Report Overview - The report is titled "40 Key Questions in the Oil, Gas, and Shipping Markets under the Strait Blockade" and is published by the Energy and Chemicals Group of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute on April 1, 2025 [1] 1. Crude Oil: Supply Gap and Price Projection under Strait Blockade 1.1 Supply Loss - The total pre - blockade daily export of various oil products through the Strait of Hormuz was about 20 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for about 15 million barrels. The direct loss of crude oil exports due to the blockade was 14.5 million barrels per day [7] - Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fully utilized their pipeline and port diversion capabilities, there was still a potential crude oil export gap of about 10.5 million barrels per day [8] 1.2 Supply Increase from Strategic Reserves and Sanction Relief - The IEA's 32 member countries released 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. The actual supply increase from the release of reserves was estimated to be up to 1.2 million barrels per day [11] - The combined floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil could provide a supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day within a month [11] 1.3 Production Shutdown - By the fourth week of the US - Iran conflict, the estimated reduction in Middle - Eastern crude oil production was about 10 million barrels per day, resulting in an 8 - million - barrel - per - day decline in March [12] 1.4 Refining Capacity Decline - As of the end of March, the global refining capacity decline was about 4.6 million barrels per day. If the blockade continued throughout April, the loss could exceed 7 million barrels per day [14] 1.5 Price Projection - Based on the Brent average price of $71 per barrel in February 2026, the report estimated the price increase under different blockade durations. For example, if the blockade lasted for 4 weeks, the Brent price could reach $78 (conservative), $82 (neutral), and $85 (optimistic) [17] 1.6 Arbitrage and Pricing - The core of the price difference between SC and international crude oil is freight, followed by product quality and regional price premiums. After the blockade, Brent and SC have decoupled from traditional Middle - Eastern Dubai/Oman medium - sour crude [18] - In the short - term, the monthly spread of crude oil was at a high level. The report recommended considering long positions in distant - month contracts such as 06, 07, and 08 [21] 1.7 Short - Selling Strategy - The report suggested short - selling Brent dec26 or the Brent main contract and holding the position for 6 - 12 months until the end of the war [22] 2. Gasoline and Diesel: Supply Evolution in the East and West under Geopolitical Impact 2.1 Gasoline Supply in Asia - Pacific before the Conflict - Asia - Pacific was the main area for global refining capacity growth. The increase in refining capacity and the change in raw material structure led to a relatively loose gasoline supply in the region [27] 2.2 Impact on Gasoline Production and Blending in Asia - Pacific after the Conflict - The interruption of Middle - Eastern crude oil exports led to a decline in refinery operations in China and potentially South Korea, resulting in a shortage of basic gasoline components [31] - The rise in crude oil and naphtha prices and export difficulties increased the cost of blending components, pushing up the price of gasoline [31] 2.3 Future Evolution of European Refineries and Gasoline Production - European refineries mainly processed light crude oil from the US and West Africa. The decline in Middle - Eastern crude oil exports might further shift them towards light crude [36] - European gasoline production was expected to bottom out and rebound after April, depending on the refinery processing volume [36] 2.4 Impact of US Production on Western Hemisphere Gasoline Supply and Demand - US refineries were less likely to reduce diesel production due to the high global diesel price and supply shortages in other regions. This might lead to a loss of about 160,000 barrels per day of gasoline production [40] 2.5 Global Diesel Price and Spread Trends - The decline in Middle - Eastern diesel exports led to a shortage of global diesel resources, with a sharp increase in spot and paper prices and a rapid decline in inventory [45] 2.6 Europe as the Focus of the Global Diesel Market - Europe had a weak diesel supply chain, with insufficient domestic production capacity and high external supply dependence, mainly on the Middle East, the US, and India [50] 2.7 US as a Supplier in the Western Hemisphere Diesel Market - The US had a potential diesel production increase of about 480,000 barrels per day, but it might not be able to fill the Middle - Eastern gap during the US gasoline consumption peak [53] 2.8 Asia - Pacific Refining Powers Filling the Middle - Eastern Diesel Gap - China, South Korea, and India were the main diesel suppliers in the Asia - Pacific market. However, China might reduce exports, South Korea's diesel yield might be compressed, and India's exports might have an upper limit [60] 3. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Micro - Market Structure under Geopolitical Issues 3.1 Iran's Position and Trade Flow in the Global Fuel Oil Market - Iran was the second - largest fuel oil exporter in the Middle East, with an annual export volume of about 15 - 18 million tons, mainly high - sulfur fuel oil [66] 3.2 Impact on Production and Export of Other Countries in the Strait - The production and export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were affected. Saudi Arabia's exports were threatened, Iraq's export capacity was restricted, and the UAE's transshipment role in Fujairah was limited [72] 3.3 Russia and Latin America Filling the Middle - Eastern Supply Gap - Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports had an upward trend, but its production was limited by drone attacks and sanctions. Latin America's exports were mostly directed to the US, and high freight rates restricted its ability to supply the Asia - Pacific [77] 3.4 Asia - Pacific Low - Sulfur Market Gap - The Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market faced a supply shortage, with losses from Kuwait, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, European low - sulfur prices might provide some supply through arbitrage [78][81] 3.5 Factors Determining Domestic Low - Sulfur Production - Domestic low - sulfur production depended on the processing volume of major refineries and the yield of refined oil products. As the peak consumption season for gasoline and diesel approached, the growth of low - sulfur production might be limited [85] 3.6 Potential Expansion of Fuel Oil Demand in Shipping and Power Generation - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East might lead to increased fuel consumption in shipping due to longer voyages and higher speeds. In the power generation sector, high - sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East was expected to increase seasonally [89][93] 4. LNG: Global LNG Balance under Supply Risk 4.1 Duration of Middle - Eastern LNG Supply Interruption - Qatar's supply interruption was expected to last at least until May, and Train 4&6's production reduction would continue until 2027. The supply interruption of Qatar and the UAE for one month would result in a reduction of about 6.9 million tons of LNG supply [103] 4.2 Supply - Side Balance Sheet Changes - In 2026, the global LNG production capacity growth rate was expected to decrease due to Qatar's facility losses. In the long - term, the global production capacity growth trend remained [106] 4.3 Regions with Significant Import Source Impact - Qatar's exports were mainly directed to Asia, especially China, India, South Korea, and Pakistan. South Asian countries were more dependent on Middle - Eastern imports [109] 4.4 Acceptance of High Prices by Asia - Pacific Demand Countries - Demand countries showed differentiation. South Asia and Southeast Asia had high dependence on Qatar's imports and weak infrastructure, while Northeast Asia had low short - term acceptance of high - price spot LNG [113] 4.5 Seasonal Gap after Demand Feedback - The estimated actual demand gap caused by one - month and two - month Middle - Eastern supply interruptions was 5.3 million tons and 10.6 million tons respectively. The demand gap might turn the annual balance sheet from loose to tight in 3 - 6 months [116] 4.6 Impact of European Stockpiling Demand on Annual Supply - Demand Balance - In the short - term, Europe's short - term stockpiling urgency decreased. In winter, the stockpiling demand would increase, and there was a seasonal gap during the peak summer electricity demand [119][121] 5. LPG: LPG Gap Calculation under Supply Risk 5.1 Middle - Eastern LPG Supply Reduction - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in Middle - Eastern LPG exports. The supply gaps of C3 and C4 were about 2 million and 1.8 million tons per month respectively [126] 5.2 US as an Alternative Supplier - The US had limited ability to increase LPG exports in the short - term due to full - capacity operation at ports, equipment breakdowns, and a mismatch in product ratios [132] 5.3 LPG Supply - Demand Gap - The chemical demand for LPG was elastic, while the combustion demand was rigid. Even considering the US's increased exports and Iran's normal exports, there was still a combustion - end gap of 400,000 - 600,000 tons per month [135] 6. Shipping: Main Shipping Market Dynamics under Middle - Eastern Geopolitical Conflicts 6.1 Strait of Hormuz Passage Tracking Indicators - In late March, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly lower than normal, and most of the passages were outbound [138][140] 6.2 Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates of various types of ships, including crude tankers, product tankers, LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and container ships, showed different trends. Generally, the freight rates were affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [146][151][158] 6.3 Ship Deployment Ratios - The east - west deployment ratio of oil tankers in the Suez Canal and the Atlantic - Pacific deployment ratio of bulk carriers changed due to the Middle - Eastern situation [167][169] 6.4 Impact on the Shipping Insurance Market - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a significant increase in war - risk insurance rates. Insurance has become a key constraint on shipping [173][174] 6.5 Container Liner Companies' Operational Adjustments - Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping adjusted their routes and introduced multimodal transport solutions to deal with the Middle - Eastern logistics challenges [176][177][178] 6.6 Mandeb Strait Passage Status - In 2025, the passage volume of different ship types through the Mandeb Strait declined compared to 2024. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, the number of crude tankers passing through the Mandeb Strait increased [179]

Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran geopolitical conflict on major domestic futures varieties, covering aspects such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply gap of crude oil is relatively clear, with an upward - trending and volatile market. For downstream chemical products, most commodity valuations have reached relatively high levels, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Crude oil prices also affect the price of the oil and fat sector [3]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report's overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views by Category Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: With the continuous blockade of the Strait, the supply gap is clear, and the trend is upward with fluctuations [8]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand contradictions in the near - term have been resolved by previous inventories and near - end supplies, and the market has entered a short - term adjustment phase [8]. - **P - Xylene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, and Bottle Chips**: Short - term valuations are in place, and chasing high prices is not advisable [8]. - **Polypropylene**: Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. The supply of crude oil and propane is reduced due to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply and provided support for near - end prices [8]. - **Polyethylene**: The continuous strength of crude oil prices provides cost support. The supply of upstream cracking raw materials may be severely tightened, and domestic cracking operations are reducing production, leading to a stronger near - end of derivatives [8]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The spot price of Maersk increased by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April (a 10% increase in the central price), and the valuation center of 2604 has shifted to 2000 - 2200 points. The far - month is priced according to seasonality [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. Affected by the Middle East situation, overseas caustic soda production has been passively reduced, and the export price has increased significantly. However, the futures price has a large premium, and overseas device dynamics and Chinese export orders need to be continuously monitored [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Affected by the Iran situation, the production of chlor - alkali in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the domestic production capacity of ethylene - based PVC has also decreased. The future Asian ethylene - based production capacity faces production reduction pressure. The market focus is on the impact duration of the Middle East situation [8]. - **LPG**: The supply problem in the Middle East remains unresolved, and there is support at the lower end. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. - **Propylene**: The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH devices are expected to shut down centrally. PL is expected to rise further due to cost increase and supply tightening. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The outer - market US soybeans fluctuate greatly due to events such as China - US economic and trade consultations and the postponement of Trump's visit to China. The domestic soybean meal market sentiment is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further progress of China - US trade events [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The trading of palm oil's energy attribute continues. The long - term high price of crude oil is likely to lead to a trend - like increase in the palm oil market after fundamental resonance [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the energy attribute in the oil and fat sector continues. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the Iran event on China - US economic and trade consultations. The fluctuation of US soybeans may become a resistance for soybean oil to follow the upward trend [9]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the near - term has increased energy costs and disrupted spot procurement, driving the price rebound of near - end iron ore contracts. The long - term impact is small. Strategies include focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread of iron ore and selling call options on the 09 contract with an exercise price of 850 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, while expecting a significant narrowing of the supply gap by 2026 due to increased production efforts by OPEC+ [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has accelerated its oil supply, raising daily production by 630,000 barrels in September to 43.05 million barrels [1] - The average demand for OPEC+ oil is projected at 43.1 million barrels per day, indicating a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day [1] - In the previous month's report, a supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day was anticipated for 2026 if August's production levels were maintained [1]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, expecting a significant reduction in the supply gap by 2026 as OPEC+ accelerates production increases [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Forecast - OPEC+ has increased oil supply, with September production rising by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels per day, reflecting the implementation of production quotas [1] - The average daily demand for OPEC+ oil is estimated at approximately 43.1 million barrels, resulting in a supply gap of only 50,000 barrels per day if September production levels are maintained [1] - Last month's report indicated that maintaining August production levels would lead to a projected supply gap of 700,000 barrels per day by 2026 [1]