证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 中央经济工作会议与美联储货币政策变化对 A 股的影响 ——A 股投资策略周报（1214） 近期宏观层面迎来关键定调，国内中央经济工作会议直面"国内供强需弱"矛盾， 明确把"促进物价合理回升"作为货币政策重要考量；海外美联储如期降息 25bp 并启用 RMP 工具，旨在维持银行体系充裕准备金水平。往后看，随着下周非农及 通胀数据落地，建议重点关注"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"带来的消费潜力释放， 以及"推动投资止跌回稳"背景下的重大项目相关预期。 定期报告 《市场调整结束了吗？后续如何 应 对 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1018）》 相关报告 《近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股 市场？——A 股投资策略周报 （1207）》 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1123）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 c ...

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry market is expected to reach $199.4 billion in revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of over 25% driven by strong AI demand [1] - In 2026, the market size is projected to grow by an additional 17%, surpassing $230 billion, supported by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure [1] - From 2025 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global wafer foundry market is anticipated to be 14.3%, although risks related to AI investment bubbles and geopolitical tensions remain significant [1] Industry Analysis - AI has become the core driving force for the semiconductor industry amid global economic instability and weak consumer electronics demand [1] - Cloud service providers (CSPs) are expanding AI computing power, which is increasing the demand for AI accelerators and self-developed AI ASICs, thereby driving mid-term growth in the wafer foundry industry [1] - By 2030, industry revenue is expected to double compared to 2025 [1] Advanced Process Competition - In the advanced process competition, TSMC remains the main player in global capacity expansion, with plans to add over 300,000 12-inch wafers per month in the next five years [1] - Samsung Electronics and Intel are expected to have relatively limited capacity increases, allowing TSMC to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030 [1] Mature Process Developments - In the mature process segment, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency policies are expected to lead to an increase of approximately 350,000 12-inch wafers per month from Chinese foundries over the next five years, significantly reshaping the global supply landscape [2] - Despite benefiting from AI opportunities, the wafer foundry industry faces uncertainties due to the long payback period for AI infrastructure investments and geopolitical risks stemming from the US-China tech war [2]