Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East situation remains tense and complex, with the conflict entering a costly war of attrition. The risk of financial market volatility persists, but the direct impact on the Asian economy may gradually weaken as Asian vessels gain passage through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices decline. The market is in a period of repeated fluctuations [3][11][12]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to focus on three main lines: sectors driven by domestic policies and in an upward industrial cycle, such as power grid equipment and lithium - battery materials; technology tracks with long - term growth potential and relatively low valuations, including computing infrastructure, semiconductor equipment and materials; and low - valuation value sectors like coal, chemicals, and finance. In the short term, it is advisable to control positions and seize structural opportunities while waiting for external risks to become clearer [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.03.23 - 2026.03.27), the A - share market was under short - term pressure due to external disturbances. The market adjusted significantly in the first half of the week and gradually recovered in the second half, with increased trading activity. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 21,093 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - The market hotspots were concentrated in sectors driven by fundamental improvements or external events. The top - performing industries included basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and pharmaceutical biology. Innovative drugs and lithium - battery new energy were the leading sectors throughout the week [11]. - The Middle East situation continued to evolve in a highly tense and complex manner. The conflict has entered a costly war of attrition, and there is a risk of the region falling into an all - out melee [11]. - In the short term, the Iran - US conflict may lead to repeated attacks before April 6, bringing significant volatility to the financial market. However, the direct impact on the Asian economy may gradually weaken [3][12]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.03.23 - 2026.03.27), the bond market oscillated and recovered. The yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.50BP, 1.27BP, and 3.84BP respectively, to 1.25%, 1.82%, and 2.35% [4][13]. - The US Treasury yield curve steepened. The 1 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3BP to 3.77%, the 2 - year yield remained flat, and the 10 - year yield increased by 5BP to 4.44% [14]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.83% last week, with warehousing logistics and industrial parks among the sectors with the largest declines. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress [14]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is roughly balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index [18]. - **Value - Oriented Equity Fund Selection**: The index includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification [18]. - **Balanced Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. Fund managers in this style balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and consider cost - effectiveness at the industry level [21]. - **Growth - Oriented Equity Fund Selection**: The index aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification [23][25]. - **Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds to form the index [27]. - **Consumer Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative consumer - related indices. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds to form the index [30]. - **Technology Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative technology - related indices. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds to form the index [34]. - **High - end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative high - end manufacturing indices. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds to form the index [37]. - **Cyclical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative cyclical indices. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds to form the index [39]. 2.2. Other Fund Indices - **Money - Market Enhancement Index**: The money - market enhancement strategy index aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that outperforms money - market funds, and is mainly configured with money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index [45]. - **Pure - Bond Index**: - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index aims for liquidity management and selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict回撤 control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is a combination of the short - term pure - bond fund index and the common money - market fund index [47]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling回撤. It selects 5 funds that balance coupon strategies and band - trading operations and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [50]. - **Fixed - Income Plus Index**: - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity central position of 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position (considering convertible bond and stock positions) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is a combination of the CSI 800 Index and the ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [53]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity central position of 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is a combination of the CSI 800 Index and the ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [55]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity central position of 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is a combination of the CSI 800 Index and the ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [56]. - **Other Pan - Fixed - Income Indices**: - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects 5 convertible - bond funds based on investment proportion requirements and an evaluation system considering fund product, fund manager, and fund company dimensions [61]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions [64]. - **REITs Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset types [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 2.90BP to 1.8170% compared with the previous week [2]. - The important concerns for the bond market next week are the release of core macro - data and the large supply of interest - rate bonds [3]. - The capital interest rate rebounded slightly, but the overall liquidity remained in a loose and balanced state, and the market leverage declined slightly from a high level. The central bank continued to net withdraw liquidity in the open market this week, and the capital interest rate center rose slightly compared with last week, while the overall liquidity was still loose and abundant. Meanwhile, institutional trading remained active, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly from a high level [4]. - In terms of primary bond supply, the net financing scale of interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit decreased significantly this week, showing an overall net repayment state. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased mainly due to the obvious reduction in the issuance of Treasury bonds and local bonds. The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned from positive to negative, with the net repayment scale of large - bank certificates of deposit increasing further and the net financing of joint - stock banks decreasing significantly [4]. - In terms of secondary market operation, the long - end was significantly pressured under the influence of a significant increase in the inflation center and export data far exceeding expectations, while the short - end continued to decline benefiting from the stable and loose capital market, and the yield curve steepened significantly [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Money Market 3.1.1. Open - market Liquidity Injection - The central bank net withdrew 25.11 billion yuan of liquidity from the open market this week (2026.03.9 - 2026.03.13). Specifically, the injection was 17.65 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and the withdrawals were 27.76 billion yuan from reverse - repurchase maturities and 15 billion yuan from the maturity of treasury cash fixed deposits. As of March 13, 2026, the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchases was 17.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.11 billion yuan compared with the previous week [11]. 3.1.2. Capital Market Operation - In terms of capital operation, the central bank continued to withdraw liquidity in the open market, and the capital interest rate center rose slightly compared with last week, but the overall liquidity was still loose and abundant. As of March 13, 2026, DR007 was 1.46%, up 4.67BP from the previous week, and R007 was 1.50%, up 1.13BP from the previous week. In terms of leverage, institutional trading remained active, and the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly from a high level. As of March 13, 2026, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5DMA basis) was 8.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.07 trillion yuan from the previous week [19]. 3.2. Cash Bond Market 3.2.1. Primary Supply - The total net supply scale of interest - rate bonds this week was - 8.6786 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.5065 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The cumulative net supply scale of interest - rate bonds this year as of this week was 265.264 billion yuan, among which Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 53.386 billion yuan, 2.003 billion yuan, and 209.875 billion yuan respectively. The net financing scale of certificates of deposit this week was - 11.306 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.464 billion yuan compared with the previous week. Specifically, the net supply scale of Treasury bonds was - 29.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.3 billion yuan; the net supply scale of policy - financial bonds was 14.4 billion yuan, an increase of 28.095 billion yuan; the net supply scale of local bonds was 6.3214 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.3015 billion yuan. The net financing scale of state - owned banks was - 14.958 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.827 billion yuan; the net financing scale of joint - stock banks was 3.652 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.637 billion yuan [33]. 3.2.2. Secondary Operation - **Absolute Level**: The long - end performed worse than the short - end, and the interest - rate curve continued to steepen. For example, the yield curves of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds tended to steepen. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly, the yield of 20Y China Development Bank bonds increased significantly, the yields of local bonds at all maturities increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all maturities decreased slightly [38][41][49]. - **Term Spread**: Most of the long - end term spreads widened, and the spread between 9M/1Y certificates of deposit compressed. For example, the 10Y - 1Y Treasury bond term spread and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, while the 1Y - 9M AAA certificate of deposit term spread narrowed [48][54]. - **Variety Spread**: All variety spreads narrowed this week. For example, the 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank/Treasury bond variety spreads, the 30Y local bond/Treasury bond variety spread, and the 1Y certificate of deposit/China Development Bank bond variety spread all narrowed [57]. - **Overseas Spread**: The 10Y China - US spread widened, and the 1Y China - US spread narrowed [62]. 3.3. Next Week's Bond Market Matters - On March 16 (Monday), 1 - 2 month economic data will be released, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the economic recovery at the beginning of the year exceeds market expectations. - On March 20 (Friday), the 3 - month LPR quote will be released, which is likely to be the same as the previous month. - On March 19 (Thursday), the issuance scale of local bonds over 10Y is about 7.26 billion yuan, and it is necessary to pay attention to the primary issuance situation. - In addition, there are specific situations of open - market operation maturities, Treasury bond supply, and local bond supply every day next week [3][4][66][68].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and market dynamics to seize investment opportunities in a complex environment [1][2] - The first session of the 2026 Bloomberg China Market Review focuses on signals from the Two Sessions and insights into the fixed income market [2][3] - Key topics include analysis of economic hotspots and signals from the Two Sessions, as well as discussions on convertible bonds and fixed income investments [3] Group 2 - The event is scheduled for March 12, 2026, from 16:00 to 17:00, featuring experts from Bloomberg [3] - Participants will gain insights from senior economists and industry researchers, enhancing their understanding of market trends [1][3] - Registration for the event requires a review process, and successful registrants will receive notifications via WeChat [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, reflecting a growing divergence within the sector [11][13]. - Key market factors influencing the performance of listed brokerages include a rebound in fixed income markets, record-high trading volumes, and significant growth in margin financing balances [7][30][31]. Summary by Sections January Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a decline of 1.49% compared to the CSI 300 index's increase of 1.65%, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics [14]. Key Market Factors Affecting January Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [18][23]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with total trading volume for the month at 60.90 trillion yuan, marking significant increases year-on-year [26][29]. - The margin financing balance reached 27.153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. February Performance Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see a decline in proprietary trading due to a cooling equity market and a seasonal drop in trading volumes [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to experience continued weakness, with a potential drop in valuations to 1.3x P/B presenting a re-entry opportunity for investors [7][40]. - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is projected to decline to relative lows not seen in the past 12 months, influenced by seasonal factors [7][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January 2026 but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, leading to a higher average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.426 and 1.541 times [5][11][14]. - The overall market conditions for January 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in trading volumes and a record high in margin financing balances, indicating a robust trading environment despite the sector's overall weakness [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2026 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a 1.49% decline, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541 times, reflecting a slight increase in valuation [14]. - A total trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan was recorded, marking a 40.1% increase month-on-month [9]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting January 2026 Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of mild recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [7][18]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a total monthly trading volume of 60.90 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in brokerage activity [26]. - Margin financing balances reached 27,153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. 3. February 2026 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - Proprietary trading is expected to decline due to a cooling equity market, while brokerage activity may experience a seasonal drop in performance [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to face continued weakness, with a potential drop in overall monthly performance expected to return to relative lows seen in the previous 12 months [7][45]. - The report suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it may present a good opportunity for re-entry, particularly for leading firms with strong wealth management capabilities [7].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and market dynamics to seize investment opportunities in a complex environment [1][2] - The first session of the 2026 Bloomberg China Market Webinar series will focus on key economic signals from the Two Sessions and insights into the fixed income market [2][3] - Key topics include analysis of economic hotspots and signals from the Two Sessions, as well as discussions on convertible bonds and fixed income investments [3] Group 2 - The event is scheduled for March 12, 2026, from 16:00 to 17:00, featuring experts from Bloomberg [3] - Participants will gain insights from senior economists and industry researchers, enhancing their understanding of market trends [1][3] - Registration for the event requires a review process, and successful registrants will receive notifications via WeChat [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses optimism about the Chinese economy's resilience and the capital market's potential for growth in 2026, emphasizing a commitment to client-centric investment management and wealth creation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - By the end of 2025, China's GDP is projected to achieve a growth target of 5%, with exports exceeding expectations, contributing to global economic recovery [3]. - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with major indices rebounding over 15 months and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company plans to leverage a combination of fiscal leadership, stable exchange rates, and supportive monetary policies to navigate the economic landscape [4]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in the equity market, shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, particularly in sectors like AI and cyclical industries [4]. - The fixed income market is expected to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with convertible bonds likely benefiting from equity market trends [4]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its research and investment capabilities to provide sustainable returns across various market conditions [5]. - A comprehensive product service system will be developed to meet market trends and client needs, focusing on pension solutions and lifecycle investment products [5]. - A robust risk management framework will be established to protect investors' interests, ensuring transparency and compliance [5]. - The company will upgrade investor engagement services through diverse channels, promoting long-term and value-based investment philosophies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the low interest rate environment and the profitability of the equity market are driving residents to gradually increase their investments in equities, benefiting brokerage firms across various business lines [1] Group 1: Market Trends - By December 2025, the asset allocation of residents is expected to primarily focus on deposits, with a marginal increase in equity investments. The total market for wealth management products available to residents is projected to reach 352.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.05% and a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [2] - The equity market is performing well, with rising returns on equity assets, while fixed income asset yields are experiencing volatility. The 10-year government bond yield has increased by 0.61 basis points, and the CSI All Bond Index has decreased by 0.07 [2] - Major indices in the equity market have shown positive performance, with stock fund indices, mixed fund indices, bond fund indices, and money market fund indices increasing by 2.12%, 3.28%, 0.17%, and 0.11% respectively [2] Group 2: Fund Performance - The total market size of public funds reached 37.7 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.88%. The sizes of stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and QDII have increased by 4.39%, 2.13%, 3.92%, and 1.64% respectively [3] - New fund issuance in December amounted to 113.22 billion units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.72%. However, the issuance of equity funds decreased by 10.73%, while bond fund issuance increased by 136.82% [3] - The private fund market has seen a significant increase in new registrations, with the total size of private funds reaching 22.2 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.27%. The new registration scale for private funds was 98.9 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter change of 38.6% [3] Group 3: Banking and Insurance - In December, the total amount of bank wealth management products decreased by 235.61 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.81%. The changes in equity, fixed income, and cash management categories were -1.74 billion, -188.54 billion, and +1.88 billion yuan respectively [4] - Insurance companies reported premium income of 400.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Life insurance premiums increased by 8.8%, while property insurance premiums rose by 4.4% [4] - The total amount of household deposits in RMB reached 165.89 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.58% [4]

Group 1: Fund Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 255 amortized cost bond funds with a total net asset value of approximately CNY 2.04 trillion, an increase of about CNY 612 billion from Q3 2025[4] - The total asset value of these funds is around CNY 2.78 trillion[4] - The average duration of bonds held by these funds is typically less than their closed period, which ranges from 3 to over 5 years[4] Group 2: Credit Bond Allocation - By the end of 2025, the allocation to credit bonds in amortized cost bond funds significantly increased, with non-financial credit bonds rising from 1% to 24%[17] - The market value of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% to 54% of the total allocation[17] - The core allocation among non-financial credit bonds is mid-term notes, which account for 14% of the total bond investment, with a market value of CNY 3,755.77 billion, an increase of CNY 3,675.85 billion from 2024[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - In Q1 2026, the cumulative opening scale of amortized cost bond funds is expected to reach approximately CNY 3,739.7 billion, with a peak in openings anticipated[10] - The ongoing opening of these funds is expected to provide continuous incremental demand for the credit bond market, potentially leading to differentiated performance among various credit bond types[4] - The strategy should focus on 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities[27]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent concentration of open-ended amortized cost bond funds may support the credit bond market, with a total net asset value of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan as of the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of about 61.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4][9][10] - The report indicates a significant shift in the asset allocation of these funds from primarily interest rate bonds to credit bonds due to limited options in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in credit bond allocation expected in 2024-2025 [4][9][17] - The anticipated peak of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to reach approximately 3739.7 billion yuan, with a focus on bonds with maturities of over five years in January and February, and shorter maturities in March [10][4] Group 2 - The report details that the market share of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% at the end of 2024 to 54% by the end of 2025, while the share of non-financial credit bonds surged from 1% to 24%, indicating a significant reallocation towards credit bonds [17][18] - The core asset in the credit bond allocation is medium-term notes, which accounted for 14.11% of the total bond investment market value, with a holding value of approximately 375.6 billion yuan, marking an increase of 3675.85 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17][18] - The report emphasizes that the open-ended amortized cost bond funds are likely to continue influencing the credit bond market, with a focus on 3-5 year maturity credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, as they seek to manage duration mismatch risks [27][4][9]