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姚记科技(002605):中报业绩点评:短期业绩承压,毛利率有所提升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-09-03 12:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, with revenue at 1.438 billion yuan and net profit at 256 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 24.64% and 9.98% respectively [1][8]. - The decline in performance is attributed to short-term fluctuations in the digital marketing and playing card businesses, although the gross margin has improved [1][2]. - The company is focusing on new business opportunities in card collectibles and has made strategic investments in related sectors, indicating potential for future growth [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.438 billion yuan and a net profit of 256 million yuan, down 24.64% and 9.98% year-on-year, respectively, with a diluted EPS of 0.61 yuan [1][8]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 660 million yuan and a net profit of 115 million yuan, reflecting declines of 28.8% and 13.7% year-on-year, respectively [1][8]. Business Segments - The gaming business generated revenue of 481 million yuan, down 6.33% year-on-year, with a stable gross margin of 96.39% [2][15]. - The digital marketing segment saw a significant revenue drop of 40.76% to 520 million yuan, but the gross margin improved to 8.16% [2][15]. - The playing card business reported revenue of 429 million yuan, down 12.72%, with a gross margin of 29.93% [2][15]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 617 million yuan, 669 million yuan, and 701 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding diluted EPS of 1.49 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.69 yuan [3][18]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19, 18, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [3][18].
裕同科技(002831):Q2业绩延续稳健增长 股权激励抬升后续发展确定性
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 08:40
Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by recovering downstream demand and potential for continued expansion in eco-friendly packaging [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.10% growth, net profit growth of 11.42%, and a non-recurring net profit growth of 7.11%, totaling 7.876 billion, 554 million, and 560 million yuan respectively [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue increased by 7.71%, net profit by 12.34%, and non-recurring net profit by 12.09%, reaching 4.177 billion, 313 million, and 313 million yuan respectively [1]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 22.77% and 6.80%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.82 and 0.06 percentage points [3]. - The gross margins for paper packaging products were 24.09%, 22.31%, and 20.38% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.11, +0.48, and -1.20 percentage points [3]. Business Analysis - The company’s revenue from paper packaging, supporting products, and eco-friendly paper-plastic products in H1 2025 was 5.461 billion, 1.297 billion, and 584 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +5.39%, -6.70%, and +6.77% respectively [2]. - The gradual recovery of downstream demand, particularly in the home appliance and liquor sectors, has laid a solid foundation for stable revenue growth [2]. - The company is experiencing a temporary slowdown in eco-friendly packaging growth due to external factors, but expects continued expansion as production capacity is relocated overseas [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company launched a new equity incentive plan worth 2.08 billion yuan, with targets for net profit growth of 10%, 20%, and 30% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to 2024, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4]. - The company has seen a continuous decline in capital expenditures since 2021, supporting a high dividend payout ratio, which has remained above 60% since 2023 [4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts EPS of 1.86, 2.12, and 2.43 yuan for 2025-2027, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved overseas profit margins and the ongoing development of new domestic demands, indicating a clear growth path ahead [4].
裕同科技(002831):公司点评:Q2业绩延续稳健增长,股权激励抬升后续发展确定性
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 07:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.86, 2.12, and 2.43 RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown steady revenue growth in H1 2025, with a revenue increase of 7.10% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 11.42% [2]. - The recovery of downstream demand is expected to support stable revenue growth, particularly in eco-friendly packaging, which is anticipated to continue expanding [3]. - The company has implemented a new equity incentive plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development and a clear path for valuation uplift [5]. Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.876 billion RMB and a net profit of 554 million RMB, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.43 RMB per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.18% [2]. - The revenue from paper-based premium packaging, packaging supporting products, and eco-friendly paper-plastic products was 5.461 billion RMB, 1.297 billion RMB, and 584 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.39%, -6.70%, and 6.77% [3]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 22.77%, with a net margin of 6.80%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.002 billion RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.75% [11]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 1.864 RMB in 2025 to 2.425 RMB in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.10% in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 13.24 [11].
中原期货晨会纪要-20250603
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market in June is expected to have a certain downward pressure in the short term due to disturbing factors, but the bottom is relatively solid, and subsequent market trends will likely be mainly structural. Institutions suggest using dividend assets as the base position and also considering growth and consumption sectors. They are optimistic about banks, the computing power industry chain, card-based collectibles, and innovative drugs [6]. - The Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to continue a stable trend under the continuous efforts of growth-stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need to be further strengthened [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and jointly maintain the consensus [6]. - The EU expressed regret over the US decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which increases economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in May increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and the export container freight rate index rebounded. Experts believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to maintain a stable trend, but policy support is still needed [7]. - The Chinese logistics industry showed strong resilience in the first four months of the year, with the total social logistics volume reaching 115.3 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the estimated cross-regional passenger flow in China reached 6.57 billion person-times, with an average daily flow of 2.19 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [7]. - The "involutionary" competition in the automotive industry has led to a continuous decline in the profit margin of the industry, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year, and may also affect the quality of parts [8]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market has stabilized after a rise. The demand from traders and oil mills is weakening. The spot market has strong bottom support, but the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Oils: The trading volume of oils decreased on May 30th. The palm oil export from Malaysia in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month, and about 17% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The oil market lacks new positive drivers and is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Sugar: On May 30th, the sugar futures main contract showed a narrow and weak trend. The supply in Brazil has improved, and the international raw sugar has rebounded. The domestic spot price is stable, but the increase in imports is suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to maintain a short-term bearish view [11]. - Corn: On May 30th, the corn main contract showed a trend of increasing prices with decreasing positions. The supply in the northern ports is still high, and the demand is affected by wheat substitution. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 2340 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions lightly with support at 2330 yuan [11]. - Hogs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the hog price in China remained stable. The price in the north may weaken due to the recovery of supply, and the price in the south has limited room for decline or increase. The futures main contract is oscillating around 13,500 [11][13]. - Eggs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the egg spot price remained stable. After the festival, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price will be under pressure. The futures market still faces mid - term capacity pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing. The demand for summer fertilizers is approaching the end, but there is still replenishment demand. The price is under short - term pressure but supported by export expectations [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong and the warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged on May 30th. The supply in Shandong is expected to decrease in June, and the market in East China is expected to be firm. The caustic soda 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The price of coking coal auctions is falling, and the price of coke is expected to decline further. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and weaken [13][15]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On May 30th, the spot prices of copper and aluminum decreased. The copper and aluminum inventories are decreasing, but the overseas tariff risk still exists, and the prices are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [15]. - Alumina: On May 30th, the spot price of alumina increased slightly. The production capacity is recovering, and the supply pressure is easing. The domestic import window is gradually opening. The spot price is firm, but there is an expectation of medium - term oversupply. The alumina 2509 contract rebounds from a low level and may fluctuate around 3000 [15]. - Steel: During the holiday, the tariff risk continued, and the market sentiment was affected. The trading volume of steel decreased, and the supply - demand structure may weaken. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and weaken after the festival [15]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys changed little last week, but the prices were weak. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is not strong, and it is recommended not to chase short positions. The cost of silicomanganese is falling, and the supply - demand of alloys is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall trend of the black series [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: On May 30th, the lithium carbonate futures main contract showed an oscillating upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is close to the low - level range this year, and the volatility is increasing. It is recommended to operate within the range of 59,000 - 60,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 30th, the A - share market adjusted, and the trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. The European and American stock markets had mixed performances on Monday. The impact of the previous tariff friction on the market has been digested, and the market may have short - term structural fluctuations. The large - cap stocks may be relatively dominant in the future. The technology sector is worth attention. It is recommended to participate in long positions around the gap on May 7th and consider selling straddle options [19][20][21]. - Options: On May 29th, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options changed. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases [21].