商品价格全面爆发！ 国际铜连续主力合约日内涨4%，报89160元。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | 估算规模 管理公司 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561330 | 矿业ETF | 3.38% | 103.43% | 9.81亿 国泰基金 | | 159690 | 有色矿业ETF招商 | 3.04% | 100.00% | 7349.12万 招商基金 | 华龙证券认为，黄金与长期美债实际利率的负相关框架解释力逐步弱化，其背后是美元及美国信用的弱化，黄金作为避险 资产的性质得到加强。工业金属方面，市场对2026年中国铜需求较乐观，预期将保持一定韧性，看好2026年以铜为代表的 工业金属表现。 东方证券认为，金铜铝铁权益端涨幅明显滞后商品端，板块对应明年估值也处于较低水平。随着后续商品价格持续新高， 市场对金铜铝铁中期价格上行预期有望不断强化，上周短期波动后，权益板块有望在需求推动下维持中期上涨，可积极关 注相关板块的投资机会。 现货黄金涨超1%，首次站上4530美元/盎司大关，年内累计涨幅超72%，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。 现货白银突破 ...

美国11月失业率意外升至4.6%(超预期)，促使市场重新评估美联储2026年降息路径，实际利率下行的预 期为金价提供有力支撑。 摘要今日周一(12月22日)亚洲时段，钯金、铂金延续大涨，广期所两品种双双涨停，白银频刷新高；阔 别两个交易月，国际黄金亦再创历史新高。今日黄金开盘依托5日线4340美元区域持续上攻，现已突破 历史新高4382美元，多头气势如虹。近期，金、银、铂、钯"贵金属四兄弟"中，唯独黄金此前未充分发 力，白银则屡创新高；此番白银领涨带动黄金，在多次冲高遇阻后，黄金终迎突破，刷新纪录。 今日周一(12月22日)亚洲时段，钯金、铂金延续大涨，广期所两品种双双涨停，白银频刷新高；阔别两 个交易月，国际黄金亦再创历史新高。今日黄金开盘依托5日线4340美元区域持续上攻，现已突破历史 新高4382美元，多头气势如虹。近期，金、银、铂、钯"贵金属四兄弟"中，唯独黄金此前未充分发力， 白银则屡创新高；此番白银领涨带动黄金，在多次冲高遇阻后，黄金终迎突破，刷新纪录。 【基本面解析】 【最新技术分析】 现货黄金：黄金在刷新历史新高后，其多头理论目标我们已于上周做过研判：短期可看4430~4440美元 区域，本轮 ...

Group 1 - The domestic economy is expected to remain in a deflationary cycle into 2025, with prices of various goods such as housing, vehicles, small appliances, electronic products, and pork experiencing declines, which will lower consumer spending costs significantly [1] - Starting from December, prices of four categories of goods are predicted to rise significantly, prompting consumers to prepare in advance [1] Group 2 - Winter agricultural product prices are experiencing an increase, particularly in vegetables, with prices for items like green vegetables rising from 2.5 yuan per jin to 4-5 yuan per jin, tomatoes from 4.5 yuan per jin to 6-7 yuan per jin, and spinach from 5-6 yuan per jin to 8-9 yuan per jin [4] - The increase in vegetable prices is attributed to higher production costs due to winter greenhouse farming and increased transportation costs as many vegetables must be sourced from distant southern regions [4] Group 3 - Heating costs are expected to rise by 5%-10% in northern cities as centralized heating begins in December, leading to additional expenses of 50-200 yuan for an average two-bedroom apartment [5][7] - The rise in heating costs is driven by peak demand during winter and increased energy prices, particularly coal [7] Group 4 - Prices for winter clothing and accessories such as coats, hats, scarves, and gloves are also expected to rise due to increased demand and higher production costs for materials like down and cotton [9] - The demand for winter clothing surges as the cold season arrives, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that drives prices up [9] Group 5 - Prices for beef and lamb are increasing, with lamb rising from 55 yuan per jin to 68 yuan per jin and beef from 45 yuan per jin to 56 yuan per jin [11] - The price increase is driven by higher consumer demand for these meats during winter, as well as increased purchases by restaurants and canteens for winter dishes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply disruptions in copper mines in September have driven copper prices to historical highs, while a significant reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is pushing cobalt prices upward. The supply-side disruptions are expected to continue influencing commodity prices into Q4 2025, with copper and cobalt prices likely to maintain an upward trend [1] Group 1: Copper and Cobalt Market - September saw increased supply disruptions in copper mining, leading to a surge in copper prices to historical highs [1] - The reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is contributing to rising cobalt prices [1] - Supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor affecting commodity prices, particularly for copper and cobalt, into Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Lithium and Silicon Products - The demand for lithium is expected to rise due to a significant increase in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage [1] - Lithium prices are projected to continue increasing in Q4 2025 as a result of this heightened demand [1] - Silicon products, which experienced substantial price increases in Q3 due to expectations surrounding anti-competitive policies, are also expected to see slight price increases in Q4 [1]

花旗首席执行官：，预计随着关税的生效，商品价格将在今年夏季开始逐步上涨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode to better understand the impact of tariffs [1] - There is an expectation of significant increases in commodity prices [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there has been a recent increase in commodity prices, and this trend is expected to continue during the summer [1] Group 1 - Recent commodity price increases have been noted [1] - An expectation of continued upward price trends in the summer has been expressed [1]