1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term main contract of soda ash, while being aware of operational risks [2]. - For glass, the supply remains at the bottom, and the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. However, there is an expectation of restocking as the peak season approaches. If the price drops to around 1100 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity when the 20 - day interest - rate cut expectation may be ignited. It is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract, while being aware of operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1212 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract open interest is 1398920 lots, down 10970 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1115020 lots, up 19010 lots. The net positions of the top 20 holders for soda ash is - 361252, up 3587; for glass is - 264184, up 40727 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 10192 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2438 tons, down 805 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts for soda ash is - 114 yuan, down 12 yuan; for glass is - 182 yuan, down 17 yuan. The basis of soda ash is - 115 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of glass is - 128 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; the number of in - production glass production lines is 223, unchanged. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the inventory of glass enterprises is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative new construction area of real estate is 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative completed area of real estate is 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The domestic soda ash market showed a general trend with a lukewarm trading atmosphere. The supply increased as some plants resumed normal operation. The downstream demand was average, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices. The short - term soda ash market is expected to be lightly stable and volatile [2]. - The spot price of float glass was 1153 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regions had different market conditions, with some prices falling and some remaining stable [2]. Macro - aspect - In July, the housing prices in 70 cities were released. The prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [2].

「 2025.08.15 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨4.73%，玻璃期货上涨1.25%，本周纯碱期货行情呈现出先跌后涨的态势， 整体波动较为明显。本周上半周纯碱在基本面不佳情况下呈现弱势运行，后市场传出青海限产传闻，叠 加碳酸锂行情波动，虽然后续证伪，但下半周走势来看，纯碱依旧在炒作限产能预期，故本周整体呈现 先抑后扬走势，玻璃期货整体呈现震荡下行态势，上半周切换主力合约后，玻璃期货价格一路下行，在 后续有部分地产传闻消息，玻璃期货出现反弹，但整体依旧处于偏弱运行态势 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看国内纯碱开工率上涨，纯碱产量上涨，由于上周利润较为丰厚，所以 检修不及预期，但利润下滑，预计后整体产量有望下行，但短期市场供应依旧宽松，后续市场有望继续 围绕反内卷会议指导，天然碱法将会逐步替代落后产能，需求端玻璃产线冷修数量无变化， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Industry Daily Report 2025-07-09 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract when it rises, and consider buying put options for protection recently [2]. - For glass, in the short term, it is advisable to go long on dips, while in the long - term, the thinking of going short on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1194 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1035 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 159 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,615,142 lots, down 78,753 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,526,305 lots, down 46,116 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is -391,471 lots, down 1,826 lots; glass top 20 net position is -386,664 lots, up 5,285 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3,736 tons, down 297 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 799 tons, down 3 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is -43 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is -97 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is -26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,168 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32%, down 0.89 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68%, up 0.68 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.78 million tons/year, up 0.1 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 222, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8481 million tons, up 38,600 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.085 million weight boxes, down 131,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 183.8514 million square meters, with an increase; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should aim to build an important energy and raw materials base at a high level and develop wind power, photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen energy and other energies to build a new energy system [2]. - US media reported that the US Treasury Secretary said that she plans to hold talks with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on issues such as Sino - US trade [2]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12 to 18 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Normalized Promotion Mechanism for Key Matters of 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'" [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on 14 countries, stating that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2].