分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 证券Ⅱ zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2026 年 1 月回顾及 2 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾及 2026 年 | 1 月前瞻》 2026-01-28 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 11 月 | | 回顾及 12 月前瞻》 | 2025-12-26 | | | 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 | 2025 年 | 10 月 | | 回顾及 11 月前瞻》 | 2025-11-25 | | 联系人：李智 ⚫ 券商板块 2026 年 1 月行情回顾：1 月券商指数尝试转强但以失败 告终，全月在各行业指数中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a synchronized performance with the market [1]. Core Insights - The brokerage index attempted to strengthen in January 2026 but ultimately failed, resulting in a decline of 1.49%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.65% [5][8]. - The brokerage sector experienced increased differentiation, with a notable number of stocks outperforming the brokerage index, leading to a higher average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.426 and 1.541 times [5][11][14]. - The overall market conditions for January 2026 were characterized by a significant increase in trading volumes and a record high in margin financing balances, indicating a robust trading environment despite the sector's overall weakness [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. January 2026 Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index's performance was weak, with a 1.49% decline, ranking 28th among 30 industry indices [5][8]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.426 and 1.541 times, reflecting a slight increase in valuation [14]. - A total trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan was recorded, marking a 40.1% increase month-on-month [9]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting January 2026 Performance - The equity market faced resistance after an initial rise, while the fixed income market showed signs of mild recovery, contributing to a rebound in proprietary trading [7][18]. - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 3.05 trillion yuan, with a total monthly trading volume of 60.90 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in brokerage activity [26]. - Margin financing balances reached 27,153 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.9% month-on-month increase and a 53.1% year-on-year increase [30]. 3. February 2026 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - Proprietary trading is expected to decline due to a cooling equity market, while brokerage activity may experience a seasonal drop in performance [7][40]. - The brokerage index is anticipated to face continued weakness, with a potential drop in overall monthly performance expected to return to relative lows seen in the previous 12 months [7][45]. - The report suggests that if the brokerage sector's valuation drops to 1.3x P/B, it may present a good opportunity for re-entry, particularly for leading firms with strong wealth management capabilities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses optimism about the Chinese economy's resilience and the capital market's potential for growth in 2026, emphasizing a commitment to client-centric investment management and wealth creation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - By the end of 2025, China's GDP is projected to achieve a growth target of 5%, with exports exceeding expectations, contributing to global economic recovery [3]. - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with major indices rebounding over 15 months and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company plans to leverage a combination of fiscal leadership, stable exchange rates, and supportive monetary policies to navigate the economic landscape [4]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in the equity market, shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, particularly in sectors like AI and cyclical industries [4]. - The fixed income market is expected to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with convertible bonds likely benefiting from equity market trends [4]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its research and investment capabilities to provide sustainable returns across various market conditions [5]. - A comprehensive product service system will be developed to meet market trends and client needs, focusing on pension solutions and lifecycle investment products [5]. - A robust risk management framework will be established to protect investors' interests, ensuring transparency and compliance [5]. - The company will upgrade investor engagement services through diverse channels, promoting long-term and value-based investment philosophies [5].

国泰海通发布研报称，低利率环境和权益市场赚钱效应形成，居民资金入市稳步推进；券商各业务均受 益于增量资金入市。居民无论是以直接入市还是间接入市的方式增配权益，券商都将受益。国泰海通认 为：1)渠道端从垂直流量走向公域流量，更适应业态转型的券商预计更优；2)固收+商将以两预计成为 本轮居民增量入市的核心抓手，股债能力并重，更看好参控股头部公募的券商。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 私募基金/资管：私募基金新发环比高增。12月末私募基金存量规模22.2万亿元，环比增长0.27%，私募 基金新备案规模989.0亿元，环比变动+38.6%。12月私募资管存量规模12.3万亿元，环比变动-1.65%， 其中权益类、固收类、商品及金融衍生品类、混合类规模分别同比变动-2.35%、-4.11%、+73.61%、 +38.69%；12月私募资管新发规模达819.3亿元，环比变动-3.86%。 理财/保险/存款：12月银行理财份额增量-2356.1亿元，份额环比-0.81%，其中权益类、固收类、现金管 理类增量分别为-17.4、-1885.4、+18.8亿元；保险公司保费收入4007亿元，同比变动+7.2%，其中寿险 保费收入同比+ ...

Group 1: Fund Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 255 amortized cost bond funds with a total net asset value of approximately CNY 2.04 trillion, an increase of about CNY 612 billion from Q3 2025[4] - The total asset value of these funds is around CNY 2.78 trillion[4] - The average duration of bonds held by these funds is typically less than their closed period, which ranges from 3 to over 5 years[4] Group 2: Credit Bond Allocation - By the end of 2025, the allocation to credit bonds in amortized cost bond funds significantly increased, with non-financial credit bonds rising from 1% to 24%[17] - The market value of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% to 54% of the total allocation[17] - The core allocation among non-financial credit bonds is mid-term notes, which account for 14% of the total bond investment, with a market value of CNY 3,755.77 billion, an increase of CNY 3,675.85 billion from 2024[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - In Q1 2026, the cumulative opening scale of amortized cost bond funds is expected to reach approximately CNY 3,739.7 billion, with a peak in openings anticipated[10] - The ongoing opening of these funds is expected to provide continuous incremental demand for the credit bond market, potentially leading to differentiated performance among various credit bond types[4] - The strategy should focus on 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities[27]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent concentration of open-ended amortized cost bond funds may support the credit bond market, with a total net asset value of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan as of the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of about 61.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4][9][10] - The report indicates a significant shift in the asset allocation of these funds from primarily interest rate bonds to credit bonds due to limited options in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in credit bond allocation expected in 2024-2025 [4][9][17] - The anticipated peak of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to reach approximately 3739.7 billion yuan, with a focus on bonds with maturities of over five years in January and February, and shorter maturities in March [10][4] Group 2 - The report details that the market share of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% at the end of 2024 to 54% by the end of 2025, while the share of non-financial credit bonds surged from 1% to 24%, indicating a significant reallocation towards credit bonds [17][18] - The core asset in the credit bond allocation is medium-term notes, which accounted for 14.11% of the total bond investment market value, with a holding value of approximately 375.6 billion yuan, marking an increase of 3675.85 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17][18] - The report emphasizes that the open-ended amortized cost bond funds are likely to continue influencing the credit bond market, with a focus on 3-5 year maturity credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, as they seek to manage duration mismatch risks [27][4][9]

(ID中信保诚基金了! 中信保诚稳悦债券A TOP5 (5/1002) - 告 mmun E 指导 中信保诚基金 2025Q4 成绩单 固定收益篇 探寻稳进更优解 2025年,固收市场在"股债晓晓板"效应、政策预期与宏 观经济叙事的多重博弈中,步入了高波动的震荡格局。 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳泰债券A 前15% (79/555) 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳健债券A 前20% (59/300) 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 004102 ill 经信 004108 003226 投资者对"低利率"环境的感受尤为深刻,固收+基金优势 出显。 复杂的市场情况,是基金公司投研能力的"试金石"。 在此背景下,中信保诚基金持续为投资者筑牢资产配置 的底仓,多种策略债基均取得亮眼回报。 利率指数 中信保诚中债0-2年政策性金融债指数A 020165 前8% (12/164) 近一年 利率债指数债券型基金(A类) 同类基金 推会成本法 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚景丰债券A 前17% (162/1002) 中信保诚嘉润66个月定期开放债券 010462 前20% ...

与此同时，"固收+"产品分类愈发精细化，从含权仓位到回撤控制的差异，对基金公司的人才队伍、投研体系提出了更高标准。 为了探寻企业界、金融界破局引路的标杆力量，"见未来·2025第八届金禧奖年度评选"如期而至。自标点财经研究院联合《投资时报》、投资时间网于 2018年首次举办"见未来"系列论坛以来，至2025年，"见未来"系列活动及金禧奖年度评选已进入第八届。据了解，"金禧奖"由标点财经研究院等第三方研 究机构对数千家企业大数据展开分析、比较后，客观评选出各领域最具竞争力的企业和机构，形成候选综合排名榜单，再经媒体记者、研究员团队集体调 研，由评审组最终审核确定。 多年来，诸多优秀企业与金融机构在活动中获得了表彰和肯定，极大地提升了企业的品牌价值和市场影响力。 经过数轮激烈的竞争与细致的遴选，这份荣誉的归属终于尘埃落定。最终，平安基金管理有限公司、浦银安盛基金管理有限公司、东方基金管理股份有限 公司脱颖而出，摘得"2025优秀固收类基金团队"奖项。 投资时间网、标点财经研究员 李翠枝 产品分类愈发精细化，对基金公司的人才队伍、投研体系提出了更高标准 2025年，固收市场迎来了震荡的一年。内外部环境交织下，债市清 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [52] Core Insights - The brokerage sector index experienced a range-bound fluctuation in October 2025, with a decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [4][7] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.510 and 1.580 times, closing at 1.510 times at the end of October [11] - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is expected to decline in November 2025, with a forecasted drop to mid-low levels for the year [47][48] Summary by Sections 1. October 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index maintained a range-bound fluctuation with a significant reduction in volatility, closing down 0.73% for the month [4][7] - A total of 42 listed brokerages saw 17 increase in stock prices, with notable gains from Dongxing Securities (10.08%) and Changjiang Securities (6.27%) [8] - The average P/B ratio for the sector was 1.510 times, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [11] 2. Key Market Factors Affecting October 2025 Performance - Increased volatility in equity markets and a rebound in fixed income markets led to a decline in proprietary trading performance [6] - The average daily trading volume in October was 21,640 billion, down 10.5% month-on-month [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,864 billion, reflecting a stable outlook among investors [32] 3. November 2025 Performance Outlook - Proprietary trading is expected to face pressure due to a comprehensive market correction, with a forecasted decline in monthly investment returns [40][43] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see a slight recovery in brokerage business due to an increase in trading days, despite a decrease in average daily trading volume [44] - The investment banking sector is expected to remain stable, with equity financing slightly declining and debt financing rebounding [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector index has shown signs of further downward adjustment, with a significant gap from the average valuation since 2016 [48] - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [50]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF (511200) is experiencing a slight increase in value, reflecting a supportive policy environment despite concerns about medium-term inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 3rd, the credit bond ETF (511200) rose by 0.02% during early trading, reaching a scale of 19.909 billion yuan [1] - The current market conditions suggest that the fixed income market still has room for rebound, despite the ongoing concerns regarding inflation [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - According to Guojin Securities, the 10-year yield is expected to find a temporary bottom around 1.7%, while the 30-year yield is projected to be approximately 2.0% [1] - The analysis indicates that the interest rates are in a rebound continuation window, influenced by the current loose monetary policy [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The credit bond ETF (511200) consists of 364 underlying bonds, all of which are AAA-rated and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The bonds are primarily issued by high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, with maturities ranging from 0 to 30 years, covering various durations including ultra-short, short, medium, long, and ultra-long [1]