Q&A 双十一化妆品前瞻系列之淘系头部 kol 专家交流 20250921 摘要 李佳琦直播间成交额逐年增长，618 大促预计 2025 年达 70-80 亿元， 双十一在 2023 年达 150 亿元后，2024 年略有下滑至 120 亿元， 2025 年招商已启动。 美妆品类仍是核心，贡献直播间 55%-60%的成交额，但占比从 2021 年近 70%逐渐下降，家居家纺、服饰等品类占比提升，呈现多元化趋势。 美妆市场国货品牌占比逐年提升，外资品牌占比连年下降，2025 年已 降至 45%左右，首次低于 50%，主要归因于国内产品力、供应链及性 价比提升。 年轻消费者对国际品牌接受度降低，更注重情感因素和性价比，品牌选 择不再单纯依赖品牌影响力。直播间费用率方面，国货与外资品牌趋于 持平。 国际品牌直播间折扣力度从 2021-2022 年的五折以下趋于稳定， 2024-2025 年维持在五折左右，通过赠送小样实现，而国产品牌价格 机制持续加深。 能否回溯一下佳琪直播间过去几年的 618 和双十一的整体成交金额及美妆品类 的表现？ 从 2021 年到 2025 年，佳琪直播间在 618 和双十一的成交金额逐年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic beauty brands in China is breaking the monopoly of international brands, with the IPO of Plant Doctor marking a significant milestone in this trend [1][12]. Group 1: Company Overview - Plant Doctor has been established since 1994, focusing on high-altitude plant skincare products, which has allowed it to carve out a unique market position [3]. - The brand's core positioning is "High-altitude plants, pure beauty," emphasizing its commitment to Chinese ingredients and brand identity [3]. Group 2: Product Development - Plant Doctor has developed a competitive product matrix, including various high-altitude plant series such as "Dendrobium Tightening and Anti-wrinkle" and "Cordyceps Revitalizing Luxury," catering to diverse consumer needs [3]. - The company offers a wide range of products, including lotions, creams, serums, and masks, showcasing strong product innovation capabilities [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 2.12 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.16 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit increasing from 158 million to 243 million yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24% [5]. - This financial performance underscores Plant Doctor's solid market position and growth potential, providing a strong foundation for its IPO [5]. Group 4: Channel Strategy - Plant Doctor has established a robust online and offline channel strategy, with 4,328 retail stores by the end of 2024, enhancing consumer access and service experience [6]. - The brand has received recognition as a leading single-brand skincare store globally, further boosting its IPO prospects [6]. Group 5: Online Presence - The company has actively developed its online presence through platforms like JD, Tmall, Douyin, and Kuaishou, which has significantly contributed to its market share [8]. - Plant Doctor was recognized as the leading single-brand cosmetics store in China by 2024, enhancing its brand strength [8]. Group 6: Research and Development - Plant Doctor emphasizes R&D, with a dual approach of independent and collaborative research, and has established a research center with the Kunming Institute of Botany [10]. - The company holds 212 patents, including 59 invention patents, and has consistently invested in R&D, accounting for approximately 3% of its revenue [10]. Group 7: IPO Fund Utilization - The 998 million yuan raised from the IPO will be allocated to marketing, brand building, R&D center construction, production technology upgrades, and information system enhancements [12]. - These investments are expected to strengthen the company's brand influence, R&D capabilities, and operational efficiency, fueling future growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The beauty market in the first half of 2025 shows a mixed performance, with a historical high in retail sales but a decline in certain segments, indicating a competitive and structurally adjusting market landscape [2][5][29]. Retail Performance - The retail sales of cosmetics in China reached 229.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, which is lower than the overall retail growth of 5% [2][6]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of cosmetics experienced a 2.3% year-on-year decline, marking the first month of decline this year [2]. Online Sales Dynamics - Online beauty sales exceeded 300 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% and a transaction volume increase of over 10% [5][9]. - The five major e-commerce platforms (Taobao, JD, Douyin, Kuaishou, Pinduoduo) achieved a total transaction amount of 3210.75 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.59% [9][10]. Category Performance - Skincare remains the largest category with a transaction amount of 1971.82 million yuan, accounting for 64.4% of total online beauty sales, showing growth of 8.17% in transaction value [12][13]. - Makeup sales increased by 15.26% to 551.81 million yuan, while hair care emerged as a strong performer with a 20.67% increase in sales [15][29]. - Oral care saw a slight increase of 2.49% in transaction value but a decline in transaction volume, indicating a trend towards premiumization [15][19]. Brand Landscape - The top three brands in the beauty sector are L'Oréal, Proya, and Han Shu, with domestic brands making significant inroads but still trailing behind international brands in market share [21][23]. - In the makeup category, domestic brands captured 11 out of the top 20 positions, with notable performances from brands like Mao Geping and Huaxizi [26]. Market Trends - The rise of men's beauty products and refined personal care categories indicates a shift in consumer preferences, with significant growth in men's skincare and hair care [20][29]. - The overall market is experiencing structural adjustments, with brands needing to adapt to changing consumer demands and competitive pressures [29].

Core Insights - The luxury skincare brands Helena and La Mer are facing significant challenges in reputation and sales during the 618 shopping festival, with Helena's pricing error leading to order cancellations and La Mer criticized for its simplistic packaging [3][4][7] - Despite high sales rankings on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, both brands are experiencing declining sales in China, as indicated by L'Oréal's financial reports showing a downturn in their luxury cosmetics division [7][8] - The high-end beauty market is increasingly dominated by foreign brands, while domestic brands are gaining traction, leading to a shift in consumer preferences and loyalty [8][10] Sales Performance and Market Trends - Helena and La Mer ranked first and fourth respectively in the Douyin pre-sale rankings, but their performance is overshadowed by growing consumer dissatisfaction [7] - L'Oréal's financial data indicates that Helena's luxury cosmetics segment is underperforming, with sales declines for brands like Helena and Lancôme in China [8] - The luxury beauty market is experiencing a dual decline in reputation and sales, with brands like La Prairie also reporting significant drops in revenue [8] Consumer Behavior and Brand Strategy - High-value consumers are increasingly turning to medical beauty and professional skincare brands, leading to a decline in loyalty towards traditional luxury brands [19][30] - Brands are attempting to target middle-tier consumers by collaborating with influencers and creating engaging content, but face challenges in retaining loyalty from high-end consumers [12][15] - The shift in consumer focus towards ingredient efficacy and transparency is undermining the traditional storytelling approach of luxury brands [17][38] Pricing and Distribution Challenges - The pricing strategies of Helena and La Mer have become chaotic, with significant discounts available through duty-free channels, undermining their premium image [21][22] - Internal issues within Estée Lauder's operations have led to price wars between online and offline channels, further complicating brand positioning [22][23] - Reports of unauthorized discounting and product quality issues are contributing to consumer dissatisfaction and brand erosion [28][30] Brand Management and Strategic Direction - The strategic focus of Helena and La Mer is becoming marginalized within their parent companies, impacting their ability to innovate and respond to market changes [32][34] - Estée Lauder's China division has historically lacked decision-making autonomy, which has hindered its ability to adapt to local market dynamics [32][33] - The shift in focus towards more affordable brands within L'Oréal's portfolio indicates a potential long-term decline for ultra-premium brands like Helena [34][37]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury skincare brands Helena and La Mer are facing significant challenges in reputation and sales during the 618 shopping festival, highlighting a structural crisis in the high-end beauty market in China [3][4][22]. Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Trends - Helena and La Mer ranked high in sales during the 618 festival, with Helena at TOP1 and La Mer at TOP4 on Douyin, and ranked 8th and 6th respectively on Tmall [3]. - Despite strong sales, both brands are experiencing a decline in reputation and sales, with Helena's high-end cosmetics division showing the lowest growth rate in L'Oréal's financial report for 2024 [4]. - La Mer's parent company, Estée Lauder, reported a 7% and 12% year-on-year revenue decline in Q3 and Q4 of 2024, attributing it to decreased sales of La Mer and Estée Lauder [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - High-income consumers are increasingly turning to medical beauty treatments, while lower-income consumers seek affordable alternatives, leading to a perception of ultra-high-end beauty products as "intelligence tax" [5][6]. - Brands are strategically abandoning entry-level consumers and focusing on high-value and mid-tier consumers, often resulting in price increases [9]. - The shift in consumer loyalty is evident, with many former loyal customers of high-end brands now exploring more effective and targeted products from medical beauty brands [12]. Group 3: Pricing and Quality Issues - The pricing structure of luxury brands has become chaotic, with significant discounts available through duty-free channels, undermining the premium image of brands like La Mer and Helena [14][15]. - There are reports of quality control issues, with consumers expressing dissatisfaction over product quality and packaging, which has led to a decline in brand loyalty [17]. - The management of offline sales channels has been criticized for allowing practices like private group buying, which further complicates the pricing and service quality [15][16]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - The strategic positioning of Helena and La Mer in the Chinese market is becoming marginalized, with limited decision-making power for local management affecting product innovation and service quality [19][20]. - Estée Lauder's focus has shifted towards more profitable segments, leaving Helena and La Mer at a disadvantage in terms of resource allocation and market attention [21]. - The overall trend indicates a potential end to the era of high-priced foreign luxury brands relying on storytelling for premium pricing, as consumers increasingly demand efficacy and value [22].