以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘晓元 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | 刘晓元 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 历史复盘显示，历次大宗商品牛市并不存在"金先动→银跟上→铜确认→油引暴→农收尾"的严格板块轮动顺序。唯一相对普遍的规律是农 产品往往在牛市后期表现强势，其他板块的启动顺序和表现强度，均取决于当时的宏观与商品自身基本面。 紫金天风期货研究所 . 对于本轮上涨行情来说，我们监测的大宗商品市场情绪指标已经接近过热预警线，因此短期内商品市场回调风险有所加大。从资金行为 上看，资金自2025年6月起持续流入商品市场，近期呈现从贵金属、有色向其他板块扩散的迹象。在板块配置角度，我们跟踪的Smart Money仍维持贵金属与有色多头、黑色空头，农产品已由空转多，并开始试探性布局化工。 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 2026年能否迎来一轮商品轮动式的牛市，核心仍需观察宏观政策、产业基本面改善情况以及资金在板块间的接力流向。短期需警惕市场 整体情绪过热后的技术性回调。中长期配置仍需回归各板块的宏观驱动与产业逻辑，而非押注于固定轮动顺序。 MANUFACTURE 20 ...

以下文章来源于晓策佬 ，作者乖乖隆的冬 晓策佬 . 商品期货领域，转载诸路干货，原创都是实话，当然会有广告。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 2025年，似乎所有人都挣到了钱，细想应是挣到钱的人声音较大，因为2025年的行情确实很大。 一是热点品种不断创新高。 上周现货黄金连续刷新历史新高，周五最高接近4550美元/盎司，今年累计涨超70%。白银走势更为凌厉，连续突破整数关口并刷新纪 录，周五最高涨破79美元/盎司关口；铂金、钯金及工业金属铜也在资金推动下创出阶段性甚至历史新高。 二是商品强弱表现极致分化。 12月如此密集的软逼仓交易多年罕见，既有对库存偏高品种的空逼多，如焦煤、PVC、纯碱、玻璃、甲醇等，也有对相对紧缺物资的多 逼空，如贵金属和有色板块。 强势品种逻辑也是有区别的，比如贵金属行情是金融属性走强及避险预期，工业金属行情是供需紧平衡逻辑及通胀预期，并呈现"铜 紧、铝稳、镍松"格局。核心逻辑从"广谱需求复苏"，转向"供给约束+结构性需求"，能源转型和AI成为改变平衡表预期的重要驱动，而 四季度储能需求的爆炒狂飙而至，一石激起千层浪。 总之，2025年的大宗商品投资，呈现明显的预期引领价值，从操作层面上 ...

铜板块方面，一批世界级铜矿项目加速迈入关键交付节点。 12月30日，紫金矿业发布2025年业绩预告，预计全年实现归母净利润约510—520亿元，同比增长约 59%-62%，再创历史新高。 这一年，紫金矿业市场价值得到资本市场重估，市值年内连跨4个千亿大关至8800多亿元，与必和必 拓、力拓一道位列全球上市金属矿企前三位。 紫金矿业持续保持高增长的背后，既有矿产品量价齐升的助推，又是运营效率不断提升带来的长期价值 兑现。 2025年，公司抢抓黄金和铜等大宗商品进入结构性牛市的历史时机，进一步提升运营效率和经营韧性， 主营产品持续放量，矿产金同比增长23.5%至90吨，矿产铜同比增长2%至109万吨。在黄金成为矿业市 场最耀眼"明星金属"的这一年，公司矿产金产量顺势释放，增速节节攀升，超额完成年度产量计划目 标。 此外，精准高效并购可实现价值提升的现实产能，亦带动黄金产量提升。4月，公司完成对在产矿山加 纳阿基姆金矿项目100%权益的交割，年均产金5.8吨。10月，紫金黄金国际完成在产的哈萨克斯坦瑞果 多金矿交割，年均产金5.5吨。 资本运作是实现"资源掌控力"向"价值创造力"转化的重要手段。2025年，紫金矿业 ...

2025年末，受气候异常扰动、地缘冲突升级与供需格局错配等因素影响，全球大宗商品市场迎来一轮强劲的上涨行情。多数品种价格涨势如虹，核心品类更 是表现亮眼。 其中，贵金属延续牛市，12月24日，COMEX黄金期货站到4550美元/盎司上方，COMEX白银则飙升至72美元/盎司以上，二者均有望创下1979年以来的最强 年度表现。同时，铜价刷新历史高位至11952美元/吨，铂金因连续三年供应短缺，价格同步走高。 农产品期货价格则因动态的供需结构性矛盾，走势不一。玉米价格持续走高，小麦、大豆、豆油和豆粕在阶段性回落后发生转向，价格呈现一定的上扬趋 势。 2026年，在全球流动性变奏、地缘风险演变及产业需求转型等变量交织下，大宗商品价格会延续牛市行情，还是会发生转向？未来市场走向备受关注。 贵金属表现强势，白银"跑赢"黄金 今年年初，国际金价还在2600-2700美元/盎司的区间震荡，如今每盎司金价已经突破4550美元，年内涨幅超六成。白银的表现更是突出，年内价格累涨约 140%，涨幅"跑赢"黄金。随着白银的暴涨，金银比已经从今年年初的85:1收窄至70以下。 | — 纽约银主连 | 72.275 | 高 72.750 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent influx of over 8.2 billion yuan into the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by global monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to boost metal prices [1][5] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant investment activity, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries in terms of capital inflow [1] - The leading ETF in the non-ferrous metal sector, the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), has shown a strong performance, rising over 1.4% during intraday trading, with a trading volume exceeding 45 million yuan [1][6] Group 2 - In terms of specific stocks, lithium industry leaders have led the gains, with Yongxing Materials hitting the daily limit, and Tianqi Lithium rising over 6% [3] - Other notable performers include Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, both rising over 4%, while Zijin Mining increased by more than 1% [3] - The complete lithium product supply system in China has been highlighted, showcasing the country's competitive advantage in the lithium battery industry [5] Group 3 - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has a current scale of 537 million yuan, making it the largest among three similar products [8] - The ETF tracks a diversified index, with significant weightings in copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), which helps mitigate risks associated with investing in a single metal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 and the second consecutive cut since September 2023, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The rate cut is perceived as a form of monetary easing, leading to currency depreciation and prompting investors to favor tangible assets [1] - Most non-ferrous metals are priced in USD; thus, a weaker dollar makes these metals cheaper, increasing global demand [1] - Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, encouraging production expansion and boosting demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2: Domestic Non-Ferrous Metal Industry - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced that China has established a complete lithium product supply system, showcasing a comprehensive and scalable lithium battery industry chain [1] - China dominates the global market for basic lithium salts and key materials, creating a competitive industrial cluster with significant cost advantages [1] Group 3: Market Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - Dongwu Securities highlights that the lithium battery sector is thriving, with leading companies exceeding market expectations for 2026, and profitability in the battery sector is improving [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector is entering a supply-tightening phase, driven by increased demand for strategic metal resources amid global de-globalization trends [2] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) saw a significant price increase of 4.58% on October 29, with 52 out of 60 constituent stocks rising over 2% [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the sector's beta performance, as it tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index with significant weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and trends of various ETFs, highlighting the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector and the impact of Nvidia's announcements on the optical module industry [7]. Market Overview - The article mentions the launch of the first ETF focused on semiconductor technology, indicating a growing interest in this sector [1]. - The market temperature gauge shows that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have P/E ratios at 99.96%, 83%, and 50.95% respectively, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 9.441 billion in this sector, making it one of the top three sectors for capital inflow [2]. - The article lists the top-performing sectors, with non-ferrous metals up by 1.53%, while sectors like textiles and food and beverage showed declines [2]. Fund Performance - The article highlights the performance of various ETFs, with the non-ferrous metals ETF showing a 4.58% increase and a 68.39% rise over the past six months [5]. - The green energy ETF has also performed well, with a 49.64% increase over the same period [5]. Key Events - Nvidia's recent announcements at the GTC Keynote have confirmed the strong performance expectations for the optical module sector, which is expected to transition into a phase of earnings realization by 2026 [7]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by supply tightness and increased demand for strategic metal resources, positioning it as a core investment opportunity in the current market cycle [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on October 29, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which surged nearly 3% to a new yearly high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market saw accelerated rotation of hotspots, with cyclical sectors like metals and chemicals showing strong performance [1][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The leading ETF in the non-ferrous metals sector (159876) saw a significant increase of 4.58%, driven by multiple factors including supply-side optimization and demand recovery [1][4] - The chemical sector ETF (516020) also rose nearly 3%, with analysts recommending attention to the sector's elasticity and leading stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks within the non-ferrous metals ETF included Nanshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial, both hitting the daily limit up [4][6] Group 3: Broker Performance - The "bull market flag bearer" broker stocks surged, helping the Shanghai Composite Index maintain above 4000 points [1][9] - Major broker ETFs (512000) increased by nearly 2%, with significant net inflows of 4.56 billion yuan over the past five days [1][17] - Notable individual broker performances included Huazhang Securities and Northeast Securities, both reaching their daily limit up after strong quarterly results [11][13] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector - The Nvidia GTC conference sparked renewed interest in AI, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang reaching historical highs [2][19] - The AI-focused ETF (159363) closed up 0.65%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with significant net subscriptions of 94 million units [2][19] - Analysts noted that Nvidia's announcements confirmed the performance certainty of the optical module industry, which is expected to drive further growth in related stocks [19][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share market to maintain strong performance due to favorable macroeconomic policies and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to be a core component of the current slow bull market, supported by global pricing dynamics and domestic recovery expectations [6][7] - The broker sector is poised for a value reassessment as earnings continue to meet or exceed expectations, indicating potential for further upward movement [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant inflows, with over 15.8 billion in main funds entering the market, ranking second among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's leading ETF (159876) experienced a substantial increase of 4.58% in price, with a total trading volume of 64.88 million, reflecting a 35% increase in trading activity [1]. - Among the 60 constituent stocks of the non-ferrous metal ETF, 52 stocks rose over 2%, and 25 stocks increased by more than 5%. Notably, Nanshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial hit the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper and Western Superconducting surged over 9% [1][3]. - Key stocks such as China Aluminum, Northern Rare Earth, and Zijin Mining also showed significant gains, with increases of over 7%, 4%, and 3% respectively [1]. Group 2: Positive Factors - Macroeconomic factors are favorable, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weak employment data [3]. - The industry is experiencing price increases across various segments, with LME copper reaching an all-time high and LME aluminum hitting a three-year peak. Additionally, the price of tungsten has doubled this year, and lithium hexafluorophosphate has seen a nearly 60% increase in just over two weeks [3]. - The earnings reports from the non-ferrous metal sector are promising, with 40 out of 44 companies reporting profits, and 31 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit. Notably, Chuangjiang New Material reported a 20-fold increase in net profit [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is viewed as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid de-globalization trends [3]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach, tracking the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes significant weights in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [4]. - As of October 28, the ETF had a total scale of 544 million, making it the largest among three similar products [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 4000 points, is driven by strong gains in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors, indicating a bullish trend in these industries [1] Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 4.46%, with a trading volume exceeding 580 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] - Among the 60 constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF, 44 companies have reported Q3 results, with 40 achieving profitability and 31 showing year-on-year net profit growth [1] - Industry experts believe that non-ferrous metals are positioned as a key component in the current commodity bull market, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing global manufacturing investment [1] Group 2: Chemical Sector - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracked a significant upward trend, with a price increase of over 3% throughout the day, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The price-to-earnings ratio of the Chemical ETF's underlying index is 20.08, which is at a low point compared to the past decade, suggesting attractive long-term investment opportunities [2] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a recovery phase, with improving demand and low inventory levels, leading to a potential rebound in profitability [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metals Leader ETF provides diversification across various metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, making it suitable for portfolio allocation [2] - The Chemical ETF covers a wide range of sub-sectors within the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [3]