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瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, it is expected that supply will be abundant, demand will stabilize, and prices will remain under pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to take long positions on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term, while paying attention to operational risks [2]. - For glass, it is advisable to wait for the bottoming signal before making a move, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the domestic market follows the interest - rate cut passively, the market may see growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,281 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), glass main contract closing price is 1,181 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan). Soda ash main contract position is 1,449,657 lots (down 20,863 lots), glass main contract position is 1,280,165 lots (down 7,519 lots) [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 273,172 (up 49,214), glass top 20 net position is - 154,993 (up 8,546). Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,759 tons (down 440 tons), glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2,088 tons (down 5 tons) [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 119 (unchanged), glass September - January contract spread is - 186 (down 24). Soda ash basis is - 75 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), glass basis is - 89 (up 7) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,203 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged). East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,096 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), Central China glass sheets are 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.22% (up 3.75 percentage points), float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01% (up 0.33 percentage points) [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), glass in - production production lines are 225 (up 1). Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8231 million tons (up 0.1 million tons), glass enterprise inventory is 63,050,000 weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 35,206 million square meters (up 4,841.68 million square meters), cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 25,034 million square meters (up 2,467.39 million square meters) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant resumed production with stable prices; Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant reduced production; Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400,000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation to about 70% capacity; Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 70% capacity; Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced operation; Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600,000 - ton/year soda ash plant operated at about 80% capacity; Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's plant was under maintenance with a delayed start - up; Sichuan - Chongqing soda ash market was stable, and supply was expected to increase with plant resumption [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand will stabilize, prices will be under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. The short - term fundamental suppression still exists, and attention should be paid to capacity maintenance [2]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both at a low level. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The growth of the automobile industry has weakened, and the probability of interest - rate cut is rising [2].
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to be ample, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2] - The supply of glass remains at a low level, demand from the real estate sector is weak, but there is a trend of inventory reduction and a potential restocking market. It is recommended to buy glass futures contracts on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1271 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1137 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 134 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the soda ash main contract is 1,428,510 lots, down 16,149 lots; the open interest of the glass main contract is 1,322,189 lots, up 53,024 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders is - 300,736 lots, up 37,393 lots; the net position of the top 20 glass traders is - 213,875 lots, down 16,105 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash are 5,432 tons, down 265 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass are 2,131 tons, down 210 tons [2] - The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is - 117 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is - 194 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - The basis of soda ash is - 91 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of glass is - 77 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1,205 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price of Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of East China light soda ash is 1,255 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,060 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points [2] - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 224, up 1 [2] - The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.04 million weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 35.206 million square meters, up 4.84168 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 25.034 million square meters, up 2.46739 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit was held in Tianjin, and all foreign leaders arrived in Tianjin [2] - Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [2] - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US revocation of the authorizations of Samsung and other enterprises in China and will take necessary measures [2] - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2] - From January to July, the total operating income of state - owned and state - holding enterprises in China was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [2]
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term main contract of soda ash, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, the supply remains at the bottom, and the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. However, there is an expectation of restocking as the peak season approaches. If the price drops to around 1100 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity when the 20 - day interest - rate cut expectation may be ignited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1212 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract open interest is 1398920 lots, down 10970 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1115020 lots, up 19010 lots. The net positions of the top 20 holders for soda ash is - 361252, up 3587; for glass is - 264184, up 40727 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 10192 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2438 tons, down 805 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts for soda ash is - 114 yuan, down 12 yuan; for glass is - 182 yuan, down 17 yuan. The basis of soda ash is - 115 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of glass is - 128 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223, unchanged. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The domestic soda ash market showed a general trend with a lukewarm trading atmosphere. The supply increased as some plants resumed normal operation. The downstream demand was average, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices. The short - term soda ash market is expected to be lightly stable and volatile [2]. - The spot price of float glass was 1153 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regions had different market conditions, with some prices falling and some remaining stable [2]. Macro - aspect - In July, the housing prices in 70 cities were released. The prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [2].
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 08:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.73% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures rose 1.25% and showed an overall weakening trend. Looking ahead, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, and with the approaching peak season and a possible interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - The recommended trading strategy is to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1340 - 1450 with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1480, and operate the FG2601 in the range of 1140 - 1230 with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures first fell and then rose, affected by rumors of production restrictions in Qinghai and lithium carbonate market fluctuations. Glass futures showed an overall weakening trend, with a decline after the contract switch and a subsequent rebound due to real - estate rumors [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, domestic production and operating rates increased this week, and although profits declined and future production is expected to fall, the short - term supply is still abundant. The demand from the glass industry is weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased. For glass, the supply is at a low level, real - estate demand is poor, and downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly. With an approaching interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1340 - 1450 range with a stop - loss of 1280 - 1480, and operate FG2601 in the 1140 - 1230 range with a stop - loss of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices closed down [9]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened, but the recovery was not significant. As of August 14, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Shahe market was 1285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. Glass futures weakened during the contract transfer, and the basis fluctuated greatly and was not currently reliable. As of August 14, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - panel glass in the Shahe market was 1088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 132 yuan/ton [14][18][21]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between soda ash and glass weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 180 yuan/ton [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, but due to decreased profits, the operating rate is expected to decline next week. As of August 14, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 87.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%, and the weekly production was 76.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.23% [26][31]. - **Enterprise Profits**: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises declined, mainly due to falling spot prices and rising costs. As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the combined - soda process was 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 171.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97%; using coal - gas as fuel was 92.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.06%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 87.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.83% [33][36]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines did not change, and the overall production remained the same. As of August 14, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 111.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0%, and it is expected to remain low next week [38][43]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass increased this week and are expected to rise slightly next week. As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.94%, and the daily melting volume was 88,180 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1,680 tons/day [45][47]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: The inventory of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased this week. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 189.38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%, and the total glass inventory was 63.426 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.55% [49][53]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].
瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250709
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 08:50
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Industry Daily Report 2025-07-09 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract when it rises, and consider buying put options for protection recently [2]. - For glass, in the short term, it is advisable to go long on dips, while in the long - term, the thinking of going short on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1194 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1035 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 159 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,615,142 lots, down 78,753 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,526,305 lots, down 46,116 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is -391,471 lots, down 1,826 lots; glass top 20 net position is -386,664 lots, up 5,285 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3,736 tons, down 297 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 799 tons, down 3 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is -43 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is -97 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is -26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,168 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32%, down 0.89 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68%, up 0.68 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.78 million tons/year, up 0.1 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 222, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8481 million tons, up 38,600 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.085 million weight boxes, down 131,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 183.8514 million square meters, with an increase; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should aim to build an important energy and raw materials base at a high level and develop wind power, photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen energy and other energies to build a new energy system [2]. - US media reported that the US Treasury Secretary said that she plans to hold talks with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on issues such as Sino - US trade [2]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12 to 18 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Normalized Promotion Mechanism for Key Matters of 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'" [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on 14 countries, stating that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2].