（原标题：小摩唱多阿斯麦(ASML.US)：Q3绩后市场焦点将转向2027财年 建议"逢低买入"） 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通近日发布研报，聚焦将于下周公布的阿斯麦(ASML.US)2025年第三季度 (3Q25)业绩，称业绩发布后的机遇大于风险，市场焦点大概率将在业绩发布后转向2027财年(FY27)，并 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级及"首选标的"地位。 核心观点与业绩风险提示 该行写道，自阿斯麦在上次业绩会议中表示"该行仍在为2026年的增长做准备，但目前无法确认增长情 况"以来，其股价已下跌43%。因此，此次业绩面临的两大风险的是：2025年第三季度订单量不及预 期，或2026财年(FY26)业绩指引低于市场预期。 由于本季度初阿斯麦表现出的谨慎态度，该行对2025年第三季度订单的预期低于市场共识。不过，随着 关税阻力缓解，该行认为台积电在本季度后半段的订单量可能表现强劲，这意味着阿斯麦实际订单情况 或好于该行预期，但能否达到市场对订单量的共识预期，仍取决于三星的行动。 三星目前一直在推迟为平泽P4工厂(PyeongtackP4fab)采购设备的订单。该公司手中仍有此前推迟的积压 订单，因此无需下达新订单 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's special integrated circuit business continues to show strong growth, with revenue reaching 1.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.09%, accounting for 48.21% of total revenue, becoming the core growth engine [8] - The smart security chip business faces intensified market competition, resulting in a revenue decline of 5.85% to 1.395 billion yuan [8] - The quartz crystal frequency device business benefits from the demand release in 5G and IoT, with revenue increasing by 35.78% to 151 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin is approximately 55.56%, with the special integrated circuit gross margin at 71.12%, while the smart security chip gross margin slightly decreased to 44.16% [8] - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through technological upgrades and product structure adjustments in strategic areas [8] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.18% [1][8] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted, with net profits expected to be 1.675 billion yuan and 1.926 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [8] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 2.613 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42, 36, and 27 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The company maintains a strong position in the domestic special integrated circuit market, justifying the "Buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit expectations [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 盛美上海 is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence and has confidence in increasing its sales share internationally [1] - 盛美上海 has raised its addressable market in China to $7 billion, based on the assumption of a $40 billion semiconductor equipment market size in China by 2030 [1] - The company reported nearly 40% revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong equipment sales and demand [1] - 盛美上海 maintains its full-year performance guidance unchanged, with contract liabilities reflecting prepayments after product debugging acceptance [1] - The discrepancy in financial reports is attributed to different accounting standards, and the existing capacity at the 临港 plant supports the annual performance guidance, with plans for additional capacity next year [1] Group 2 - 益和源资产, established in January 2014 and officially operational since June 2015, is a professional asset management company primarily focused on secondary stock market investments [2] - The future business scope of 益和源资产 will also include primary market private equity investments and comprehensive asset management services [2] - The company's vision is to become a world-class investment firm that benefits society, with a mission centered on natural principles and societal enrichment [2]