PMI was far below expectations. The ADP employment increase in October was 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the previous value was revised down significantly [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy operations. It maintains a bullish view on the medium - term, advising to hold long - term positions and wait for buying opportunities on market pullbacks [1][3] Group 3: Market Conditions 1. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, TS and TF continued to adjust, T and TL remained volatile. TL slightly rose, while the others slightly declined. TS2512 was at 102.494 (-0.016), TF2512 at 106.015 (-0.03), T2512 at 108.635 (-0.02), and TL2512 at 116.52 (+0.04) [1][4] 2. Position and Trading Volume - TS contract positions decreased by 347 to 83,306, TF decreased by 645 to 179,279, T increased by 2,275 to 290,431, and TL decreased by 885 to 178,880. TS main contract trading volume decreased by 5,311 to 19,329, TF decreased by 2,173 to 50,509, T increased by 933 to 66,835, and TL decreased by 11,856 to 86,971 [4] 3. Basis - TS basis (CTD) was -0.0397 (+0.009), TF basis (CTD) was -0.0523 (+0.0093), T basis (CTD) was -0.0002 (-0.124), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.2246 (+0.2307) [4] Group 4: Important Information - Lan Fo'an stated that not adding implicit debt should be regarded as an "iron - clad discipline". US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend the Supreme Court's oral argument on the legality of Trump's tariffs, emphasizing it as a "national security matter" [2] Group 5: Market Outlook - The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, but the bond market's gains were limited. Long - term bonds basically maintained a volatile pattern. In the short term, there is a lack of trading hotspots. Attention should be paid to the central bank's monthly liquidity release announcement. If there is no bond purchase for the time being, buying opportunities can be grasped during market pullbacks [3] Group 6: Other Data - The funds were loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.75 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 35.78 billion yuan [1]