报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 商品普遍上涨。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨多跌少，标普500、道琼斯和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.4%、1.3%和1%。债市方面，海外主要市场债市收益率多数下 行，10年期美债收益率较上周下行11bp。商品方面，美伊地缘风险推动商品价格普涨。原油价格上涨，WTI原油和布伦特原油较上周分别上行3.8%和4.9%，伦敦金 价上升3.3%。汇率方面，美元指数回落0.1%，离岸人民币兑美元升值0.5%。 | | | 2. 主要央行货币政策 美联储正推进"去监管"。 2月26日，美联储副主席鲍曼在国会发表证词，系统阐述了对银行业监管框架的全面改革计划。她表示，对于社区银行，美联储正推动提 高法定资产门槛、修订数十年未变的反洗钱报告标准，并简化并购审批流程，赋予其更大资本灵活性，使其专注于服务经济。对于大型银行，美联储也在推动对监 管框架的修订，包括资本框架的四大支柱进行调整：压力测试、补充杠杆率、巴塞尔协议III框架以及全球系统重要性银行附加费。 欧央行方面， 拉加德表示预期 中期内通胀率将稳定在2%的目标水平，因此月初继续维持政策利率不变。 日央行方面， 日本央行行长暗示，若春季工 ...

煤炭股爆发，煤炭ETF（515220）涨超4.6%，资金连续4日净流入额超4亿元，当前规模超88亿元。 从基本面看，供给方面，随着春节临近，煤矿将陆续开始放假，短期煤炭供给较难放量。中期维 度，今年产能核增退出与内蒙古灾害治理项目政策有望逐步推出，煤炭供给有减量空间，具体需等待政 策落地情况，如果超出市场预期，煤价具备向上弹性。 需求方面，电厂日耗抬升，煤炭可用天数下行，冬季用电供暖需求正在改善，此前积累的煤炭库存 逐步去化。根据国家气候中心预测，未来一个月将有多次冷空气过程，煤炭需求预期改善。 同时，煤炭行业的估值与分红亦凸显价值：截至2026年1月28日，中证煤炭指数市净率仅为1.59 倍，股息率5.82%，在当前低利率的市场环境下，其"高股息、高现金流"的防御属性具备较高的配置性 价比。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Surge - International copper futures rose by 4%, reaching 89,160 yuan [1] - Spot gold increased by over 1%, surpassing $4,530 per ounce, with a year-to-date gain of over 72%, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [2] - Spot silver broke through $75 per ounce, achieving a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 160% [2] Group 2: Market Performance and ETFs - A-shares of companies like Yongxing Materials and Jiangxi Copper hit the daily limit, while others like Zhongjin Resources and Tongling Nonferrous Metals rose over 5% [2] - Mining ETFs and non-ferrous mining ETFs saw gains of over 3%, with year-to-date increases exceeding 100% [2][3] - The Mining ETF managed by Guotai Fund has an estimated scale of 981 million yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 103.43% [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Huolong Securities noted a weakening negative correlation between gold and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting a strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3] - Dongfang Securities indicated that the equity performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron has lagged behind commodity prices, with expectations for mid-term price increases as commodity prices continue to rise [3] - Guoxin Securities highlighted that the processing fee for copper concentrate contracts will drop to zero by 2026, reflecting a supply-demand mismatch in the copper mining and smelting industry [4] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Fangzheng Securities expects continued upward momentum in copper and aluminum prices, driven by global copper inventory adjustments and supply shortages [5] - The anticipated tightening of copper supply is projected, with refined copper demand growth expected to outpace supply growth in 2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve's expected easing of monetary policy may further support copper prices, as historical trends show price increases following the end of Fed rate-cutting cycles [5]

Core Insights - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold reaching a new historical high of $4,382 per ounce [1] - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6% in November has led the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index is weakening, which reduces the holding costs for gold; global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with demand expected to reach 1,313 tons by Q3 2025, a record high [2] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [2] - The combination of ample liquidity and constrained supply is driving commodity prices to high levels, with strategic value in raw materials becoming increasingly prominent [2] Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term target is set between $4,430 and $4,440, with potential upward movement towards $4,470 to $4,500 or even $4,580 [3] - Silver maintains a long-term bullish outlook, with a core target of $100; however, there is a need to monitor for potential short-term adjustments after recent highs [3]

Group 1 - The domestic economy is expected to remain in a deflationary cycle into 2025, with prices of various goods such as housing, vehicles, small appliances, electronic products, and pork experiencing declines, which will lower consumer spending costs significantly [1] - Starting from December, prices of four categories of goods are predicted to rise significantly, prompting consumers to prepare in advance [1] Group 2 - Winter agricultural product prices are experiencing an increase, particularly in vegetables, with prices for items like green vegetables rising from 2.5 yuan per jin to 4-5 yuan per jin, tomatoes from 4.5 yuan per jin to 6-7 yuan per jin, and spinach from 5-6 yuan per jin to 8-9 yuan per jin [4] - The increase in vegetable prices is attributed to higher production costs due to winter greenhouse farming and increased transportation costs as many vegetables must be sourced from distant southern regions [4] Group 3 - Heating costs are expected to rise by 5%-10% in northern cities as centralized heating begins in December, leading to additional expenses of 50-200 yuan for an average two-bedroom apartment [5][7] - The rise in heating costs is driven by peak demand during winter and increased energy prices, particularly coal [7] Group 4 - Prices for winter clothing and accessories such as coats, hats, scarves, and gloves are also expected to rise due to increased demand and higher production costs for materials like down and cotton [9] - The demand for winter clothing surges as the cold season arrives, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that drives prices up [9] Group 5 - Prices for beef and lamb are increasing, with lamb rising from 55 yuan per jin to 68 yuan per jin and beef from 45 yuan per jin to 56 yuan per jin [11] - The price increase is driven by higher consumer demand for these meats during winter, as well as increased purchases by restaurants and canteens for winter dishes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply disruptions in copper mines in September have driven copper prices to historical highs, while a significant reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is pushing cobalt prices upward. The supply-side disruptions are expected to continue influencing commodity prices into Q4 2025, with copper and cobalt prices likely to maintain an upward trend [1] Group 1: Copper and Cobalt Market - September saw increased supply disruptions in copper mining, leading to a surge in copper prices to historical highs [1] - The reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is contributing to rising cobalt prices [1] - Supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor affecting commodity prices, particularly for copper and cobalt, into Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Lithium and Silicon Products - The demand for lithium is expected to rise due to a significant increase in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage [1] - Lithium prices are projected to continue increasing in Q4 2025 as a result of this heightened demand [1] - Silicon products, which experienced substantial price increases in Q3 due to expectations surrounding anti-competitive policies, are also expected to see slight price increases in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Citigroup anticipates that as tariffs take effect, commodity prices will begin to gradually rise starting this summer [1] Group 1 - The implementation of tariffs is expected to influence commodity pricing dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode to better understand the impact of tariffs [1] - There is an expectation of significant increases in commodity prices [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there has been a recent increase in commodity prices, and this trend is expected to continue during the summer [1] Group 1 - Recent commodity price increases have been noted [1] - An expectation of continued upward price trends in the summer has been expressed [1]