投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月22日16时34分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位上行，沪金主力收涨2.10%，沪银主力收涨6.06%，铂金主力收涨6.99%，钯金主力收涨涨7%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，普京在年度 媒体活动中坚持俄方停战要求，称欧盟的"抢劫"失败了。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for precious metals is weak with fluctuations, the medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation, and the long - term outlook is a step - by - step upward trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.92%, Shanghai silver down 0.68%, platinum down 1.30%, and palladium up 0.47%. [1] - **Core Logic** - **Short - term Risk Aversion**: The risk aversion caused by the trade war has subsided, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of interest rate cuts remains. [1] - **Hedging Attribute**: Putin met with Trump's special envoy and Kushner to discuss possible ways to end the Ukraine war. The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations were announced. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions still exist. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams increased the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. The Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity changed little, but the government shutdown suppressed demand in many places. US consumer spending in September increased moderately, and inflation reached the fastest growth rate in nearly a year and a half. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December to soar by nearly 90%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. On the demand side, the hydrogen energy industry is listed as a strategic emerging industry, which forms a long - term strong expectation for the demand for platinum - based catalysts. Palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [6] - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF had a slight increase in positions. The recent explicit inventory of silver increased slightly. [6] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are 658.6185 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.65% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.51, the US dollar index is 99.11. [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: There are various data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and other aspects. [11][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with platinum and palladium soaring and then falling back. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.14%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 3.35%, the main contract of platinum closed up 6.25%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 1.53% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [1]. - The results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still remain [1]. - Speeches by Federal Reserve officials have increased the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market expects the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December to soar to around 80% [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. The hydrogen energy industry is expected to drive long - term strong demand for platinum - based catalysts, while palladium faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, strong platinum and weak palladium in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Recently, the net long position of CFTC silver has been reduced again, and the iShare silver ETF has slightly increased its position. The visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.14%, Comex gold main contract closed at $4196.10 per ounce, up 0.74% from the previous day and 2.89% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4139.60 per ounce, up 0.32% from the previous day and 0.31% from the previous week [1][2]. - **Price and Related Data**: Domestic prices, such as the main contract of Shanghai Gold on the SHFE and gold T + D on the SGE, also showed certain increases. There were changes in basis, spreads, and ratios. For example, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai Gold was - 4.03 yuan/gram, and the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 78.88, down 3.31% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold positions were 485,788 hands, and Shanghai Gold main contract positions increased by 3.70% from the previous day and 27.73% from the previous week. Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week, and the SPDR gold ETF decreased by 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold futures company members on the SHFE, the top 5 totaled 67,680.00, and among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,510.00 [3]. - **Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 3.35%, Comex silver main contract closed at $53.76 per ounce, up 3.88% from the previous day and 5.28% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.48 per ounce, up 2.49% from the previous day and 0.54% from the previous week [1][5]. - **Price and Related Data**: Domestic prices, such as the main contract of Shanghai Silver on the SHFE and silver T + D on the SGE, also increased. There were changes in basis and spreads. For example, the basis of the main contract of Shanghai Silver was 20 yuan/kg [5]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver positions were 172,415 hands, and Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased by 11.09% from the previous day and 22.42% from the previous week. The visible inventory of silver decreased slightly, with a total visible inventory of 41,736 tons, down 0.09% from the previous day and 0.61% from the previous week [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver futures company members on the SHFE, the top 5 totaled 110,211.00, and among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 58,699.00 [6]. - **Strategy**: For silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,061.83 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week [7]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.37%, down 2.07% from the previous day and 3.27% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.22% from the previous day and 0.54% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.47, up 30.56% from the previous week [7]. - **Inflation Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and the core CPI (year - on - year) is also 3.00% [9]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30% from the previous period; the GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, up 4.40% from the previous period [9]. - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous period; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million, up 1.23 million from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys, as well as central bank gold reserves and related ratios [9][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with gold underperforming silver. SHFE gold closed up 1.56%, and SHFE silver closed up 5.48%. The short - term core logic includes that the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's rate cut still remains. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold and London gold showed different changes. Domestic SHFE gold and gold T + D both increased. For example, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE gold - London gold and the gold - silver ratio changed to varying degrees. For instance, the SHFE gold - London gold basis increased by 194% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold, SHFE gold, and gold T + D positions and inventories changed. For example, the SHFE gold main contract position decreased by 9.72% compared with the previous week [2]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds and the position of the SPDR gold ETF decreased slightly [2]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Gold**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 27.55% [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver and London silver prices changed slightly, while domestic SHFE silver and silver T + D prices increased significantly. For example, the SHFE silver main contract closed at 12,588 yuan/kg, up 4.27% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE silver - London silver and the SHFE silver main contract basis changed greatly [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Positions and inventories of Comex silver, SHFE silver, and silver T + D changed. For example, the SHFE silver main contract position increased by 30.16% compared with the previous week [6]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds increased, while the position of the iShare silver ETF decreased slightly [6]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Silver**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 7.67% [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%, and M2 increased by 0.01% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Interest Rate Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 1.27%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.72%, and the US bond spread (3 - month to 10 - year) increased by 27.59% [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US - EU interest rate spread, US - China interest rate spread, CPI, and economic growth data showed different changes [10]. - **Reserve and Ratio Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased by 2.15%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 1.43%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.08% [12].