Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply - side disturbances are recurring, and it will oscillate with an upward bias [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is strong, leading to amplified fluctuations in the futures market [2][13]. - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances this week [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, down 600 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan, down 15 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 87,649 lots, a decrease of 14,608 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 143,960 lots, a decrease of 16,602 lots [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events such as potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in mining quota policies, production suspensions due to losses, and steel mill overhauls in China [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 86,920 yuan, up 1,780 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 39,934 lots, a decrease of 22,135 lots, and the open interest was 89,649 lots, a decrease of 8,414 lots [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and there were changes in the global tablet and smartphone shipments [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,805 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the PS2511 contract closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 2,310 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory data [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xining held a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project kick - off meeting to strengthen the photovoltaic industry [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The recent strong rise in the lithium carbonate futures market is mainly driven by mine - end disturbance news, including issues with lithium mica mines in Jiangxi and the suspension of salt lake mining by some companies. The uncertainty of lithium resource mining approvals and strong macro - commodity sentiment have led to the rise. If there are more domestic resource shutdowns, the supply - demand pattern may reverse. The short - term futures market may be strongly influenced by capital sentiment and policies [3] Market Analysis - On July 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 70,180 yuan/ton and closed at 76,680 yuan/ton, with a 7.21% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,770,283 lots, and the open interest was 436,727 lots (362,054 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 690 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,654 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,200 - 71,900 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,400 - 69,400 yuan/ton, also a 100 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 790 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar/ton change from the previous day. Due to the high price being unacceptable to downstream enterprises, the procurement willingness is weak, and the overall trading volume is light [1] Inventory and Production - The latest total inventory is 142,620 tons (140,793 tons in the previous period), including 58,039 tons in smelters (58,598 tons in the previous period), 41,271 tons in downstream inventories (40,765 tons in the previous period), and 43,310 tons in other inventories (41,430 tons in the previous period) [2] - The latest weekly total production is 18,630 tons (19,115 tons in the previous period), including 9,324 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene (8,994 tons in the previous period), 5,100 tons from mica (5,075 tons in the previous period), 3,282 tons from salt lakes (3,265 tons in the previous period), and 1,409 tons from recycled materials (1,479 tons in the previous period) [2] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4] - **Spot - futures**: None [4] - **Options**: None [4]

Report Overview - Date: July 24, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, while fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the trend may fluctuate widely [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: An industry meeting is held, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,370 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,900 yuan, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel iron project entered the trial - production stage; some nickel smelters in Indonesia resumed production, and a cold - rolling mill planned to stop for maintenance [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,380 yuan, down 3,500 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators. The price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; the EU plans to ban non - electric vehicle purchases for rental companies and large enterprises from 2030 [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,525 yuan, down 130 yuan; the closing price of the PS2509 contract was 50,080 yuan, up 975 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other indicators [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Guizhou Energy Bureau issued a power demand response trading plan [14] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [15]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There are supply - side news disturbances, and high volatility may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts have started to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,695 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 94,219 lots, an increase of 13,487 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 66,368 lots, a decrease of 26,319 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 119,750 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 902 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with a single - line annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][8]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [8]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [8]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [9]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [9]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,660 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 764,028 lots, a decrease of 250,530 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from T - 1 [11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,280 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,689 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. - On July 15, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Exporting in China", adding battery cathode material preparation technology [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, a decrease of 57,095 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 396,653 lots, a decrease of 6,237 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 42,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 705 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of East - China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan from T - 1; the profit of Xinjiang's new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from T - 5; the polysilicon factory inventory was 27.6 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from T - 5 [14]. Macro and Industry News - The Hanyuan Yongli Township and Jiaodingshan photovoltaic power generation projects invested by a subsidiary of the National Energy Group were successfully put into operation. The Yongli Township project has a capacity of 130MW and an annual power generation of 167 million kWh [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - Lithium carbonate: There are policy disturbances on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the subsequent actual progress [2]. - Industrial silicon: Market news has fermented, and the futures price has risen [2]. - Polysilicon: There are policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 290 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,715 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and other indicators of both contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Industry Chain: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 904 yuan, down 1 yuan from T - 1; the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 308 yuan, down 3 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesia CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [5]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the mining fiscal system bill [7]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed [7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [8]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,480 yuan, up 2,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume and other indicators also changed accordingly [10]. - Spot and Basis: The spot - 2509 basis was - 1,830 yuan, down 1,300 yuan from T - 1 [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 927 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day [11]. - Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, while Ganfeng Lithium still expects a loss but with a reduced amount [11][12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of PS2508 was 41,765 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Price and Profit: The price of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, as well as the profit of related enterprises, showed different changes. For example, the silicon - factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,387 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - Inventory: The industrial - silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from T - 5 [13]. Macro and Industry News - Saudi Arabia has signed power - purchase agreements for 7 new solar and wind projects with a total installed capacity of 15GW and a total investment of about 8.3 billion US dollars [13][15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The upside potential is limited, and nickel prices are under pressure at low levels [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has been slightly digested, and steel prices have recovered, but the recovery is limited [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The number of warehouse receipts has significantly decreased, and subsequent registration should be monitored [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Market volatility has increased [2][15]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy changes [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,540 yuan, down 1,730 yuan from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,640 yuan, down 90 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, premiums and discounts, and profit margins in the relevant industrial chain [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and affect production; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 63,660 yuan, up 380 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5,481 hands. There were also changes in the basis, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [12]. - **Macro and industry news**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and the Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2509 closing price was 8,045 yuan, up 65 yuan, and the PS2508 closing price was 36,515 yuan, up 1,005 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Trina Solar signed a component supply agreement with an Austrian company [16][18].