Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]

铂金等品种今年以来累计涨幅均较大，显著受益于美元贬值。贵金属中的黄金和白银受美元指数下跌这一利多因素的影响更为直接，两者今年以来累计涨 幅均超20%。" 股票市场方面，蒲祖林表示，美元指数下跌往往会在短期内对美国股市产生积极影响。特别是对于出口导向型的美国企业而言，它们通常能从美元贬值中 受益，因为产品在国际市场上更具价格优势，从而有望获得更高的销售额。美元指数下跌还会从流动性角度对非美市场股市产生正面影响。美元贬值会促 使全球流动性资金池向非美发达经济体和稳定经济体外溢。 债券市场方面，美元指数下跌带来的影响较为复杂。蒲祖林表示，一方面，美国经济降温使市场预期美联储可能降息，这对美债构成利多驱动。然而，美 国关税政策带来的通胀压力又对美债形成利空；另一方面，全球资本流出美国可能引发债券市场的抛售，尤其是长端国债。在多空因素的扰动下，美债今 年以来维持低位震荡走势，短端表现相对偏强，而长端在4至5月份受关税冲击和美债巨量到期窗口的影响，引发了一轮大规模的抛售潮。 近期，美元指数震荡下跌并创下阶段新低，引发市场广泛关注。 Wind数据显示，6月26日盘中，美元指数一度跌破97关口，最低至96.9923，为202 ...

我们预计，将看到商品价格在一定程度上大幅上涨。 鲍威尔：美联储处于观望状态，是为了更好地感知关税（的影响）。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：近期商品价格出现了一些上涨，预计在夏季期间这种趋势将会继续。 ...