【黄金期货行情表现】 11月19日，沪金主力暂报937.00元/克，涨幅达1.09%，今日沪金主力开盘价922.54元/克，截至目前最高 938.32元/克，最低922.54元/克。 【宏观消息】 外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松同日本外务省亚大局局长金井正彰举行磋商。磋商结束后，刘劲松回应相关问 题时表示对磋商结果不满意，并称双方会面时气氛严肃。 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为自己已经选定了下一任美联储主席的人选，同时声称有人阻止他开除现任 美联储主席鲍威尔。贝森特表示，他已将候选范围缩小至以下人选：现任美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，前美 联储理事沃什，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特，以及贝莱德公司高管里德。 【机构观点】 今日黄金收于4080.47美元，日内波动-105.53美元。实际利率10年TIPS 4.14%较前值上升0.02%，对黄金 影响偏弱。名义利率变动0.03美元指数变动0.1115，短期节奏偏强压制金价。从中期来看，Q3以来名义 利率和美元指数形成背离，金价中性，资金结构方面，截止10月底，全球黄金ETF持仓为3892.6吨，处 于年内较高水平，资金面表现相对积极。宏观事件方面，重点关注美国 10 月住房开工与建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation, and government bond prices, emphasizing that nominal interest rates serve as a proxy for risk-free rates and are influenced by economic growth and inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates - CPI is a crucial indicator of inflation; an increase in CPI from 2 to 5 leads to higher nominal return expectations, resulting in rising risk-free rates and falling government bond prices [2]. - Actual interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are positively correlated with economic growth, while nominal rates are positively correlated with both economic growth and inflation [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Bond Price Changes - When nominal interest rates decrease, government bond prices increase as investors seek higher yields from fixed-income products [3]. - Conversely, when nominal interest rates rise, government bond prices decline due to new bonds offering higher yields [4]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing 30-Year Bonds - The two main factors affecting 30-year government bonds are actual interest rates and CPI growth rates; both factors inversely affect bond prices [5][6]. - A simultaneous decrease in actual interest rates and CPI growth rates leads to a significant increase in bond prices, while simultaneous increases lead to a substantial decrease [7]. Group 4: Determinants of Actual Interest Rates - Economic conditions significantly influence actual interest rates, reflecting borrowing costs and market supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Central bank policies, including adjustments to open market operations and reserve requirements, play a critical role in shaping actual interest rates [9]. Group 5: Factors Affecting 30-Year Bond ETF - Changes in interest rates directly impact ETF net values; rising yields lead to declining net values, while falling yields boost net values [10]. - The shape of the yield curve affects the attractiveness of 30-year bonds; a steepening curve may reduce demand for long-term bonds, while a flattening or inverted curve enhances their appeal [11][12]. - Inflation expectations can suppress ETF prices, while recession expectations can lower rates and benefit ETF prices [13][14]. Group 6: Conclusion and Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF acts as a "barometer" for interest rate markets, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and investor behavior [15]. - Investors should focus on interest rate path expectations, ETF premium/discount risks, and inflation expectations when making investment decisions [16][17][18]. - In a rate-cutting environment, it is generally advisable to take long positions in government bonds, although inappropriate rate cuts could lead to rising CPI and hinder market rate declines [19][20].