（原标题：他们，将影响你的生意和生活｜国家发改委主任郑栅洁） 关键词："十五五"规划、投资止跌回稳 坚持因地制宜，提高规划质量，加强规划内容审核衔接，把党的二十届四中全会《建议》确定的各项决 策部署和工作要求落到实处。同时，加强经济监测预警分析，完善政策工具箱，加强预期管理，做好今 明两年政策衔接、工作衔接，推动政策靠前发力，实现良好开局。 ——2025年12月12日召开的全国发展和改革工作会议指出 核心关注： 政策扫描： 1.编制实施好"十五五"规划。 2.多措并举促进投资止跌回稳。 3.提振消费要出实招出新招。 4.综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能。 5.进一步全面深化改革。 充分发挥"两重"建设、新增地方政府专项债券等各类政府投资资金作用，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用。 优化实施消费品以旧换新政策，积极扩大服务消费，加快清理消费领域不合理限制性措施，推动消费供 给提质升级。 完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控，大力培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，培育壮大若干新兴支 柱产业，深化拓展"人工智能+"行动，补齐科技服务业短板，完善低空经济产业生态，深入推进数字经 济高质量 ...

建筑装饰 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推动投资止跌回稳，关注节后开复工效果 看好 ——申万宏源建筑双周报（20260209-20260222） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+0.37%，沪深 300 指 数+0.36%，相对收益为+0.01pct。双周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为专 业工程（+2.47%）、生态园林（+1.99%）、设计咨询（+1 ...

西部证券指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用，需结合制定实施"十五 五"规划，在基础设施、城市更新等重点领域深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。2025年，全国固 定资产投资比上年下降3.8%，但中央经济工作会议已明确"推动投资止跌回稳"。从2025Q4单季新签订 单看，部分企业如中国能建、中国电建、中国化学及四川路桥等同比实现正增长。专项债方面，2026年 初累计发行额同比大幅增加。水泥市场方面，近期价格环比回落，预计将进入休市平稳阶段。建筑板块 估值处于历史较低水平。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 基建ETF（159619）跟踪的是中证基建指数（930608），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及基础建设、专业 工程、机械制造等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映基础设施建设相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。指数成分股集中于建筑与工程等相关行业，旨在展现中国基建领域的整体市场动态和投资价值。 ...

李亚飞（黑龙江省哈尔滨市人民政府副秘书长、市发展和改革委员会主任） 王 洋（湖北省武汉市发展和改革委员会主任） 秦春辉（宁夏回族自治区中卫市发展和改革委员会副主任） 投什么 投资是经济社会发展的重要引擎，是经济增长的重要推动力。中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回 稳，有效激发民间投资活力。 当前稳投资工作面临哪些压力挑战？怎样才能立足实际找准把稳投资方向？各地在推动投资见成效有长 效方面积累了哪些好做法？本版邀请来自东北地区、中部地区、西部地区三座城市的发展改革委有关负 责人开展对话，请他们从一线工作的角度，谈一谈对当前投资热点问题的见解和看法。 ——编 者 【对话人】 立足资源禀赋，找准把稳投资方向 问：您所在城市有哪些特色优势产业？近年来的投资重点是什么？ 李亚飞：哈尔滨是东北老工业基地的代表性城市，航空航天、高端装备、绿色食品、特色文旅等都是我 们有较强竞争力的产业。 冰雪旅游是这些年的重点投资方向之一，冰雪大世界四季冰雪项目总投资达23.5亿元，配套设施品质和 服务功能均实现了较大提升。 王洋：武汉是中部地区的中心城市，光电子信息产业"独树一帜"。新能源与智能网联汽车加快发展，生 物医药、北斗等领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a crucial engine for economic and social development, and the central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize and stimulate private investment [1] Group 1: Investment Focus and Challenges - Harbin focuses on industries such as aerospace, high-end equipment, green food, and cultural tourism, with significant investment in ice and snow tourism projects totaling 2.35 billion yuan [2] - Wuhan is advancing in sectors like optoelectronic information, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence, with plans to initiate over 500 industrial projects worth more than 1 billion yuan each by 2025 [4] - Zhongwei is developing its digital information industry, with a total investment exceeding 144 billion yuan for seven large-scale intelligent computing center projects by 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Strategies for Investment Direction - Zhongwei emphasizes leveraging local resources, such as renewable energy, to support its digital information industry, while facing challenges in market and funding [3] - Harbin integrates various project types into a unified management list to enhance construction efficiency and quality, aiming for over 600 billion yuan in industrial project investments [4] - Wuhan aims to deepen its "chain-long + chain-master + chain-creation" integration mechanism to enhance advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [4] Group 3: Addressing Investment Pressures - Harbin faces challenges in investment structure and financial capacity, with private investment confidence affected by declining corporate profits [6] - Wuhan's investment growth is hindered by structural optimization needs and financial pressures, particularly in social welfare projects [6] - Zhongwei's investment challenges include insufficient industrial upgrade momentum and the need for long-term funding for large clean energy projects [6] Group 4: Measures to Stimulate Investment - Harbin is focusing on market demand and consumption upgrades to drive investment, with plans to establish a 10 billion yuan industrial investment fund to support enterprises [7] - Wuhan has implemented a "land immediately under construction" policy to streamline project approvals, significantly reducing the time from signing to production [8] - Zhongwei is enhancing its business environment and providing targeted support to enterprises, aiming for a 27% increase in fixed asset investment by 2025 [8] Group 5: Ensuring Effective and Sustainable Investment - Harbin is collaborating with Shenzhen to create a "fly-in" industrial park model, attracting 716 registered enterprises and advancing 135 cooperative projects [13] - Wuhan plans to improve urban renewal and public welfare, with initiatives to build over 10,000 new housing units and enhance infrastructure [14] - Zhongwei's "Sage Desert" renewable energy project aims to create a composite ecological system, integrating economic, ecological, and social benefits [14]

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a crucial engine for economic and social development, and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to stabilize and stimulate private investment [1] Group 1: Investment Focus and Strategies - Harbin focuses on industries such as aerospace, high-end equipment, green food, and cultural tourism, with significant investment in ice and snow tourism, totaling 2.35 billion yuan [1] - Wuhan is advancing in the optoelectronic information industry, new energy vehicles, biomedicine, and emerging technologies, with plans to initiate over 500 projects worth over 1 billion yuan each by 2025 [2][4] - Zhongwei is developing its digital information industry, with a total investment exceeding 144 billion yuan for seven super-large intelligent computing center projects by 2025 [2] Group 2: Challenges and Responses - Harbin faces challenges in investment structure optimization and insufficient financial resources, compounded by declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [6] - Wuhan's investment growth is hindered by the need for structural optimization and financial pressures, particularly in social welfare projects [6] - Zhongwei encounters challenges in industrial upgrading and funding for large clean energy projects, necessitating innovative mechanisms and precise policies [3][6] Group 3: Future Plans and Initiatives - Harbin plans to accelerate the implementation of over 700 industrial projects with an investment of over 60 billion yuan, focusing on aerospace and high-end equipment [5] - Wuhan aims to implement 2,090 projects worth over 1 billion yuan each in 2026, enhancing the participation of private enterprises in major projects [5][9] - Zhongwei intends to expand effective investment by promoting existing intelligent computing center construction and upgrading traditional industries with clean energy projects [5][9] Group 4: Ensuring Effective and Sustainable Investment - Harbin emphasizes collaboration with state-owned enterprises to ensure effective investment outcomes, with significant projects in power equipment and smart manufacturing [10] - Wuhan focuses on creating a favorable business environment to support project implementation, achieving an 85% rate of same-year project initiation for signed contracts [10] - Zhongwei adopts a "precision drip irrigation" approach to ensure investment resources are effectively allocated to competitive industries, enhancing infrastructure for energy consumption [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant investment potential in China, particularly in traditional industries, infrastructure, and emerging strategic sectors, which could lead to the creation of trillion-yuan markets in the next five years [1][2] - Wang Yiming suggests six strategies to expand investment, including prioritizing major projects, increasing investment in public welfare projects, and enhancing private investment confidence [1] - Chen Yongjie proposes multiple policy recommendations to stimulate private investment, such as broadening investment opportunities, reducing costs, and improving financial support mechanisms [1][2] Group 2 - Zhang Yuxian highlights that current government investments focus on functional aspects, addressing weaknesses and risks rather than merely driving growth [2][3] - Du Yue recommends increasing central budget investments and optimizing financial tools to enhance infrastructure investment and attract private capital for major projects [2][3] - Emphasis is placed on supporting local governments in planning and implementing significant projects that align with national needs and local capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies is essential, with a focus on government debt management as a priority for fiscal work in 2026 [1] Group 1 - Experts emphasize the need to combine "investment in material" and "investment in people" to stimulate investment recovery [1] - The goal is to promote a stabilization in investment trends [1]

Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a significant decline in growth observed in the second half of 2025, where the investment growth rate fell to -6.2% in Q3, down 8.2 percentage points from Q2[12] - Despite the decline, capital formation growth remained positive, with a Q3 growth rate of 2.3%, only slightly down from 3.2% in Q2[12] - Electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries has shown a recovery since July, indicating resilient investment momentum[10] Policy Support - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October 2025, expected to support approximately 7 trillion yuan in total investment across over 2,300 projects[41] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for investment stabilization in 2026, with clear directives for increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[41] Economic Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive significant project approvals and construction in 2026, potentially accelerating investment growth[10] - Local government leadership changes in 2026 may further emphasize economic stability, historically correlating with a rebound in economic growth prior to national congresses[10] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "front-loaded" approach in 2026, with a rapid issuance of new special bonds anticipated in the first half of the year[46] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, actively supporting economic growth in the first half of 2026, similar to actions taken in 2025[51]

Group 1: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to deepen state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned economy, improving modern enterprise systems, and enhancing state asset supervision efficiency [1][2] - Key areas of reform include functional, structural, and institutional reforms, with a focus on better utilizing market forces to fulfill national strategic missions and improving the evaluation system for SOEs [2][3] Group 2: Urban and Rural Resident Income Increase Plan - The central economic work conference proposed a new income increase plan for urban and rural residents, transitioning from a focus on low-income groups to a broader approach covering all residents [3][4] - The plan aims to enhance consumer spending and stabilize the middle-income group while addressing income disparities and illegal income [3][4] Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference highlighted the need to stabilize investment, suggesting an increase in central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds [6][7] - Investment growth has been declining due to various factors, including real estate market adjustments and competition, with fixed asset investment down by 2.6% year-on-year [6][7] Group 4: Education Resource Allocation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests improving education resource allocation in response to demographic changes, particularly by expanding ordinary high school enrollment to address the shortage of high school places [8][9] - The number of ordinary high school enrollments is set to exceed 10 million in 2024, with a recorded admission rate of over 60% [8][9] Group 5: Long-Term Care Insurance Implementation - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is set to be implemented nationwide in 2026 after a decade of trials, aiming to cover nearly 3 billion people and provide equal protection for all disabled individuals [16][17] - The LTCI is expected to inject significant funds into the market, potentially exceeding 100 billion annually, thus stimulating the long-term care service industry [17] Group 6: Birth Policy Optimization - The central economic work conference stressed the need for a comprehensive optimization of birth policies to stabilize the declining birth rate, with a focus on financial support and service system improvements [18][19] - New measures include expanding maternity insurance coverage to flexible workers and enhancing public services for early childhood care [19][20]