中化新网讯 近日，多数投资银行与美国能源信息署(EIA)预测，受持续供过于求影响，2026年平均油价 将低于每桶60美元，主因全球需求增长疲软及OPEC+与非OPEC+产油国供应增加。 EIA最新短期能源展望预计，2026年全球石油库存持续上升，布伦特原油一季度均价54美元、全年55美 元，较上月上调3美元，因中国战略储备采购及俄石油制裁加码，但市场基本面仍令其对明年油价持悲 观态度。 Macquarie集团预计明年油价走低，但对俄制裁、委内瑞拉局势及美国冬季天气寒冷或减缓油价跌幅， OPEC+或需在2026年下半年减产稳市。ABN AMRO银行指出，原油需求疲软与供应增加导致供过于 求，中国储备采购和地缘不确定性虽未使油价大跌，但过剩将贯穿2026年，预计布伦特油价一季度58美 元，年中52美元，年底50美元，全年均值55美元。SEB银行认为油价下行趋势明显，委内瑞拉局势紧张 带来的地缘溢价难抵供应增加与供过于求的看跌背景。 11月底路透社调查显示，供过于求是2026年原油市场关键，美国基准油价或低于60美元，WTI均价59美 元，布伦特62.23美元(低于10月63.15美元)，高盛更预计WTI均价53美 ...

美国正计划大举提高能源产量。 当地时间12月5日，美国总统特朗普签署一项参议院此前通过的决议，使其成为法律，以撤销部分阿拉斯加北 坡国家石油储备区的钻探限制。这是他旨在提高美国能源产量计划的一部分。 展望全球原油市场，国际能源署（IEA）在日前发布的报告中指出，2026年油市普遍预期的"供应过剩"规模或 达400万桶/日。摩根大通警告称，2026年布伦特油价或跌至58美元/桶，石油行业将迎艰难时期。 特朗普最新签署 特朗普一直对开发阿拉斯加的石油储备很感兴趣，这是他旨在提高美国能源产量和减少进口的更广泛计划的一 部分。 今年以来，全球原油市场的主旋律是供过于求，且这一局面或将在未来一年可能持续。尽管需求表现好于预 期，但全球原油供应仍在不断攀升。 12月6日，据央视新闻客户端，当地时间12月5日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普当日签署一项参议院此前通过 的决议，使其成为法律，以撤销部分阿拉斯加北坡国家石油储备区的钻探限制。 EIA的数据显示，美国页岩油生产商预计将在今年12月达到创纪录的产量水平。 据悉，这些限制原本旨在保护环境敏感区域免受油气钻探的破坏。 另外，全球海上油轮库存已超10亿桶，为2023年以来最高 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of the crude oil market are bearish, and the Israel-Palestine situation is easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation may provide upward momentum for oil prices, but in the context of oversupply, rising oil prices will be dragged down by inventory build-up expectations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $58.15, closing at $58.3, with a high of $58.93, a low of $57.78, a daily increase of 0.05%, and a trading volume of 21.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.33, closing at $62.47, with a high of $63.04, a low of $61.79, a daily increase of 0.13%, and a trading volume of 33.12 million lots. SC's opening price was 446.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 443.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 447.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 439.2 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.14%, and a trading volume of 5.47 million lots [6] - **Supply Situation**: OPEC+ and countries like Brazil and Guyana have continuously increased production. The crude oil market will remain oversupplied in Q4 2025, with an expected inventory build-up of 2.55 million barrels per day, 320,000 barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. The inventory build-up rate in 2026 is expected to increase from 1.87 million barrels per day to 2.09 million barrels per day [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short on rebounds and focus on reverse arbitrage [7] Group 5: Industry News - OPEC Secretary-General: By 2050, oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure [8] - Saudi Aramco CEO: Without increased investment, the world may face an oil shortage in the future [8] - US Treasury Secretary: Hopes Japan will stop importing Russian energy [8] - Sources: Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports [8] - Trump: Modi promised that India will stop buying Russian oil, but it will take time [8] - Bank of America: If OPEC+ increases production while trade tensions escalate, Brent crude prices may fall below $50 per barrel [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][11][18]

Gold Market - Gold experienced a sharp decline after reaching a new high of $4180, with a maximum pullback of nearly $90, but ultimately closed up 0.77% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely to continue interest rate cuts this month due to a weakening job market, despite ongoing concerns about persistent inflation [2] - Analyst Peng Cheng from Bailihau believes that the U.S. government shutdown will impact the economy, prompting the Fed to accelerate rate cuts to prevent systemic risks, potentially ending the balance sheet reduction [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating that while bulls are in control, divergences are emerging [2] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline slightly, but the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, although the long-term outlook remains pessimistic [4] - Year-to-date, Brent crude futures have dropped over 15%, while WTI crude futures have fallen over 16%, indicating a supply glut with limited demand growth [4] - OPEC+ has agreed to a slight increase in oil production in November, adding 137,000 barrels per day, which will gradually reverse the 1.65 million barrels per day cut agreed upon in April 2023 [4] - The global oil market is expected to face significant oversupply until excess capacity is absorbed, making it unlikely to achieve balance in the short term [4] Copper Market - Copper's daily chart shows a large bearish candle, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, with a high probability of continued decline [6] - The price has broken below long-term moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, with short-term resistance around the $5 level [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown consecutive small bullish candles, likely adjusting from previous large bearish movements [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates a double top retest, suggesting a high probability of continued decline, with resistance around the 47350 level [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI dropped 5.23% to $57.84, Brent fell 4.8% to $62.09, and SC declined 2.68% to 453.7 yuan/barrel. Trump's tariff statement affected the market, and prices rebounded after a sharp drop [6]. - Supply - Demand Situation: OPEC+ and other countries' production is increasing. In Q4 2025, the market will be oversupplied, with an expected inventory build of 255,000 barrels per day (up 32,000 barrels per day from last month). In 2026, the inventory build rate is raised from 187,000 to 209,000 barrels per day [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Given the bearish fundamentals and eased Israel - Palestine situation, short on rallies and consider reverse arbitrage. Monitor the Russia - Ukraine situation for potential price increases, but inventory build expectations will limit upward movement [7]. Group 3: Industry News and Forecasts - Deutsche Bank Forecast: Brent crude is expected to reach $61 per barrel by the end of the year and then fall to $55 in 2026 due to inventory increases [10] - Import Data: In Q3, crude oil and metal ore imports increased by 4.9% and 10.1% year - on - year respectively [10] - Geopolitical News: US President Trump is going to Israel and Egypt to sign a peace agreement to end the Gaza war [10]

Group 1 - OPEC+ plans to discuss the possibility of accelerating production increases at the meeting on October 5, considering a rapid release of the previously committed supply increase of 1.66 million barrels per day over three months, approximately 500,000 barrels per month [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global crude oil supply will exceed demand by an average of 3.33 million barrels per day in 2026, marking a historic annual surplus [1] - Recent large purchases of crude oil by China to fill its strategic reserves have somewhat alleviated the accumulation of Western inventories [1] Group 2 - Earlier this month, OPEC+ announced an increase of only 137,000 barrels per day, which was below market expectations, raising questions about when the remaining production will return to the market [2] - Analysts indicate that there may be uncertainties in the implementation of the production increase among OPEC+ member countries due to previous overproduction and financial pressures or international sanctions affecting some producers [2] - While the production increase plan may help Saudi Arabia and its allies regain market share, it could also exacerbate the risk of global crude oil oversupply in the next two years [2]