投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美委局势骤然升级，是本次油价反弹最直接、最强劲的驱动力。美国特朗普政府对 委内瑞拉的施压力度空前加大，不仅下令"全面彻底封锁"进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，还计划扣 押更多委内瑞拉油轮。据估算，美国已 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while expecting a significant narrowing of the supply gap by 2026 due to increased production efforts by OPEC+ [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has accelerated its oil supply, raising daily production by 630,000 barrels in September to 43.05 million barrels [1] - The average demand for OPEC+ oil is projected at 43.1 million barrels per day, indicating a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day [1] - In the previous month's report, a supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day was anticipated for 2026 if August's production levels were maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, expecting a significant reduction in the supply gap by 2026 as OPEC+ accelerates production increases [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has increased oil supply, with September production rising by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels per day, reflecting the implementation of production quotas [1] - The average daily demand for OPEC+ oil is estimated at approximately 43.1 million barrels, resulting in a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day if September production levels are maintained [1] - Last month's report indicated that maintaining August production levels would lead to a projected supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day by 2026 [1]