周二，亚洲股市普遍下跌，主要受到美股从历史高位回调的影响，而美股期货则呈小幅上扬态势。FXGT注意到，东京日经225指数是少数上涨市场，收涨 0.2%，至50,691.39点。 此外，娱乐行业的并购动态同样引发市场关注。Netflix与华纳兄弟的收购交易因监管审查可能受阻，而派拉蒙提出的现金收购要约则给投资者带来新的不确 定性。FXGT提示，板块内并购和重组事件常引发个股短期波动，交易者可通过跟踪市场动态及时调整仓位。 总体来看，亚洲股市在美股走势、政策预期和行业事件的多重影响下呈现震荡格局。FXGT建议投资者关注核心市场指标，结合短期消息与长期趋势，采取 灵活策略，捕捉交易机会的同时做好风险管理。 投资者当前聚焦美联储即将召开的利率决议。市场普遍预期，为应对就业市场疲软，美联储可能下调基准利率。这一预期为全球股市提供了流动性支撑，也 可能影响亚洲市场的风险偏好。FXGT认为，利率政策调整往往对股市估值和交易情绪产生直接作用，短期内可能加剧波动，但也为灵活交易提供机会。 香港恒生指数下跌0.8%，报24,549.54点，台湾加权指数下滑0.5%，韩国KOSPI指数跌0.3%，显示投资者对短期市场波动保持谨慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, but Chairman Jay Powell indicated that another cut in December is not guaranteed, leading to mixed market reactions [2][3][4]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed lowered the fed funds rate target to a range of 3.75% to 4%, marking the first time it has been below 4% since late 2022 [4]. - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet runoff, concluding reductions in Treasury and agency securities on December 1 [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the odds of the Fed maintaining rates steady in December surged to 40% from below 10%, while the odds of a cut decreased to 55% and a 5% chance of a rate hike emerged [4]. - The S&P 500 finished flat, the Nasdaq rose by 0.6%, and the Dow fell by 0.2% after initial declines [6]. - Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 11 basis points to 3.61% and the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 4.07% [6]. Economic Outlook - The Fed described economic growth as "expanding at a moderate pace," a shift from previous language emphasizing moderation, while acknowledging slowed job gains and rising inflation [5]. - Powell noted that there are differing views within the Committee regarding future economic conditions, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the continuous growth of U.S. retail sales for the third consecutive month, indicating a robust performance in the consumer market during the summer of this year [1]. Retail Sales Performance - According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the seasonally adjusted retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, remaining consistent with the growth rate from July. Excluding the automotive sector, retail sales rose by 0.7% [1]. - Among the thirteen retail categories analyzed, nine experienced positive growth, with online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores showing particularly strong performance, attributed to back-to-school demand. In contrast, while automotive sales continued to grow, the pace of growth has slowed [3]. Consumer Spending Trends - Despite facing multiple pressures such as tariffs increasing prices on certain goods, persistent low consumer confidence, and signs of fatigue in the labor market, U.S. consumers have demonstrated a strong willingness to spend. The report notes that although overall wage growth has slowed, many workers' income increases still outpace inflation [5]. - The rise in U.S. stock markets has also provided additional income for certain groups, particularly high-income households, further supporting their spending capacity [5]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, remains a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve. Currently, policymakers are closely observing retail dynamics and employment market conditions to assess the direction of future interest rate adjustments [7]. - There is a general market expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut in the upcoming meeting to mitigate potential further weakness in the labor market, although the full impact of the implemented tariff policies on final prices is yet to be comprehensively evaluated [7].

Central Banks Overview - Global central banks are facing increased uncertainty regarding economic growth and inflation, complicating their decision-making processes, especially for those nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles [1] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly announced a rate cut, marking its first reduction since 2020 [1] Switzerland - The Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to zero, citing declining inflation, appreciation of the Swiss franc, and economic instability due to uncertain U.S. trade policies [2] - There is speculation about whether the Swiss National Bank will move rates into negative territory, but further cuts are deemed more challenging now that rates are at zero [2] Canada - The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 2.75%, indicating potential further cuts if economic downturns occur due to tariff impacts [5] - This marks the second consecutive pause in rate hikes after a significant reduction of 225 basis points over nine months [5] Sweden - The Swedish central bank reduced its benchmark rate from 2.25% to 2%, with indications of possible further easing by year-end due to low price pressures [8] - The bank has cut rates by a total of 200 basis points since May 2024 [8] New Zealand - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged on July 9, following a 25 basis point cut to 3.25% in May to protect the economy [12] - There is an expectation of another 25 basis point cut later this year, with a total of 225 basis points cut during the current cycle [12] Eurozone - The European Central Bank recently cut rates, marking its eighth reduction since mid-2024, while keeping all policy options open for the next meeting [15] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target is achievable, but the key concern for investors is whether inflation will fall below this target, necessitating further easing [15] United States - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate, with potential declines expected by 2025, although Chairman Powell cautioned against over-reliance on this forecast [18] - Powell noted that if not for tariff issues, lower rates might have been considered due to recent low inflation data, with expectations of about two 25 basis point cuts by year-end [18] United Kingdom - The Bank of England unexpectedly kept rates at 4.25%, with market expectations for two more cuts by year-end [21] - Three out of nine rate setters voted for a cut, with speculation that weak labor data could accelerate the rate-cutting pace, although high inflation may hinder this [21] Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing for rapid rate cuts due to weak economic growth and concerns over U.S.-China trade disputes affecting commodity producers [24] - In May, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, with expectations that borrowing costs could approach 3% by year-end [24] Norway - The Norwegian central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking its first cut since 2020, which surprised many analysts [27] - The central bank is known for its cautious approach to rate cuts, with expectations of one to two more cuts this year [27] Japan - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate, aligning with investor expectations, while facing challenges from escalating Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff policies [31] - The bank decided to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade of stimulus measures [31]