Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while expecting a significant narrowing of the supply gap by 2026 due to increased production efforts by OPEC+ [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has accelerated its oil supply, raising daily production by 630,000 barrels in September to 43.05 million barrels [1] - The average demand for OPEC+ oil is projected at 43.1 million barrels per day, indicating a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day [1] - In the previous month's report, a supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day was anticipated for 2026 if August's production levels were maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, expecting a significant reduction in the supply gap by 2026 as OPEC+ accelerates production increases [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has increased oil supply, with September production rising by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels per day, reflecting the implementation of production quotas [1] - The average daily demand for OPEC+ oil is estimated at approximately 43.1 million barrels, resulting in a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day if September production levels are maintained [1] - Last month's report indicated that maintaining August production levels would lead to a projected supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day by 2026 [1]