Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international gold prices reaching a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce and silver prices nearing $44 per ounce has sparked discussions about a potential new bull market in commodities [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary driver behind the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Powell's cautious stance on rapid policy adjustments [3] - The overall commodity market is showing signs of recovery, with international oil prices steadily rising and industrial metal prices rebounding from previous lows [3][4] - The fundamental price fluctuations in commodities are rooted in the dynamic balance of supply and demand, influenced by global supply chain restructuring and extreme weather conditions [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the supply side, insufficient investment in the mining and energy sectors over the past few years has limited capacity release, leading to structural supply gaps [4] - For instance, major copper mining companies are expected to cover only 3% of the demand growth from 2023 to 2024, while demand from sectors like renewable energy is growing at 8%-10% [4] - Demand is bolstered by various national "new infrastructure" and "energy transition" plans, particularly in China and Europe, which are driving the need for industrial commodities [6] Group 3: Policy and Monetary Environment - Global consensus on "stabilizing growth" has led to increased support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, significantly impacting industrial commodity demand [6] - The U.S. plans to invest $369 billion in clean energy over the next decade, creating long-term demand for commodities [6] - The end of the interest rate hike cycle by major central banks and expectations of future rate cuts are contributing to a weaker dollar, which enhances the relative value of commodities [7] Group 4: Short-term Catalysts - Geopolitical tensions and inventory cycle changes can amplify commodity price volatility, acting as catalysts for a bull market [9] - Current geopolitical issues, such as tensions in the Middle East, have affected oil transport safety, leading to oil prices exceeding $90 per barrel [9] - Low inventory levels across major commodities, including a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, suggest that any marginal improvement in demand could lead to a price surge [9] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the commodity sector should focus on understanding cyclical changes and leverage tools like futures and options to hedge against price volatility [11] - Emphasizing the importance of digital transformation in risk management, companies can enhance decision-making accuracy and operational efficiency through integrated solutions [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a comprehensive product of economic, technological, and social systems, rather than merely focusing on macroeconomic indicators [2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - Following the pandemic, global fiscal stimulus, geopolitical tensions, and a surge in AI capital expenditures have led to a bullish trend in metals and various commodities [3]. - The article questions whether the current commodity bull market can sustain itself and what underlying bullish drivers remain unrecognized by investment banks and media [3]. - The series aims to provide insights and materials for readers to make informed judgments and decisions regarding the commodity market [3]. Group 2: Market Participation and Trading Behavior - The article discusses the role of top traders and their actions in influencing market prices, suggesting that asset price changes are a result of complex interactions within economic and social systems [4]. - It highlights the importance of understanding market rhythms and the process of trading rather than relying solely on predictive models [4][5]. - Historical cycles of economic prosperity and recession (Kondratiev waves) are presented, indicating that the current phase may be entering a recovery period with increased investment demand [6]. Group 3: Strategic Role of Commodities - Recent political developments have led investment banks to believe that commodities will play a more strategic role in investment portfolios, with even a small allocation being considered beneficial [7]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a four-step "control cycle" for commodities, emphasizing the need for supply chain security, market share expansion, concentration of supply, and leveraging geopolitical tools [8][9][10]. - The article suggests that as commodities become a necessary part of investment strategies, their market dynamics will change, potentially leading to increased price volatility and inflation risks [10]. Group 4: Gold as a Safe Haven - The World Gold Council is planning to introduce "digital gold" to innovate the gold trading and settlement process, which could significantly alter the existing gold market ecosystem [15]. - The rising price of gold, particularly since the election of Trump, signals a shift in the global macro environment, indicating a potential bull market for commodities [17]. - The influx of capital into gold futures is expected to have a spillover effect on other commodities, leading to a broad-based bull market [17].

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of a commodity bull market driven by anti-involution policies and increased infrastructure investment, which are expected to positively impact upstream supply chains and commodity prices [5][15][61] - The transportation sector has shown mixed performance, with the public transport sub-sector leading with an 11.1% increase, while the aviation sub-sector lagged with a -6.7% decline [5][13] - The report emphasizes the growing concentration in the bulk supply chain market, with the CR4 market share rising from 1.21% in 2016 to 4.18% in 2022, indicating a trend towards larger, more stable companies benefiting from the anti-involution policies [5][33] Market Overview - As of July 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4135.82, up 5.1% year-to-date, while the CITIC Transportation Index underperformed at 2061.14, up only 1.1% [7][9] - The report notes that the overall market for bulk supply chain services in China was approximately 55 trillion yuan in 2022, with a significant increase in market concentration observed [5][25][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on midstream logistics and warehousing companies like Wuchan Zhongda (600704.SH) to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in commodity prices and demand [5][61] - It also recommends monitoring leading dry bulk shipping companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH) and Haitong Development (603162.SH) as shipping demand is expected to rebound [5][61] Commodity Price Trends - Since July 1, 2025, major commodity prices have rebounded significantly, with DCE coking coal prices rising by 54.6%, iron ore by 13.3%, and soda ash by 23.6% [22][23] - The report indicates that the anti-involution policies are likely to stabilize commodity prices and improve profitability for leading supply chain companies [22][38] Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing importance of long-distance transportation for iron ore imports, particularly from Brazil and Guinea, which is expected to drive up shipping demand due to longer transport distances [44][52] - The growth trend in aluminum ore imports is also noted, with a significant increase in dependency on foreign sources, particularly from Guinea [56][59] Company Performance and Projections - Wuchan Zhongda is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 620.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of around 3.67 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [66][68] - China Merchants Energy Shipping is expected to benefit from a recovering market, with projected net profits of 5.9 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a robust operational capacity [70][72] - Haitong Development is anticipated to see a rebound in profits as market conditions improve, with projections of 263.66 million yuan in net profit for 2025 [73][76]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiaguoqi Power Mixed A (019336) reported a profit of 5.2523 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 5.8% during the period [3] Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 90.0894 million yuan [16] - The fund's unit net value was 1.02 yuan as of July 17 [3] - The fund's performance over different periods includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 11.24%, ranking 21 out of 82 comparable funds [3] - 6-month net value growth rate: 10.01%, ranking 30 out of 82 comparable funds [3] - 1-year net value growth rate: 6.91%, ranking 49 out of 77 comparable funds [3] Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated that the second wave of the current commodity bull market will be a core logic supporting the fund's investment strategy, focusing on sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, crude oil, banking, oil transportation, and public utilities [3] - The fund will also actively look for opportunities in other cyclical and value sectors that are at the bottom of their reversal [3] Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.5009 [8] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 24.52%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 12.05% [11] Portfolio Composition - The fund maintains a high stock position, with an average stock position of 92.55% since inception, compared to the industry average of 84.97% [15] - The fund's top holdings as of Q2 2025 include companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Bank of Communications, Zhaojin Mining, China National Offshore Oil, and China Petroleum [19]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a "super cycle" with significant price increases in gold and oil driven by inflation and geopolitical risks [1][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Dynamics - Gold is seen as both a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, with prices surpassing $2400 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - Oil prices have risen due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks, with Brent crude oil prices returning above $85 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and increased demand from China and the U.S. [4][7]. Group 2: TradeMax Platform Features - TradeMax offers a comprehensive trading platform for commodities, allowing users to trade gold and oil with features like low spreads and no expiration dates for contracts [4][5]. - The platform provides intelligent tools for decision-making, including real-time market analysis and alerts for significant economic events, enhancing trading strategies [4][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and oil remains strong, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, although potential corrections may occur following Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][8]. - Technical analysis suggests gold could target $2500 per ounce, while Brent crude oil may challenge the $90 per barrel mark, indicating potential trading opportunities [8].