行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货2月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.930 | 112.930 | 112.360 | 112.350 | -0.570 | -0.50 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply in January showed a return to front - loaded efforts, with increased issuance volume and a longer - term structure. The incremental supply mainly came from local bonds. The overall supply pressure in the first quarter remained high, with front - loaded rhythm and longer duration characteristics. The core of the phased impact was the increase in supply concentration and the rise in the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds. Although the primary market enthusiasm for bonds has limited recovery, the carrying capacity is temporarily stable, and the issuance and carrying environment will improve with the return of potential allocation forces. Attention should be paid to the micro - situation's impact on primary pricing and secondary sentiment in the short term, and the demand change trend of the term structure under the normal state of high supply in the medium term [2][4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. January Government Bond Supply: Return of Front - Loaded Efforts and Longer Issuance Terms - **Scale and Rhythm**: In January 2026, the government bond issuance volume increased significantly compared to the same period last year, with a front - loaded trend. The total net financing was about 115.619 billion yuan, of which local bond net financing was about 72.944 billion yuan, contributing most of the incremental supply. Compared with the average level from 2020 to 2024, the net financing in January 2026 was slightly higher [9]. - **Term Structure**: In January 2026, the supply of treasury bonds showed an overall increase in all terms, with the medium - and long - term becoming the main increment. The proportion of 30 - year treasury bonds in the total issuance continued to decline. For local bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly year - on - year, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remained stable, and the weighted term increased from 16.4 years to 17.7 years, indicating that the market carrying pressure was more concentrated on 30 - year ultra - long - term varieties [10][12]. - **Issuance Tendering**: In January 2026, the issuance of local bonds remained stable, but the intensity of capital participation declined. The overall multiple of local bond issuance tenders decreased, and the issuance relied more on passive funds. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds converged, indicating that the supply - demand relationship of local ultra - long - term bonds remained relatively stable [13][15]. 2. Outlook for the First Quarter: The Duration Pressure on the Supply Side Needs to be Re - balanced - **Issuance Plan**: In 2026, the total government bond supply will remain high. The net financing of treasury bonds in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of 50 - 150 billion yuan, and the net financing of local bonds is expected to be 245 - 247 billion yuan per quarter. The issuance intensity of treasury bonds is adjusted through single - period scale, and attention should be paid to the planned scale of the 2 - year treasury bond issued on February 4. The expected issuance scale of local bonds from January to March is about 244 billion yuan, with a front - high and back - low net financing characteristic. The subsequent local bonds may continue the high - duration issuance feature, and the demand side will be under continuous pressure [16][18]. - **Institutional Demand**: The equity allocation of insurance funds has a phased squeezing effect on the ultra - long - term, but there is marginal repair space. The allocation of insurance funds to ultra - long - term local bonds has strong seasonality, and the buying intensity usually recovers gradually during the year. The expansion of the insurance liability side provides a basis for subsequent bond allocation. The potential expansion space of the insurance side can support the subsequent ultra - long - term supply [20][23]. - **Spread Comparison**: Since January 2026, the pricing of ultra - long - term local bonds has shown the characteristics of spread convergence and stable repair of issuance interest rates. The deviation between the issuance interest rate and the secondary market yield of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed, and the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has fallen back to the historical average range, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is gradually re - balanced [26]. - **Policy Tone**: The 2026 fiscal policy continues to be more proactive, with high - intensity in total amount, more focused in structure, stronger efficiency orientation, and parallel debt reduction and development. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and structure of fiscal incremental arrangements and the subsequent issuance plan [27].

作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨方海平 2 0 2 5年4月2 4日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2 0 2 5年4 月2 5日（周五），将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6 0 0 0亿元MLF操作，期 限为1年期。 2 0 2 5年中央金融机构注资特别国债也于4月2 4日启动发行，发行金额为1 6 5 0亿元，发行期限 为5年期，加权中标利率1 . 4 5%。 来源：财政部网站 根据前期公布的发行安排，2 0 2 5年中央金融机构注资特别国债共4只，其中2只为5年期、2只 为7年期。据财政部此前介绍，2 0 2 5年，财政部将发行首批特别国债5 0 0 0亿元，积极支持中 国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、中国邮政储蓄银行补充核心一级资本。此次资本补充工 作将按照市场化、法治化原则稳妥推进。 曾在央行货币政策司公开市场业务处任职的中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，政府债供 给高峰临近，央行宽货币发力旨在维护流动性充裕。一方面，4月以来资金面相对宽松，但下 周劳动节假期将至，资金可能面临一定的跨节压力。 另一方面，第一批超长期特别国债和中 央金融机构注资特别国债的发行已于4月2 ...

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 我们测算二季度国债净融资规模约1 . 7 7万亿元，较往年同期高出约7 0 0 0亿元；地方债总发行规模为2 . 8万亿元，净发行规模约2 万亿元。货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降准、扩大公开市场操作 规模等方式增加流动性供给。但短期来看，政策余量充足而不急于全部落地，结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济数据超预期，汇 率压力仍存等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ▍ 一季度政府债供给情况。 国债方面，一季度净融资规模超过1 . 4万亿元，占全年计划6 . 6 6万亿元的2 2%。由于全年计划发行规模较大，因此即便在一季 度发行进度明显快于往年同期，剩余发行额度仍然超过5万亿元，远高于往年同期剩余额度的水平。地方债方面，一季度地方 政府债券发行规模达2 . 8 4万亿元，创历史新高，其中特殊再融资债贡献主要增量，新增债发行偏慢。 ▍ 二季度政府债供给预测。 ▍ 风险因素： 货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于当日发布的《 晨会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险 ...