东方雨虹 20251029 摘要 东方雨虹 2025 年第三季度受益于卷材（销量同比增长 12%）、防水涂 料（个位数增长）和砂粉等产品销量增加，但价格战影响卷材收入增速， 防水涂料收入增速高于销量增速。 直销业务受益于海外业务和专项领域事业部增长，收入同比增长约 30%-40%，但公建集团地产集采和施工收入大幅下滑。 工程渠道毛利率环比提升 2 个百分点至 23%，主要得益于缓慢涨价，而 零售渠道毛利率环比略有下降，因民用建材副驾小幅上涨对整体帮助有 限。 民建集团通过减员增效和降费措施，销售费用和管理费用绝对值同比减 少十几个百分点，整体费用率降低一个多百分点，有效提升了利润端表 现。 民建集团转型零售和小 B 为主，经营现金流量净额显著改善，前三季度 累计经营现金流量净额实现近十年来首次转正，应收账款等经营质量指 标也显著好转。 亿元，同比增长约 30%至 40%。 具体产品品类的销售情况如何？ 卷材销量在 2025 年第三季度同比增长 12%，但由于价格战影响，收入仅增长 约 5%至 6%。防水涂料销量实现个位数增长，但收入端增速更快，达到 15%。砂粉前三季度收入突破 30 亿元，同比有所增加，销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts reaffirmed their target price of $4,900 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, highlighting potential "upside risk" due to ongoing structural buying from central banks and high-net-worth individuals [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current sell-off in the gold market is attributed to speculative position liquidations and spillover effects from the silver market, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals [1]. - Structural demand, characterized by "sticky" buying, remains strong from September to October, contrasting with the quick in-and-out nature of speculative funds [3]. Group 2: Sources of Structural Demand - Central banks are expected to show seasonal buying patterns, with purchases likely to rebound in September and October after a quiet summer [4]. - Gold ETFs are anticipated to see renewed inflows driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification needs, alongside increased physical gold purchases from ultra-high-net-worth individuals [5]. Group 3: Price Impact and Investor Interest - Goldman Sachs' model indicates that a firm buying of 100 tons can lead to a price increase of 1.5%-2%, with a notable increase of 154 tons in August validating this model [6]. - The interest from institutional investors is rising, with many planning to increase gold allocations as part of their strategic portfolios, which presents significant "upside risk" to the $4,900 target price [8][10].