1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The La Nina phenomenon has persisted since the end of 2025, but no significant impacts have been observed so far [1] - The rainfall distribution in the Malay Archipelago remains uneven this week, with most areas in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia receiving more rain, while the southern part of the Malay Peninsula has less rainfall [1] - The soil moisture in the southern Malay Peninsula is still dry, with little chance of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is adequate, and the soil moisture is good across the country. In Indonesia, most areas have seen a recovery in rainfall this week, but the deep - layer soil moisture in Riau, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra continues to decline, and there may be a drought risk in March and April if the rainfall does not improve [1] - In the short term, Sabah may experience a heavy rainfall process. Prolonged rainfall may lead to a short - term decline in production, but overall, the soil moisture is conducive to an increase in annual production [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1 and remained so until the end of January 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.55, and the positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index indicates the persistence of the La Nina phenomenon [1] 3.2 Rainfall Forecast in Producing Areas - The rainfall in Malaysia remains uneven, and Sabah is facing heavy rainfall [4] 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - In March, the soil moisture in most areas of Indonesia has improved, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula is still dry [17] 3.4 Specific Conditions of Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: The rainfall has improved, and the soil moisture is expected to rise [23] - West Kalimantan: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture has improved [29] - Central Kalimantan: The rainfall shows an increasing trend, and the soil moisture is being restored [36] - East Kalimantan: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil moisture continues to recover [44] - Riau: The rainfall has limited improvement, and the soil moisture continues to decline [52] - South Sumatra: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture may improve [59] - North Sumatra: The rainfall is expected to recover, and the soil moisture has not deteriorated further [65] 3.5 Specific Conditions of Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: There is almost no rainfall, and the soil moisture continues to decline [70] - Pahang: The rainfall is still scarce, and the soil moisture has insufficient improvement [77] - Perak: The rainfall slightly recovered in February, which may prevent further drought [84] - Sabah: The accumulated rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - Sarawak: The rainfall is adequate, and the soil moisture continues to rise [96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As of the end of November 2025, the El Niño index was -0.55, and the Southern Oscillation Index was continuously positive, indicating the formation of La Niña. By early 2026, its intensity remained weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia showed no significant deviation, currently having limited impact on palm oil-producing areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the 0 axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains low. There is almost no precipitation in the Malay Peninsula, with sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. The rainfall in Kalimantan Island, Indonesia, is slightly higher, while that in Sumatra Island and its surrounding areas is limited [1] - In terms of soil moisture, the southern part of the Malay Peninsula remains dry, and the drought may spread further in February. By March, the entire Malay Peninsula may experience drought. In Sabah and Sarawak, the rainfall is sufficient, and the soil moisture is good across the region, with no drought concerns. In Indonesia, there has been rainfall in Kalimantan Island and Jambi this week, but the soil moisture in Riau and North Sumatra is decreasing. If the rainfall does not improve in February and March, there may be a risk of drought [2] - With limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters, continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Summary by Region Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and the soil moisture is continuously decreasing [71] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a low level, and the improvement in soil moisture is insufficient [78] - **Perak**: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and the soil moisture is also decreasing [85] - **Sabah**: The cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [91] - **Sarawak**: The rainfall in February is acceptable, and the soil moisture may recover [98] Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall has slightly improved in February, but the soil moisture has not changed significantly [24] - **West Kalimantan**: Rainfall increases at the end of the month, but the soil moisture is average [30] - **Central Kalimantan**: Rainfall increases in February, but the soil moisture is average [37] - **East Kalimantan**: The rainfall is acceptable, and attention should be paid to whether the soil moisture improves [45] - **Riau**: The increase in rainfall is limited, and the soil moisture continues to decline [50] - **South Sumatra**: The increase in rainfall is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the decline in soil moisture [57] - **North Sumatra**: The rainfall is limited, and the soil moisture is decreasing [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, indicating that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited. The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and March. Some regions in Indonesia may also face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March. Short - term lack of rainfall and persistent poor soil humidity in some areas may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Weather Forecast - **El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index**: As of the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon. As of early 2026, its intensity has been weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has not shown significant deviations, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - **Weekly Weather**: This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. The Malay Peninsula has almost no precipitation, with only sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited [1]. - **Soil Humidity**: The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and expand to the entire Malay Peninsula in March. In Sabah and Sarawak, rainfall is sufficient, and soil humidity is good. In Indonesia, although most areas have received rainfall, the amounts are lower than the same period last year. Soil humidity in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra is decreasing, and these regions may face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March [2]. Regional Palm Oil Production Areas Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall shows a downward trend, but soil humidity is good, and there is currently no drought disturbance [25]. - **West Kalimantan**: Rainfall decreases towards the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil humidity [29]. - **Central Kalimantan**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil humidity may decline [37]. - **East Kalimantan**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [42]. - **Riau**: Rainfall increase is insufficient, and soil humidity is decreasing [50]. - **South Sumatra**: Rainfall is rising, and soil humidity is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [57]. - **North Sumatra**: Rainfall was limited in January, and soil humidity is decreasing [63]. Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil humidity may decline [71]. - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil humidity is insufficient [77]. - **Perak**: Rainfall at the beginning of the year is decreasing, and soil humidity is also decreasing [84]. - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90]. - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is adequate, and soil humidity remains at a relatively high level in recent years [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil-producing areas currently, and it may be nearing its end as the Southern Oscillation Index approaches the 0-axis [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has decreased, with sporadic rain in eastern Malaysia and Kalimantan, Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has poor soil moisture, and drought may spread in February. Most areas in Indonesia have sufficient rainfall, but attention should be paid to parts of Central and West Kalimantan. There is a risk of dry soil in other regions of Malaysia, and attention should be paid to local drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Indonesia [1] - There is limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters currently. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Regional Summaries Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall is on a downward trend, but soil moisture is good with no drought disturbances [23] - **Kalimantan Barat**: Rainfall is decreasing at the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil moisture [28] - **Kalimantan Tengah**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil moisture may decline [36] - **Kalimantan Timur**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [43] - **Riau**: Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [51] - **Sumatera Selatan**: Rainfall is increasing, and soil moisture is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [58] - **Sumatera Utara**: Rainfall has returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [64] Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture may decline [70] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [77] - **Perak**: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has declined [84] - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - A La Nina phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, but its intensity is weak and currently has limited impact on Southeast Asia [1] - This week, the rain belt moved counter - clockwise from the southwest to the northeast of the Malay Archipelago with uneven rainfall distribution. The overall rainfall in the Malay Peninsula decreased compared to last week, and the heavy rain at the end of November has basically returned to normal [1] - There is a lack of short - term catastrophic weather disturbances, but attention should be paid to areas with lagging soil moisture, as continuous poor conditions may affect next year's production [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and as of the end of November, the El Nino index was - 0.55, indicating the formation of a La Nina phenomenon [1] Precipitation Forecast - Rainfall in Indonesia has started to decline, and rainfall in Malaysia next week will be greater than this week [3] Soil Moisture - In December, the overall soil moisture in Indonesia has eased, but parts of the Malay Peninsula are relatively dry [9] Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: Rainfall has decreased and is less than the same period last year [21] - West Kalimantan: The heavy rain situation has improved, and soil moisture has increased [29] - Central Kalimantan: The soil is relatively moist, and the rainfall situation is optimistic [33] - East Kalimantan: There is abundant precipitation, and the soil is moist [41] - Riau: Rainfall decreases at the end of the year, and soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [47] - South Sumatra: Soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [53] - North Sumatra: Although there was a flood disaster at the end of November, the rainfall has returned to normal recently [60] Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: Precipitation is relatively low compared to the same period, and soil moisture is lower than the 20 - year average [67] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [72] - Perak: Soil moisture is relatively normal, but overall rainfall is low [78] - Sabah: Although rainfall decreased in December, the soil is relatively moist [85] - Sarawak: Rainfall has decreased, and soil moisture is the same as last year [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since September, the rubber sector has been oscillating within a range, with the bottom rising but struggling to break previous highs, making it difficult to disprove both long and short positions [6]. - In the natural rubber market, the El Niño index was still on an upward trend as of early October, while the Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of stabilization in August. Attention is focused on whether the data early in November will show a clear turning - point [6]. - Thailand's floods in late November have drawn market attention. The weekly average production - weighted rainfall of 39.01mm reached a new high since March 2011, with a short - term impact on supply similar to that driving the sharp rise in late 2016 [6]. - Currently, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant. From April to September, the total apparent consumption of butadiene rubber was 744,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of +21.6%, the highest since January 2021, contributing to the BR - RU spread widening to 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. - After the concentrated cancellation of RU contract warehouse receipts in 2024, the total inventory dropped below 80,000 tons, the lowest since 2012. A warehouse receipt level of 100,000 tons may be a dividing line between bear and bull markets, and the RU contract with domestic WF as the underlying asset has met one of the conditions for a trend reversal [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (Energy Center) has revised the regulations of the 20 - rubber futures, preparing for the introduction of African rubber. The future announced premium or discount will determine whether the NR pricing remains unchanged or moves downward [7]. - Downstream and macro data are positive. Monetary liquidity is abundant, whether observed from the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, or the domestic M1 - M2 gap. Although the domestic stock market has declined, its 20% year - on - year increase is significantly stronger than that of the rubber sector. Tire consumption is relatively stable, with industry power consumption, tire production, operating rates, and inventory mostly on par with last year. It may take time for macro expectations to be reflected in the rubber sector [7]. - The fundamentals are relatively strong [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Supply 3.1.1 Climate - **ENSO (El Niño, Southern Oscillation Composite Index)**: Analyzed the impact of the ENSO index on the RU single - side, including index changes and leading relationships [18][20][22]. - **El Niño**: Studied its influence on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, with corresponding index analyses and leading - time relationships [26][32]. - **Southern Oscillation**: Examined its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, along with index analyses and leading - time relationships [37][41]. 3.1.2 Commodity Valuation - **Crude Oil and Gold**: Analyzed the prices of crude oil and gold and their index - based impacts on the RU single - side, the BR - RU spread, and the smoke - sheet - RU spread [47][49][59]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: Studied the price of Brent crude oil and its index - based impact on the BR - RU spread [54]. - **Gold**: Analyzed the price of gold and its index - based impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [59]. 3.2 Micro Supply 3.2.1 Global Data - **Absolute Price**: Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, previous - month, and previous - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of the ANRPC natural rubber industry and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [69][74]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, its impacts on the RU single - side, the smoke - sheet - RU spread, and the BR - RU spread; also analyzed glue and cup - rubber prices, related spreads, and their impacts on the BR - RU spread; and examined the export of smoked - sheet rubber and its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [80][95][121]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. 3.3 Trade Circulation 3.3.1 Global Data - **Balance Sheets of Six Major Southeast Asian Producing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2 Overseas Data - **International Trade**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Japanese Rubber Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Malaysian Natural Rubber Retail Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Southeast Asian Standard - Rubber Processing Profit**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Overseas Rubber and Plastic Machinery**: Not elaborated in the provided content