逆周期布局
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盛世古玩乱世黄金,这句老话99%的人理解错了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-23 11:07
大量的 as been and the a 18 12 proposed the state c 5 1911-11-11 t 2017 002000000000000000 08 8 cked sio e 12 Team the driver p "盛世古玩,乱世黄金。"这句在坊间流传了数百年的老话,几乎成了中国人投资理财的红宝书。在大多数人的认知里,这八个字就是金科玉律,意思浅显 易懂:当世道太平、国泰民安时,应该去买古玩字画,附庸风雅又能升值;而一旦世道动荡、兵荒马乱,就得赶紧把手里的东西换成黄金,因为那才是硬 通货,是保命的根本。这种理解听起来似乎天衣无缝,符合直觉,更符合人趋利避害的本能。然而,如果仅仅停留在这一层面的理解,那么很遗憾,你可 能正是那99%被常识误导的人。在真正的资本博弈与财富积累的棋局中,这种线性的思维模式不仅无法让你实现阶层跨越,甚至可能让你在时代的洪流中 沦为高位接盘的"韭菜"。 真正能在变动的大周期中赚到大钱的人,往往不是按常识行事,而是按规律行事。规律与常识最大的区别在于:常识是感性主导的,往往滞后于市场;而 规律是价格逻辑主导的,往往需要逆向而行。巴菲特那句被奉为圭臬的名 ...
杨振宁:如何用“圆”式经济学,撬动万亿科技未来?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 13:59
Core Insights - The article presents Yang Zhenning as a strategic investor in human civilization, emphasizing his long-term investment in knowledge, culture, and belief rather than financial assets [3][22]. - Yang's life choices reflect the principles of value investing and long-termism, making him a model for investors [3][26]. Group 1: Early Life and Education - Yang Zhenning's upbringing in Tsinghua University provided him with a strong educational foundation, which can be seen as an investment in high-quality educational assets [5][6]. - His ability to adapt and thrive during turbulent times, such as completing his studies during wartime, showcases his strategic foresight [7]. Group 2: Global Integration and Scientific Contributions - Yang's decision to study in the U.S. in 1945 marked a significant step in his career, akin to an "overseas IPO," allowing him to engage with leading physicists [8][9]. - He made groundbreaking contributions to physics, including the Yang-Mills theory, which laid the groundwork for particle physics, demonstrating the concept of delayed returns on investment in knowledge [10][12]. Group 3: Return to China and Strategic Investments - Yang's return to China in 1971 was not merely a visit but a strategic move to assess and invest in China's scientific potential [19]. - His various initiatives, such as advocating for basic research and establishing educational networks, reflect a long-term vision for China's scientific development [19][20]. Group 4: Legacy and Influence - Yang Zhenning's approach to wealth and influence emphasizes the importance of connecting people and knowledge, rather than merely accumulating financial assets [22][25]. - His actions have significantly raised the profile of Chinese science on the global stage, demonstrating the impact of strategic investments in human capital [25]. Group 5: Lessons for the Future - The article suggests that individuals can adopt a long-term investment mindset, focusing on substance over speed, which is increasingly relevant in today's fast-paced environment [26][28]. - Yang's principles of patience, collective progress, and a focus on enduring value serve as a guide for future generations [26].
逆向者的奖赏:华夏基金三季度霸榜背后的长期主义哲学
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 07:50
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the success of "Hua Xia Fund" in navigating the market downturn through a strategy of "counter-cyclical layout," which has led to significant returns for its funds in the recent market rebound [3][5][21] Fund Performance - In Q3 2023, all 165 active equity funds from public fund companies achieved positive returns, with an average return of 25.93% [3] - Over the past three years, more than 90% of companies reported positive returns, with an average return rate of 21.51% [3] - Hua Xia Fund's proactive approach resulted in impressive performance, with its newly launched index funds averaging a return of 45% since inception, and a median return of 50% [8][11] Strategic Initiatives - Hua Xia Fund launched 48 new funds in 2024, with 35 being index funds focused on the equity market, demonstrating a commitment to counter-cyclical investment during a market downturn [6][11] - The fund's strategy involved building a comprehensive asset management framework, allowing for timely adjustments based on market trends and sector performance [11] Sector-Specific Success - The article highlights specific funds that performed exceptionally well, such as the "Hua Xia Digital Industry Mixed A" fund, which achieved a return of 105% this year [16][17] - In the ETF sector, notable performers included the "Hang Seng Medical ETF" with a 101% return and the "Gold Stock ETF" with an 86% return [12][13] Overall Market Impact - Hua Xia Fund's active equity funds outperformed the market, with 102 funds beating the benchmark index, and 19 funds achieving over 50% returns this year [15] - The fund's "solid + " series also showed strong performance, with 87% of products reaching new net asset value highs in Q3 [18][19]
化工领域再下重注!伯克希尔哈撒韦拟百亿美元收购西方石油化工部门
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-10-01 03:23
Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, is in advanced talks to acquire Occidental Petroleum's chemical subsidiary OxyChem for approximately $10 billion, marking the largest acquisition since the $13.7 billion purchase of Alleghany Corp. in 2022 [1] - Occidental Petroleum's decision to sell OxyChem is driven by the need to alleviate its debt burden, which has reached $23.34 billion as of June 2025, following aggressive expansions through acquisitions [3] - OxyChem generated $2.42 billion in revenue in the first two quarters of 2025, focusing on chemical products for healthcare, food safety, and construction, but its capital-intensive nature conflicts with Occidental's strategic focus on energy [3] Group 2 - The acquisition aligns with Buffett's investment philosophy of "buying quality assets at low prices" and continues Berkshire's strategy in the chemical sector, following a previous $10 billion acquisition of Lubrizol in 2011 [4] - OxyChem's applications complement Berkshire's other businesses, and the acquisition could deepen the collaboration between Berkshire and Occidental, which currently holds 28.2% of Occidental's shares valued at over $11 billion [4] - The deal signifies a shift in Berkshire's strategy from a conservative approach to a more aggressive stance in energy and industrial sectors, as indicated by recent investments and acquisitions [4] Group 3 - Following the announcement, Occidental's stock price fell by 1.81% to $47.25 but showed a slight recovery in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious optimism in the market regarding the deal [5] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves are at a historical peak of $344 billion, providing ample resources for the $10 billion transaction [5] - Buffett's recent activities, including a $1.6 billion investment in UnitedHealth Group and increased stakes in Japanese trading companies, are interpreted as a final push before his expected retirement as CEO by the end of 2025 [5]
精品化路线满足客户所需 汇安基金有的放矢持续优化产品矩阵
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-29 02:50
Core Insights - The public fund market in China has reached a record high of 35.08 trillion yuan in net asset value as of July 2025, with a total of 13,014 fund products available, indicating a competitive landscape with challenges such as product design mismatches and homogenization [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced an action plan for the high-quality development of public funds, emphasizing a shift from scale to investor returns, focusing on the best interests of investors throughout the fund management process [1] - Hui'an Fund has adopted a customer-centric approach since its inception, aiming to create value for clients while achieving sustainable growth through a diverse range of products tailored to different risk profiles and investment needs [2] Group 1 - The public fund industry is facing increasing competition and challenges, necessitating a focus on product differentiation and alignment with investor needs [1][2] - Hui'an Fund manages 71 public fund products across various risk-return profiles, including pure debt, mixed equity, and index funds, to cater to diverse client requirements [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of suitable product offerings, aligning its product development with its strengths and market conditions, rather than following industry trends blindly [3] Group 2 - Hui'an Fund is committed to making difficult yet correct decisions, such as engaging in counter-cyclical investment strategies during market downturns, which reflects its dedication to long-term client interests [4] - The company has a history of launching new equity investment products during market lows, demonstrating its proactive approach to investment opportunities [4] - Looking ahead, Hui'an Fund aims to enhance product innovation and supply, ensuring that it meets client needs and contributes to the high-quality development of the public fund industry [5]
保险业上半年保障水平提升
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-25 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China has shown resilience and progress in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in asset utilization and premium income, while maintaining a stable solvency capacity [1][10]. Group 1: Asset and Premium Growth - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total investment balance of insurance companies exceeded 36 trillion yuan, reaching 36.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [2]. - The original insurance premium income for the first half of 2025 was 3.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.1% compared to 2024, indicating a recovery in the life insurance sector [2]. - The number of new insurance policies issued in the first half of 2025 reached 524 billion, marking an 11.1% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Bonds remain the primary investment for insurance funds, with a bond investment balance of 17.87 trillion yuan as of Q2 2025, where life insurance companies hold 16.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.9% of their total investments [3]. - Stock investments have also gained traction, with insurance companies' stock investments surpassing 3 trillion yuan, showing a quarterly increase of 8.9% [3]. - The shift towards equity investments is seen as a long-term strategic choice, driven by the need for higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4]. Group 3: Claims and Coverage - Claims and benefits paid by insurance companies reached 1.3 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 9% increase, indicating a deepening of the insurance protection function [5]. - Health insurance and long-term care insurance have emerged as the main contributors to claims growth, driven by an aging population and rising healthcare costs [6]. - The insurance industry has demonstrated its commitment to social responsibility through rapid response to claims during natural disasters, showcasing its role in public welfare [7]. Group 4: Solvency and Regulatory Environment - The overall solvency adequacy ratio for the insurance industry was 204.5% at the end of Q2 2025, significantly above regulatory requirements [8]. - Among 60 life insurance companies, six maintained an AAA rating, with solvency ratios exceeding 200%, indicating strong capital strength and risk management capabilities [8]. - The regulatory environment remains challenging, with some smaller companies facing solvency pressures, necessitating improvements in capital management and risk strategies [10].
13家药企被机构“围猎” 阿尔茨海默病新药藏着怎样的投资密码?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 02:17
Group 1 - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly in Alzheimer's disease treatments, with Eli Lilly's drug showing a three-year delay in cognitive decline, prompting increased interest from domestic companies and investors [1] - Domestic companies such as Fosun Pharma and Kangzheng Pharmaceutical are pursuing innovative treatments, including small molecule oral drugs and acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, to fill the market gap in China, which has over 13 million Alzheimer's patients [1] - Thirteen companies have been heavily researched by institutions, with notable advancements in drug candidates like Maiwei Biotech's Nectin-4 ADC for urothelial carcinoma and Baiji Shenzhou's Zebutine expanding into international markets [1] Group 2 - Recent national policies, including the National Medical Insurance Bureau's instant settlement, have reduced the cash flow pressure on pharmaceutical companies, shortening the payment cycle from three months to 20 days [2] - Companies like Hengrui Medicine and Rongchang Biotech are making significant strides in international markets, with Hengrui's GLP-1 dual-target drug being licensed for $6 billion and Rongchang's ADC drug outperforming Merck [2] - Long-term investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong technological platforms and track clinical progress, particularly phase III data, as these factors are crucial for drug approval and market success [2]
大出手!全球资管巨头“抄底”中国房地产
news flash· 2025-07-25 08:47
Core Viewpoint - A global asset management giant, Schroders Capital, has announced a strategic partnership with Zhejiang-based company Xizi International to establish a private equity real estate investment fund with a total scale of approximately 3 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Partnership Details - The partnership will focus on high-quality office buildings and consumer infrastructure investments in core cities of the Yangtze River Delta, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing [1] - The collaboration aims to identify and develop core stable and high-quality projects with potential for renovation and upgrading [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Schroders Capital's real estate investment head in China, Huang Jingwei, indicated that this cooperation is expected to strengthen the company's leading position in the Chinese market and open new channels for institutional investors to access high-quality real estate investments [1] - Xizi International brings strong financial capabilities and extensive experience in real estate investment and development, along with a wide range of market resources and property renovation capabilities to support the strategic partnership [1]
跨越速运:逆势四连增背后的三次“反常识”判断
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-04 16:16
Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing a collective contraction, yet KuaYue Express has maintained an impressive growth rate of over 25% for four consecutive years, demonstrating its resilience against industry trends [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Innovation - KuaYue Express has consistently ranked among the top three in the logistics industry, as evidenced by its position in the "2025 China LTL Top 30" list [2]. - The company has undergone three significant strategic shifts under the leadership of Chairman Hu Haijian, focusing on long-termism, technological innovation, and global ecological layout [2][4]. - In 2015, Hu Haijian made a bold decision to invest billions in developing a proprietary logistics intelligence system, known as the "Sword System," which has since evolved into a "logistics brain" capable of real-time data analysis and intelligent scheduling [4][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Despite a price war in the logistics industry, KuaYue Express has shifted its resources from competing on price to enhancing service quality, particularly in air transport and high-end services [6][9]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major airlines, controlling 80% of the air cargo resources in key economic regions, and has developed an "aircraft smart scheduling system" for efficient cargo management [9][10]. - KuaYue Express has successfully increased its high-end customer base and profitability during industry downturns, showcasing its ability to "overtake in a bend" [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Leadership - KuaYue Express has set new service standards in the logistics industry, having introduced the "same-day delivery within 8 hours" service, which has since evolved to "6 hours," pushing competitors to enhance their service offerings [11][13]. - The company's management philosophy emphasizes customer-centricity, resulting in low employee turnover and high employee satisfaction, with a talent retention rate of less than 1% for key positions [14][16]. - Hu Haijian's approach to sharing success with employees has fostered a culture of loyalty and high performance, contributing to the company's sustained growth in a challenging market environment [16][17].
发起式基金:在“生死劫”与“新机遇”之间的市场博弈
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-26 03:44
Core Viewpoint - The market for initiated funds is experiencing a stark contrast, with increasing liquidation pressures on some funds while new initiated funds continue to be launched by public institutions [1][2] Group 1: Liquidation Pressure - A significant number of initiated funds are facing severe liquidation crises, with 35 out of 125 funds liquidated this year being initiated funds, and 6 of these having a scale of less than 10 million yuan at the time of liquidation [2] - Initiated funds must reach a minimum scale of 200 million yuan after three years to avoid automatic termination of their contracts, which has led to many funds facing existential threats [2][6] - Some initiated funds, despite having positive net values, are still forced to liquidate due to insufficient scale, highlighting the strict exit mechanisms in place [2][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The initiated funds are often focused on niche sectors such as Hong Kong Stock Connect and quantitative strategies, but face challenges in attracting attention and capital due to poor marketing and investor education [3][7] - The high operational costs associated with smaller fund sizes hinder the ability to attract new investments, leading to a reliance on institutional funds that can influence investment strategies [3][7] Group 3: New Opportunities - Despite the liquidation pressures, the issuance of initiated funds remains robust, with 146 new funds launched this year, totaling 32.481 billion yuan, which is an increase from the previous year's 5.34% to 6.45% of total public fund issuance [4] - The flexibility of initiated funds allows public institutions to launch products even in a sluggish market, providing opportunities for counter-cyclical investments [4][5] Group 4: Growth Challenges - The simultaneous occurrence of liquidation and issuance reflects the unique "growth dilemma" faced by initiated funds, where low entry barriers lead to smaller fund sizes, while strict exit mechanisms create significant scale pressures [6][7] - The competitive landscape and channel pressures further exacerbate the challenges for initiated funds, as they struggle to gain traction in a market saturated with nearly 13,000 funds [7]