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山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251113
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 11:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with gold underperforming silver. SHFE gold closed up 1.56%, and SHFE silver closed up 5.48%. The short - term core logic includes that the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's rate cut still remains. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold and London gold showed different changes. Domestic SHFE gold and gold T + D both increased. For example, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE gold - London gold and the gold - silver ratio changed to varying degrees. For instance, the SHFE gold - London gold basis increased by 194% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold, SHFE gold, and gold T + D positions and inventories changed. For example, the SHFE gold main contract position decreased by 9.72% compared with the previous week [2]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds and the position of the SPDR gold ETF decreased slightly [2]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Gold**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 27.55% [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver and London silver prices changed slightly, while domestic SHFE silver and silver T + D prices increased significantly. For example, the SHFE silver main contract closed at 12,588 yuan/kg, up 4.27% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE silver - London silver and the SHFE silver main contract basis changed greatly [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Positions and inventories of Comex silver, SHFE silver, and silver T + D changed. For example, the SHFE silver main contract position increased by 30.16% compared with the previous week [6]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds increased, while the position of the iShare silver ETF decreased slightly [6]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Silver**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 7.67% [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%, and M2 increased by 0.01% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Interest Rate Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 1.27%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.72%, and the US bond spread (3 - month to 10 - year) increased by 27.59% [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US - EU interest rate spread, US - China interest rate spread, CPI, and economic growth data showed different changes [10]. - **Reserve and Ratio Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased by 2.15%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 1.43%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.08% [12].