Report Overview - Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to fluctuate [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: There are limited fundamental changes; attention should be paid to market sentiment [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Monitor when long-short spread trading funds exit [2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650 yuan, down 3,060 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,335 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 5 [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for Russian nickel imports [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 99,300 yuan, up 12,720 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose, and a lithium concentrate auction was held [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 9,390 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5. The PS2601 closing price was 54,625 yuan/ton, up 1,165 yuan from T - 5 [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: A Turkish - German joint venture plans to build a solar cell and silicon wafer factory [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The continuous government shutdown affects liquidity; silver shows an oscillating rebound [2][5]. - Copper: Concerns about the US economy cause prices to decline [2][9]. - Zinc: Experiences wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Lead: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18]. - Aluminum: Has support at the lower level; alumina's oversupply pattern remains unchanged; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses, while ore - end uncertainties provide support; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][23]. - Lithium carbonate: Weakly oscillates due to复产 expectations and off - season expectations [2][26]. - Industrial silicon: With continuous de - stocking of warehouse receipts, it has strong bottom support; polysilicon: Attention should be paid to this week's information [2][29]. - Iron ore: Repeats at a high level [2][32]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weakly oscillate due to sector sentiment disturbances [2][37]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Experience wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [2][41]. - Coke and coking coal: Repeat at a high level [2][44]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][46]. - p - Xylene: Aromatic blending oil supports valuation, with a high - level oscillating market; PTA: With fair demand and still existing supply pressure, it has a high - level oscillating market; MEG: Has relatively large supply pressure and a weakening trend [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold prices decline, with沪金2512 closing at 915.58 yuan with a daily decline of 0.76%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing; silver shows an oscillating rebound, with沪银2512 closing at 11238 yuan with a daily decline of 1.90%, and成交 increasing while持仓 slightly increasing [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Wall Street warns of inflation risks, and the US government shutdown may break records [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Copper prices fall, with沪铜主力合约 closing at 85740 yuan with a daily decline of 1.79%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US government shutdown and the fate of Trump's tariffs are uncertain; a new copper smelter in Chile gets environmental approval, and an Indonesian company gets a copper concentrate export quota [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices oscillate widely, with沪锌主力 closing at 22670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [12]. - **News**: The Dutch government's interference in semiconductor enterprises and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [13][15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices oscillate, with沪铅主力 closing at 17415 yuan with a daily decline of 0.03%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [16]. - **News**: The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decline, with沪锡主力 closing at 283730 yuan with a daily decline of 0.71%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including inflation warnings and government - related news [18][19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum prices have support at the lower level, with沪铝主力 closing at 21465 yuan with a decline; alumina prices decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices also decline [21]. - **Data**: Various data such as futures market, spot market, and inventory data are provided [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel prices decline, with沪镍主力 closing at 119700 yuan with a decline; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with stainless - steel主力 closing at 12545 yuan with a decline [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian mining company issues and possible US tariffs on China [23][25]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lithium carbonate prices weakly oscillate, with 2511合约 closing at 77160 yuan with a decline, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM lithium carbonate price index decline and Samsung SDI's supply agreement with Tesla [26][27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Volume**: Industrial silicon prices decline, with Si2601 closing at 8885 yuan with a decline; polysilicon prices decline, with PS2601 closing at 53715 yuan with a decline [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**:纤纳光电's release of a large - size perovskite photovoltaic commercial component [29][31]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Volume**: Iron ore prices repeat at a high level, with the futures closing at 775.5 yuan with a decline, and持仓 increasing [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [32][33]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Volume**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices weakly oscillate, with RB2601 closing at 3044 yuan with a decline and HC2601 closing at 3265 yuan with a decline [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production data, government policies on commercial real estate, and national development planning related to the steel industry [37][40]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Volume**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices oscillate widely, with硅铁2601 closing at 5510 yuan with a decline and锰硅2601 closing at 5754 yuan with a decline [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Exchange policy adjustments, regional price quotes, and power price changes [41][43]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Volume**: Coke and coking coal prices repeat at a high level, with JM2601 closing at 1253 yuan with a decline and J2601 closing at 1729 yuan with a decline [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [44][45]. Logs - **Price and Trading Volume**: Log prices oscillate repeatedly, with 2511合约 closing at 740.5 yuan with minor fluctuations, and成交 and持仓 showing significant changes [46][47]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [47][49]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Conditions**: p - Xylene has a high - level oscillating market supported by aromatic blending oil; PTA has a high - level oscillating market with fair demand and supply pressure; MEG has a weakening trend due to large supply pressure [2][50].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to move in a narrow - range oscillation [1][3]. - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as there is a game between reality and expectations [1][4]. - Lithium carbonate is likely to experience a weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production [1][10]. - For industrial silicon, the Inner Mongolia meeting has increased news - related disturbances [1][13]. - Regarding polysilicon, attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [1][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,850, down 940 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,915, up 65 from T - 10. There were also changes in trading volume, various premiums, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 in Indonesia is higher than that in 2024; some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines suspended production; Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 70,720, down 2,180 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a cooperation agreement for lithium - mining [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,665, up 255 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2511 was 52,885, down 635 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory data [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Jinko Energy's subsidiary plans to sell 80% of its equity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]