南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产区降雨稍有好转但整体有限，关注马来半岛干旱情况 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象已经形成，至26年年初，其强度持续偏弱， 东南亚整体降雨并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。南方涛动指数逐渐向0轴回归，拉尼娜或接近 尾声。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨量依旧偏少。马来半岛几乎无降水，东马零星降雨为主，印尼的卡里曼丹岛 降雨量稍多，苏门答腊岛及周边地区降雨也有限。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，且进入2月后干旱或进一步扩散，3月甚至整个马来半岛 均呈现干旱态势，沙巴和沙捞越地区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰；印尼本周卡里曼 丹岛及占碑地区有降雨，但廖内及北苏门答腊地区土壤湿度递减，如2、3月降雨无改善可能也有干旱风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, indicating that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited. The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and March. Some regions in Indonesia may also face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March. Short - term lack of rainfall and persistent poor soil humidity in some areas may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Weather Forecast - **El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index**: As of the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon. As of early 2026, its intensity has been weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has not shown significant deviations, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - **Weekly Weather**: This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. The Malay Peninsula has almost no precipitation, with only sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited [1]. - **Soil Humidity**: The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and expand to the entire Malay Peninsula in March. In Sabah and Sarawak, rainfall is sufficient, and soil humidity is good. In Indonesia, although most areas have received rainfall, the amounts are lower than the same period last year. Soil humidity in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra is decreasing, and these regions may face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March [2]. Regional Palm Oil Production Areas Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall shows a downward trend, but soil humidity is good, and there is currently no drought disturbance [25]. - **West Kalimantan**: Rainfall decreases towards the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil humidity [29]. - **Central Kalimantan**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil humidity may decline [37]. - **East Kalimantan**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [42]. - **Riau**: Rainfall increase is insufficient, and soil humidity is decreasing [50]. - **South Sumatra**: Rainfall is rising, and soil humidity is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [57]. - **North Sumatra**: Rainfall was limited in January, and soil humidity is decreasing [63]. Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil humidity may decline [71]. - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil humidity is insufficient [77]. - **Perak**: Rainfall at the beginning of the year is decreasing, and soil humidity is also decreasing [84]. - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90]. - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is adequate, and soil humidity remains at a relatively high level in recent years [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil-producing areas currently, and it may be nearing its end as the Southern Oscillation Index approaches the 0-axis [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has decreased, with sporadic rain in eastern Malaysia and Kalimantan, Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has poor soil moisture, and drought may spread in February. Most areas in Indonesia have sufficient rainfall, but attention should be paid to parts of Central and West Kalimantan. There is a risk of dry soil in other regions of Malaysia, and attention should be paid to local drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Indonesia [1] - There is limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters currently. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Regional Summaries Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall is on a downward trend, but soil moisture is good with no drought disturbances [23] - **Kalimantan Barat**: Rainfall is decreasing at the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil moisture [28] - **Kalimantan Tengah**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil moisture may decline [36] - **Kalimantan Timur**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [43] - **Riau**: Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [51] - **Sumatera Selatan**: Rainfall is increasing, and soil moisture is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [58] - **Sumatera Utara**: Rainfall has returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [64] Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture may decline [70] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [77] - **Perak**: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has declined [84] - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - A La Nina phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, but its intensity is weak and currently has limited impact on Southeast Asia [1] - This week, the rain belt moved counter - clockwise from the southwest to the northeast of the Malay Archipelago with uneven rainfall distribution. The overall rainfall in the Malay Peninsula decreased compared to last week, and the heavy rain at the end of November has basically returned to normal [1] - There is a lack of short - term catastrophic weather disturbances, but attention should be paid to areas with lagging soil moisture, as continuous poor conditions may affect next year's production [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and as of the end of November, the El Nino index was - 0.55, indicating the formation of a La Nina phenomenon [1] Precipitation Forecast - Rainfall in Indonesia has started to decline, and rainfall in Malaysia next week will be greater than this week [3] Soil Moisture - In December, the overall soil moisture in Indonesia has eased, but parts of the Malay Peninsula are relatively dry [9] Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: Rainfall has decreased and is less than the same period last year [21] - West Kalimantan: The heavy rain situation has improved, and soil moisture has increased [29] - Central Kalimantan: The soil is relatively moist, and the rainfall situation is optimistic [33] - East Kalimantan: There is abundant precipitation, and the soil is moist [41] - Riau: Rainfall decreases at the end of the year, and soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [47] - South Sumatra: Soil moisture lags behind the same period in previous years [53] - North Sumatra: Although there was a flood disaster at the end of November, the rainfall has returned to normal recently [60] Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: Precipitation is relatively low compared to the same period, and soil moisture is lower than the 20 - year average [67] - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [72] - Perak: Soil moisture is relatively normal, but overall rainfall is low [78] - Sabah: Although rainfall decreased in December, the soil is relatively moist [85] - Sarawak: Rainfall has decreased, and soil moisture is the same as last year [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since September, the rubber sector has been oscillating within a range, with the bottom rising but struggling to break previous highs, making it difficult to disprove both long and short positions [6]. - In the natural rubber market, the El Niño index was still on an upward trend as of early October, while the Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of stabilization in August. Attention is focused on whether the data early in November will show a clear turning - point [6]. - Thailand's floods in late November have drawn market attention. The weekly average production - weighted rainfall of 39.01mm reached a new high since March 2011, with a short - term impact on supply similar to that driving the sharp rise in late 2016 [6]. - Currently, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant. From April to September, the total apparent consumption of butadiene rubber was 744,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of +21.6%, the highest since January 2021, contributing to the BR - RU spread widening to 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. - After the concentrated cancellation of RU contract warehouse receipts in 2024, the total inventory dropped below 80,000 tons, the lowest since 2012. A warehouse receipt level of 100,000 tons may be a dividing line between bear and bull markets, and the RU contract with domestic WF as the underlying asset has met one of the conditions for a trend reversal [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (Energy Center) has revised the regulations of the 20 - rubber futures, preparing for the introduction of African rubber. The future announced premium or discount will determine whether the NR pricing remains unchanged or moves downward [7]. - Downstream and macro data are positive. Monetary liquidity is abundant, whether observed from the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, or the domestic M1 - M2 gap. Although the domestic stock market has declined, its 20% year - on - year increase is significantly stronger than that of the rubber sector. Tire consumption is relatively stable, with industry power consumption, tire production, operating rates, and inventory mostly on par with last year. It may take time for macro expectations to be reflected in the rubber sector [7]. - The fundamentals are relatively strong [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Supply 3.1.1 Climate - **ENSO (El Niño, Southern Oscillation Composite Index)**: Analyzed the impact of the ENSO index on the RU single - side, including index changes and leading relationships [18][20][22]. - **El Niño**: Studied its influence on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, with corresponding index analyses and leading - time relationships [26][32]. - **Southern Oscillation**: Examined its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, along with index analyses and leading - time relationships [37][41]. 3.1.2 Commodity Valuation - **Crude Oil and Gold**: Analyzed the prices of crude oil and gold and their index - based impacts on the RU single - side, the BR - RU spread, and the smoke - sheet - RU spread [47][49][59]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: Studied the price of Brent crude oil and its index - based impact on the BR - RU spread [54]. - **Gold**: Analyzed the price of gold and its index - based impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [59]. 3.2 Micro Supply 3.2.1 Global Data - **Absolute Price**: Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, previous - month, and previous - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of the ANRPC natural rubber industry and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [69][74]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, its impacts on the RU single - side, the smoke - sheet - RU spread, and the BR - RU spread; also analyzed glue and cup - rubber prices, related spreads, and their impacts on the BR - RU spread; and examined the export of smoked - sheet rubber and its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [80][95][121]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. 3.3 Trade Circulation 3.3.1 Global Data - **Balance Sheets of Six Major Southeast Asian Producing Countries**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2 Overseas Data - **International Trade**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Japanese Rubber Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Malaysian Natural Rubber Retail Inventory**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Southeast Asian Standard - Rubber Processing Profit**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **Overseas Rubber and Plastic Machinery**: Not elaborated in the provided content