金十数据6月6日讯，凯投宏观的安德鲁•肯宁汉写道，欧元区年初的强劲增长掩盖了该地区经济潜在的 疲弱表现。周五公布的数据显示，欧元区一季度增长了0.6%，对此前0.3%增长预期的大幅修正。但这 种快速增长在很大程度上要归功于美国征收贸易关税预期推动的药品出口激增。肯宁汉说，德国和爱尔 兰这两个重要的药品生产国在很大程度上支持了此次上修。他说，这种情况将在第二季度初出现逆转。 他警告说："从这种波动来看，潜在的情况是一种微弱的周期性复苏。" 凯投宏观：欧元区由关税引发的增长无法持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) reported better-than-expected Q2 results and provided optimistic guidance for Q3, reflecting strong performance in the analog chip and MCU sectors [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $2.64 billion, exceeding market consensus of $2.51 billion and Morgan Stanley's estimate of $2.50 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 8.9% and year-over-year growth of 22.3% [1][2]. - Adjusted gross margin was 69.4%, surpassing market consensus of 68.6% and Morgan Stanley's estimate of 69.1% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.85, higher than the market consensus of $1.69 and Morgan Stanley's estimate of $1.70 [1]. Segment Performance - Revenue breakdown for Q2 included: - Industrial: $1.16 billion, slightly above estimates [2]. - Automotive: $849.5 million, exceeding estimates by 13% [2]. - Consumer: $317.8 million, in line with expectations [2]. - Communications: $315.1 million, exceeding estimates by 11% [2]. Q3 Guidance - For Q3, ADI expects revenue of $2.75 billion, above market consensus of $2.60 billion and Morgan Stanley's estimate of $2.60 billion [2]. - Expected adjusted EPS for Q3 is $1.92, higher than market consensus of $1.79 and Morgan Stanley's estimate of $1.86 [2]. Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley raised revenue and margin forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026, reflecting increased confidence in cyclical recovery [3]. - The company anticipates strong performance across all end markets and regions, with industrial demand expected to align better with supply in Q3 [3]. - ADI's management acknowledged the impact of customer pull-ins, particularly in the automotive sector, contributing significantly to Q2 revenue outperformance [3]. Operational Efficiency - ADI's operational leverage is expected to normalize in the second half of FY2025, setting a solid foundation for FY2026 [4]. - The company has maintained an operating profit margin above 40% since Q2 FY2024, with guidance for Q3 FY2025 at 41.5% [4]. - Inventory management and communication with distributors have improved, supporting operational leverage [4]. Market Position - Despite a high valuation, ADI's stable performance amidst macroeconomic uncertainty positions it as a defensive play in the analog chip sector [5]. - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the analog chip industry, believing it is in a recovery phase after hitting a bottom [5]. - ADI is viewed as the most defensive stock in the analog chip/MCU sector due to its strong balance sheet and effective supply-demand management [5].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC forecasts a 3.8% year-on-year growth in A-share earnings for Q1 2025, led by the materials (+40.3%) and information technology (+24.7%) sectors, with a continued outperformance of growth style over the market [1][2] Investment Themes Artificial Intelligence (AI) - The penetration rate of AI is rising, with 68% of A-share companies mentioning "AI" in their 2024 annual reports, up from 43% in the first half of 2024 [3] - Market expectations indicate accelerated profit growth in the AI value chain for 2025, with infrastructure companies expected to grow faster than technology enablers and applicators [3] Globalization - Recent breakthroughs in US-China trade negotiations serve as a catalyst for globalization-themed stocks [4] - In 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 11.7% of total revenue for CSI 300 constituents, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with the information technology sector having the highest overseas revenue share at 31.4% [4] Cyclical Recovery - Cyclical industries are expected to see profit improvements, with overall earnings projected to grow by 18.8% in Q1 2025, compared to a decline of 17.9% in Q3 2024 [5] - Factors contributing to structural opportunities in cyclical industries include steady policy rollout, structural recovery in the real estate market, and attractive valuations [5] Recommended Stocks - Based on the three investment themes and bottom-up research, HSBC recommends the following 10 stocks with buy ratings: - AI Theme: Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Deepin Technology (300454.SZ), Zhangqu Technology (300315.SZ) [6] - Globalization Theme: HAPO (02142), Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ), Anker Innovations (300866.SZ), Giant Star Technology (002444.SZ) [6] - Cyclical Recovery Theme: Suzhou Bank (002966.SZ), Proya Cosmetics (603605.SH), SF Holding (002352.SZ) [6]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Battery and Components Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Battery and Components - **Date**: March 1, 2025 - **Key Players**: CATL, Hunan Yuneng Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strong March Shipments**: March 2025 is expected to see a significant increase in battery shipments, with a month-over-month (mom) growth of +15%, surpassing consensus expectations of single-digit growth. This is viewed as a positive leading indicator for the demand outlook in 2025 [1][9][10] 2. **LFP Cathodes Utilization**: The utilization rate for LFP cathodes is projected to rise to approximately 93% in March 2025, up from 81% in February 2025. This indicates a recovery in demand for both Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and New Energy Vehicles (NEV) [2][16] 3. **Price Expectations**: Due to sustained supply-demand tightness, a price increase for LFP cathodes is anticipated, signaling the beginning of an upcycle from 2024 to 2026 [2] 4. **Share Price Catalysts**: The strong expected battery shipments are seen as a catalyst for share price increases, with a noted correlation between battery shipments and share performance for companies like CATL and Yuneng since 2024 [3][10] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - **CATL**: Rated as a Buy with a target price of Rmb378, supported by a projected 25% EPS CAGR from 2024E to 2030E, driven by a 21% volume CAGR and expanding unit gross profit [19][21] - **Hunan Yuneng**: Also rated as a Buy, expected to benefit from the LFP cathode upcycle with an EPS CAGR of ~187% from 2024E to 2026E [23][24] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Share and Competitive Position**: CATL holds a 40% global market share in 2023, while Hunan Yuneng is the leading LFP cathode maker with a ~34% market share in 2024E [19][23] 2. **Risks**: - For CATL, risks include potential product upgrades by competitors, lower battery demand growth, and trade barrier deterioration [22] - For Yuneng, risks involve faster-than-expected capacity additions and slower-than-expected demand growth [26] 3. **Utilization Recovery**: The recovery in utilization rates across various battery sectors is expected to support both companies' performance and market positioning [15][20] 4. **Long-term Outlook**: The report emphasizes a positive long-term outlook for both companies, driven by the global electrification trend and the anticipated recovery in battery demand [19][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the China battery and components industry, highlighting the expected growth, investment opportunities, and associated risks.