分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 10 月回顾及 11 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -16% -11% -5% 1% 6% 12% 18% 23% 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：投融资协调发展，行 业景气度延续》 2025-11-24 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 9 月回 顾及 10 月前瞻》 2025-10-28 《证券Ⅱ行业专题研究：创 2016 年以来最佳 半年度经营业绩》 2025-09-29 联系人：李智 ⚫ 券商板块 2025 年 10 月行情回顾：10 月券商指数维持区间震荡， 全月波动率明显收敛。中信二级行业指数证券Ⅱ全月下跌 0.73%， 跑输沪深 300 指数（平盘）0.73 个百分点。10 月券商板块跌多涨 少，个股表现分化，全月跑赢券商指数的个股数量环比有所减少， 板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF (511200) is experiencing a slight increase in value, reflecting a supportive policy environment despite concerns about medium-term inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 3rd, the credit bond ETF (511200) rose by 0.02% during early trading, reaching a scale of 19.909 billion yuan [1] - The current market conditions suggest that the fixed income market still has room for rebound, despite the ongoing concerns regarding inflation [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - According to Guojin Securities, the 10-year yield is expected to find a temporary bottom around 1.7%, while the 30-year yield is projected to be approximately 2.0% [1] - The analysis indicates that the interest rates are in a rebound continuation window, influenced by the current loose monetary policy [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The credit bond ETF (511200) consists of 364 underlying bonds, all of which are AAA-rated and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The bonds are primarily issued by high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, with maturities ranging from 0 to 30 years, covering various durations including ultra-short, short, medium, long, and ultra-long [1]

Core Insights - The forum provided unique perspectives on the reasons for the impediment in the decline of interest rates and future outlook, covering new patterns in monetary and fiscal policies, evolution of the bond market's microstructure, and experiences from rising overseas interest rates [2] Agenda Highlights - The agenda included discussions on new trends in monetary policy for 2025 and outlook for 2026, led by a professor from Renmin University [3] - A session focused on changes in low interest rate expectations, exploring the causes and initiating new strategies, presented by the head of fixed income research at Guotai Junan Securities [4] - Roundtable discussions addressed strategies for asset allocation amidst low interest rate rebounds, featuring chief investment officers and managers from various financial institutions [4] - Another roundtable examined the prospects and investment strategies of bond ETFs, with participation from directors and managers of prominent funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing market volatility in 2023 has led to a significant structural differentiation in the A-share market, with investors seeking stability and yield flexibility in asset allocation, making "fixed income +" funds a focal point in the wealth management market [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Shangyin Fengrui One-Year Holding Mixed Fund A achieved a net value growth rate of 9.46% over the past year, significantly outperforming its benchmark return of 4.31% [2] - Since its inception in December 2023, the fund's net value growth rate reached 18.65%, compared to a benchmark return of 7.49%, indicating a clear excess return [2] - The fund ranks in the top 14% for one-year performance among its peers, with a maximum drawdown of -2.34%, well below the average of -4.78% for similar products [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Shangyin Fengyi Mixed Fund A reported a net value growth rate of 6.34% over the past six months, with a one-year growth rate of 13.25%, far exceeding its benchmark of 4.94% [3] - The fund's stock allocation is 28.22% of total assets, leveraging the advantages of fixed income + products to enhance returns through selective stock picking [3] - The fund manager emphasizes a proactive investment strategy, focusing on sectors with growth potential such as gaming, semiconductors, and healthcare, while also incorporating convertible bonds to enhance yield flexibility [3][4] Group 3: Research and Market Outlook - Shangyin Fund has established a robust research framework, focusing on risk control and long-term stability, with a comprehensive investment research center [5] - The fund anticipates a stable macroeconomic environment, with a focus on sectors like big finance, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI applications, as well as resource commodities like gold and copper [6]

Core Viewpoint - The equity market continues to show a rebound trend from the "9.24" rally, while the fixed income market experiences fluctuations in a historically low-risk interest rate environment. Overall, various fund indices have yielded positive results in the first half of 2025 [1]. Equity Market - In the second half of 2025, the equity market is expected to face downward pressure but is supported by a stable economic fundamental. The introduction of further reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board by the CSRC in June is anticipated to maintain market activity, although external complexities and domestic demand pressures may lead to a primarily fluctuating stock market with an upward central tendency [5]. - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and AI applications [5]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Yang Jiannan highlights the promising outlook for the pharmaceutical sector driven by innovative drugs, with domestic companies increasingly entering global markets through licensing agreements [6]. - Fund Manager Chen Bo emphasizes the rapid development of new productive forces, including AI and high-end manufacturing, and the rising penetration of spiritual consumption products [7]. - Fund Manager Lu Yang notes that large-cap indices have rebounded to median valuations, and investment strategies will focus on bottom-up stock selection based on industry competition and company performance [8]. Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is characterized by a pragmatic approach, with limited expectations for significant interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to prioritize the stability of the banking system's liabilities and optimize policies based on macro-prudential principles [9]. - The market is likely to see a focus on short-term rates and credit products, with convertible bonds standing out due to their dual advantages in a resilient stock market [9]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund Manager Cai Weifeng reports a mixed strategy in the bond market, achieving moderate net value growth despite a challenging environment [10]. - Fund Manager Chen Fangfei observes that the bond market experienced fluctuations, with the central bank's actions providing some support, while maintaining a high duration strategy [12]. - Fund Manager Xu Jia notes that external risks have influenced bond market trends, with a focus on internal economic conditions as the market stabilizes [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market activity of the credit bond ETF, Bosera (159396), which has seen a slight increase and is experiencing active trading with a recent price of 100.9 yuan and a turnover rate of 21.69% [3] - The credit bond ETF Bosera has achieved a new high in scale, reaching 90.75 billion yuan, and ranks in the top quarter among comparable funds [3] - The fund has also seen a significant increase in shares, with the latest share count at 90.01 million, marking a three-month high and placing it in the top quarter of comparable funds [3] Group 2 - In terms of capital inflow, the credit bond ETF Bosera has experienced continuous net inflows over the past nine days, totaling 1.49 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 702 million yuan [4] - The fund has been consistently attracting leveraged capital, with a latest financing balance of 5.5 billion yuan [4] - The fund's performance metrics indicate a strong profitability record, with a monthly profit percentage of 75% and a historical three-month holding profit probability of 100% [4] Group 3 - The credit bond ETF Bosera has a low management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, which are among the lowest in its category [4] - The tracking accuracy of the fund is notable, with a tracking error of only 0.009% year-to-date, the highest among comparable funds [4] - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a recovery period of 26 days [4]