1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is expected to be generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated sideways, with a weekly decline of 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel. US soybean oil prices rose, while US soybean meal prices fell [1]. - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 67.7%, slower than 76.1% in the same period last year but slightly faster than the five - year average. Future weather in Brazil and Argentina is generally favorable for soybean growth and harvest [2]. 3.2 Market Concerns - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle East situation eases, another visit is expected [3]. - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to planting: It will directly increase the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. If all prices increase by 30%, the cost of US soybeans will increase by about 70 cents, and that of Brazilian soybeans will increase by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [3]. - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: As the harvest in Brazil accelerates and precipitation in Argentina improves, the supply pressure of spot soybeans will increase [3]. 3.3 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall view**: There is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - **Short - side logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy may weaken; the harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, resulting in high global spot pressure; the weather in Argentina has improved, and the previously damaged yield per unit area is expected to recover [5]. - **Long - side logic**: If Trump visits China, China is expected to purchase an additional 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year; the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean consumption; rising crude oil prices support costs [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Prices - As of March 27, 2026, the price of the continuous US soybean futures contract fell 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel; the continuous US soybean meal futures contract fell 12.7 dollars per short ton to 315.3 dollars per short ton; the continuous US soybean oil futures contract rose 1.9 cents per pound to 67.41 cents per pound [5]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 3.25 cents per bushel to 1166.25 cents per bushel compared with the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 8.75 cents per bushel to 1240.75 cents per bushel compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 2.62 reais per bag to 103.37 reais per bag compared with the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 0.63 reais per bag to 130.01 reais per bag compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 25, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment rose 6 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton; the price for June shipment rose 4 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton [6]. 3.5 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - In Brazil, precipitation in the next week will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean harvest and transportation [20]. - In Argentina, precipitation in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions in the next two weeks will be good for soybean growth, while precipitation in the central and northern regions will be slightly less. Overall, the weather for the final growth of soybeans is acceptable, and the average yield per unit area is expected to recover to some extent [20]. 3.6 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3442 million tons, compared with 0.9065 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 0.6689 million tons, compared with 0.2982 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 27,000 tons, compared with 6,600 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 0.6649 million tons, compared with 0.5458 million tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 8.5241 million tons have been shipped, and 3.47 million tons remain unshipped [39]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [39]. 3.7 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 25, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 203,200 contracts, a decrease of 10,500 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 117,100 contracts, a decrease of 1,200 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 107,900 contracts, an increase of 24,000 contracts from the previous week [44]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared with the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. If calculated based on the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in butadiene rubber prices is mainly driven by the price transmission of Dubai crude oil, the measures of Japan and South Korea to ensure oil supply and reduce chemical production, and the reduction of the operating rate of refineries [2] - The price of butadiene rubber is mainly determined by the price of its raw material, butadiene, and the price change of SC crude oil is transmitted to butadiene in 1 - 4 weeks [10] - The price of rubber is expected to be weak in the next 2 - 3 months, and it is recommended to adopt a cautious and bearish approach. Buying NR and short - selling RU is a relatively stable strategy, and options can be used to trade BR [41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Global Crude Oil Pricing System - The global crude oil pricing system is centered around Brent, WTI, and Dubai/Oman. About 65% of global physical crude oil trade is priced based on Brent, corresponding to an annual trade volume of about 16.25 billion barrels. WTI is mainly used for crude oil trade settlement in the US and Canada, with an annual trade volume of about 6.25 billion barrels, accounting for 25% of the global total. Dubai/Oman crude oil is the core physical benchmark for medium - sulfur crude oil in Asia, covering about 57% of the total exports from the Middle East to the Asia - Pacific region, with an annual trade volume of about 10 billion barrels [5][6] - The price of Shanghai INE crude oil futures (SC) is mainly determined by the Dubai/Oman spot price, and its current increase is greater than that of Brent and WTI due to its greater sensitivity to the Middle East situation [7] 3.2 Butadiene Price Transmission Chain - The core chain of butadiene price following SC crude oil is: SC crude oil price → naphtha price → ethylene cracking cost → C4 fraction supply → butadiene price → butadiene rubber price. When the SC crude oil price is below $70/barrel, butadiene supply is sufficient; when it exceeds $100/barrel, butadiene supply may shrink [10] 3.3 Production and Trade Pattern of Butadiene 3.3.1 Global Butadiene - The total global butadiene production capacity is about 18.5 million tons/year, with an annual output of about 13 million tons, an operating rate of about 70%, and a total consumption of about 13.34 million tons. The main producing countries are China, the US, South Korea, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Western European countries, and India. The main consuming countries are China, the US, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Southeast Asian countries [11][12][13] 3.3.2 Asian Butadiene - Asia's total production capacity is about 10.8 million tons/year, accounting for about 58% of the global total; output is about 7.8 million tons, accounting for about 60% of the global total; consumption is about 8.2 million tons, accounting for about 61% of the global total. The main producing countries are China, South Korea, Japan, India, Southeast Asian countries, and Middle Eastern countries. The main consuming countries are China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Southeast Asian countries [15][16][17] 3.3.3 Global Butadiene Trade Flow - Global butadiene trade is mainly short - sea trade within regions and supplemented by trans - oceanic trade. The core flow pattern is "North America/Middle East → Asia, Europe → Asia, and mutual supply within Northeast Asia" [17] 3.3.4 Asian Butadiene Trade Flow - Asian butadiene trade is mainly characterized by internal circulation in Northeast Asia, long - distance supply from the Middle East, and absorption by Southeast Asia and India. South Korea is the largest exporter in Asia, and China is the largest consumer and trading hub [21] 3.3.5 China's Butadiene Trade Flow - China's butadiene trade features mainly short - sea imports and supplemented by regional exports. The main import sources are South Korea, Iran, Oman, and Malaysia. The main export destinations are South Korea, Chinese Taipei, and Southeast Asian countries [22][23] 3.4 Butadiene Trade and Transportation - Butadiene needs to be liquefied for transportation. There are three main types of LPG ships for transportation, with different suitable routes. The unit transportation cost varies by route, and the trade arbitrage cost also differs by route. The core influencing factors of butadiene trade include oil prices, ship types and cabin space, geopolitics and insurance, and the characteristics of the goods [26][27][29] 3.5 Impact of Japan and South Korea's Measures and Refinery Operating Rate Reduction - After the change in the Middle East situation, Japan and South Korea have taken measures to ensure oil supply and reduce chemical production, which has intensified the supply contradiction of intermediate chemical products such as butadiene [30] - When the price of Middle East crude oil rises sharply, the cost of refineries gets out of control, the product price transmission lags, and under the dual constraints of policy and the market, refineries in Asia have reduced their operating rates, resulting in a "passive contraction" of butadiene supply [32][35] 3.6 Outlook on Rubber Prices - In the rubber industry chain, the supply of natural rubber is expected to be stable, but the demand outlook is weak. The port inventory has slightly increased and may turn to destocking later. Rubber prices are expected to be weak in the next 2 - 3 months [41]

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The external US soybean futures contracts are weak, with the main contract approaching 1155 cents. The market is more concerned about the Middle East situation. Although short - term oil prices are stable due to reserve releases, there is a basis for continued upward movement in the medium term, and agricultural product prices are affected by oil prices. The US President's visit to China may bring positive news for US soybean exports. Even with a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans may still strengthen under macro - influence [6] - Domestic soybean meal rose this week, with a more significant increase than the external market. Due to changes in the Brazilian soybean export quarantine process, there may be a short - term supply shortage in April. In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For contracts such as bean粕2605, bean粕2607, and bean粕2609, the prices showed a decline, with the decline rates of - 0.42%, - 0.28%, and - 0.33% respectively. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: In a bullish macro - environment, soybean meal may run strongly, but do not chase high entry considering the South American bumper harvest [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report**: Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's production is 180 million tons and exports are 114 million tons, both unchanged from last month. China's imports are 112 million tons, also unchanged. Global production is slightly reduced to 427.18 million tons, and global inventory is slightly reduced to 125.31 million tons [9] - **USDA March Supply and Demand Report for the US**: The sown area, harvested area, yield, production, exports, and ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 are all the same as in February. Imports and crush volume are both increased by 0.5 million bushels [10] - **China's Import Data**: In February 2026, the total import of soybeans was 5.976 million tons, the lowest this year. It increased by 146,000 tons (2.50%) compared with the same period last year and decreased by 595,000 tons compared with the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spread between bean meal contracts, exchange rates, factory - gate prices, and basis of bean meal contracts [14][16][17]