Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 10, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, with the weight of fundamental factors decreasing periodically [6]. - The escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices provide cost - side support for the polyolefin market. The expected reduction in raw material imports and unexpected device maintenance give polyolefin prices upward momentum in the short - term [6]. - Due to frequent geopolitical risks and volatile energy prices, polyolefins will operate at a high level under strong cost support [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, plastics and PP were locked at the daily limit after opening. L2605 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, up 449 yuan/ton (5.99%), with a trading volume of 498,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 1,367 lots to 410,391 lots. PP2605 closed at 8,034 yuan/ton, up 454 yuan (5.99%), with a decrease in open interest of 13,379 lots to 480,000 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - On March 9, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.05%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 865,000 tons [7]. - PE market prices continued to rise. LLDPE prices in North China were 9,200 - 10,000 yuan/ton, in East China were 9,500 - 10,080 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,700 - 10,200 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 9,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading volume decreased [7]. - After PP futures opened, they were locked at the daily limit. The spot market was bullish, and downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted due to supply - side reduction expectations. However, due to price fluctuations and the daily limit, some producers raised prices, others suspended sales, and most traders suspended quoting. Downstream buyers were mostly cautious, and the market trading was average [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market trading core has shifted from the fundamental aspects of polyolefins to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense or further escalates, polyolefin prices will gain phased upward momentum, but the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium is uncertain, and the market is volatile [19]. - The pulp market is expected to undergo low - level wide - range shock adjustments in the short term, as the high inventory at ports still needs to be consumed, despite the gradually increasing trading volume in the downstream market [56]. - The soda ash market is in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Although there is short - term support from macro - sentiment improvement and energy price increases, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance will continue. In the short term, the rebound may strengthen, but in the long - term, there is downward pressure on prices [100][120]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". In the short term, there may be opportunities for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the improvement of real estate sales data is crucial for the upward movement of glass prices [122]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the futures market, the plastic main - continuous contract rose 16.58% from 6630 to 7691, and the polypropylene main - continuous contract rose 17.94% from 6680 to 7800. In the spot market, prices of various polyolefin products increased, with LLDPE rising 10.53% - 17.14%, LDPE rising 17.37% - 28.09%, etc. [7] - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz have affected polyolefins. On one hand, it impacts upstream energy costs, and on the other hand, it affects direct imports, with PE being more affected than PP. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, polyolefin prices will gain upward momentum, but due to the uncertainty of geopolitical risk premiums, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or shock - based approach [19]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - **Petrochemical Maintenance Statistics**: Polypropylene production decreased by 1.18 tons compared to last week, a 1.54% decline, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.16%. Polyethylene production decreased by 0.87 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.04%. The maintenance loss of polyethylene increased by 0.62 tons [21][22]. - **Production Profit**: Coal - based polyolefin production had positive profits, with coal - made PE having an average gross profit of 400.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 66.37 yuan/ton. Oil - made polyolefin production was in a loss state, with oil - made PE's loss expanding to - 905.18 yuan/ton. PDH - made PP's cost increased, and the profit decreased [25][26][27]. - **Petrochemical Inventory Changes**: After the Spring Festival in 2026, the inventory of the two major oil companies reached 940,000 tons, and as of March 6, it was 820,000 tons. The commercial inventory of polypropylene and polyethylene increased significantly after the festival, and the de - stocking inflection point may occur around mid - March [33]. - **Downstream Operating Levels**: The operating levels of PE and PP downstream industries generally improved. For PE, the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 17 percentage points to 45%, and for PP, the operating rate of plastic weaving products increased by 6 percentage points to 43% [39][40]. Pulp 3.1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5250 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decline from last week. The average prices of imported pulp varieties mostly decreased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market will mainly undergo low - level wide - range shock adjustments due to high port inventories and limited demand [56]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volumes from Major Producing Countries**: In December, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 14.8% month - on - month but decreased by 2.3% year - on - year; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp increased by 14.9% month - on - month but decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [57]. - **Pulp Import Volumes**: In December, China's pulp import volume was 3.11 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. - **Pulp Inventory Situation**: As of the end of December, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous pulp increased by 1.6% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year; the inventory days of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 12.4% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year. As of the end of February, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by about [72]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of downstream base paper were mostly stable, with only a slight increase in the average price of cultural paper. The market was in a wait - and - see state, and demand growth was limited [56]. Soda Ash 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: This week, the main soda ash contract (SA605) first oscillated at the bottom and then rose, with a weekly increase of 4.02%. On March 6, the position was 1.1448 million lots, with a daily increase of 30,588 lots [96]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash market may have a stronger rebound. If it can stabilize above 1200 points and break through further, the upward range will be opened. In the long - term, due to weak fundamentals, there is downward pressure on prices [100][101]. 3.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Soda Ash Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash was 86.77% this week, a 1.73% increase. The weekly output increased to 807,000 tons, a 2.03% increase. Although some factories were under maintenance, the overall supply remained high [102]. - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of March 5, the inventory of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 1.9472 million tons, a 2.79% increase. The inventory continued to rise to a historical high, but the growth rate slowed down [112]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: The spot price of soda ash remained stable this week, with only a slight increase in the national average price. The basis narrowed or turned negative, and the cost increase provided some support [116]. - **Soda Ash Downstream**: The demand for soda ash was mainly rigid, with limited recovery in downstream demand. The demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, and the recovery of light - soda downstream was slow [119]. Glass 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: This week, the main glass contract (SA605) first declined and then rose, with a 2.35% increase to 1087 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 05 positive spread widened to 212 yuan/ton [121]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, there may be opportunities for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the improvement of real estate sales data is crucial for the upward movement of glass prices [122]. 3.2. Glass Market Situation - **Glass Supply**: As of March 5, the operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.19%, a 0.92% increase. The weekly output was 1.0397 million tons, a 0.17% increase. The overall supply was at a low level, and the net change in production capacity was small [125]. - **Glass Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million weight boxes, a 4.77% increase, and the inventory pressure increased significantly [127]. - **Glass Spot**: The spot price of float glass remained stable at a low level, with small regional fluctuations. The price was restricted by high inventory and weak demand, and the downward space was limited [130]. - **Glass Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's float glass import volume was 14,600 tons, a 5.59% decrease, and the export volume was 87,000 tons, a 2.59% increase [136]. - **Glass Upstream**: The soda ash industry had high supply and high inventory, with an increase in production and a rise in inventory. The industry was in an over - supply pattern, and there was downward pressure on prices [137]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased by 4.7 percentage points to 29.3%. The order days of glass deep - processing enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The production and sales of the automotive industry decreased year - on - year, and the real estate industry's completion and sales areas decreased year - on - year [141][143][147].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 6, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy Chemical Research Team Members: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7217 | 7236 | 7300 | 7077 | 139 | 1.96 | 1960 | -248 | | Plastic 2605 | 7350 | 7355 | 7529 | 7140 | 262 | 3.69 | 381697 | -55231 | | Plastic 2609 | 7250 | 7270 | 7354 | 7095 | 169 | 2.38 | 97714 | -5101 | | PP2701 | 7158 | 7104 | 7197 | 6970 | 92 | 1.31 | 4321 | 61 | | PP2605 | 7450 | 7506 | 7646 | 7188 | 376 | 5.27 | 464543 | -38423 | | PP2609 | 7243 | 7226 | 7326 | 7046 | 145 | 2.05 | 136754 | 2123 | [5] Spot Market Quotes - On March 5, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (2.94%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 820,000 tons. - PE market prices mostly increased. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,300 - 7,800 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,350 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,700 - 8,000 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 7,340 - 7,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from the previous working day. - The PP futures market continued to operate strongly at a high level, supporting market sentiment. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,350 - 7,500 yuan/ton. [7] 4. Market Analysis and Outlook - The trading core of the current market has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily. - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has further escalated. The high - level crude oil price will support the polyolefin futures market from the cost side. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane, which will compress profits and lead to more - than - expected plant maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain short - term upward momentum. - The spot - end price center continued to rise. Downstream buyers replenished stocks due to fear of price increases, and traders stopped selling. - There were frequent and repeated news about the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz during the day, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly with the news. The sustainability of geopolitical risk premium faces great uncertainty. [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7217 | 7236 | 7300 | 7077 | 139 | 1.96 | 1960 | -248 | | Plastic 2605 | 7350 | 7355 | 7529 | 7140 | 262 | 3.69 | 381697 | -55231 | | Plastic 2609 | 7250 | 7270 | 7354 | 7095 | 169 | 2.38 | 97714 | -5101 | | PP2701 | 7158 | 7104 | 7197 | 6970 | 92 | 1.31 | 4321 | 61 | | PP2605 | 7450 | 7506 | 7646 | 7188 | 376 | 5.27 | 464543 | -38423 | | PP2609 | 7243 | 7226 | 7326 | 7046 | 145 | 2.05 | 136754 | 2123 | [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed at 7355 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan/ton (3.69%), with a trading volume of 1.38 million lots and an open interest decrease of 55,231 lots to 381,697 lots. PP2605 closed at 7506 yuan/ton, up 376 yuan, a 5.27% increase, with an open interest decrease of 38,423 lots to 464,500 lots [6]. - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily [6]. - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has further escalated. The high crude oil price will provide cost support for the polyolefin market. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane, which will compress profits and lead to more-than-expected plant maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain upward momentum in the short term [6]. - The spot price has continued to rise. Downstream buyers have replenished stocks due to fear of price increases, and traders have withheld supplies [6]. - The market still has expectations for further price increases, and the focus is highly concentrated on the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which will determine the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium [6]. Group 4: Industry News - On March 4, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 4.49%. The inventory at the same time last year was 825,000 tons [7]. - Most PE market prices increased. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,150 - 7,800 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,250 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,550 - 7,850 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6,980 - 7,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 375 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories rushed to buy, and the demand enthusiasm increased significantly. The actual orders of production enterprises continued to be at a premium in the auction, driving the transaction center of propylene to rise significantly, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was active [7]. - The PP futures market continued to run strongly at a high level, supporting market sentiment. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,350 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7]. Group 5: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][18] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][14][16][18]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] - Date: March 3, 2026 [2] - Core Viewpoint: In 2026, although there are plans to put a large amount of new production capacity of polyethylene and polypropylene into operation in China, the release of production capacity is highly concentrated in the second half of the year, making the market in the first and second quarters relatively in a vacuum period of capacity expansion. In the short term, the supply trends of the varieties are differentiated. The supply - side pressure of polypropylene is alleviated stage - by - stage, while the supply of polyethylene tends to be loose driven by the release of new production capacity and the reduction of overhauls. The downstream resumption of work is slow, and there are still macro - restricting factors. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the inflection point of inventory reduction may occur around mid - March. The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics. [7][68] Market Review - In the first quarter, the amplitude of the plastic and polypropylene disk was nearly 10%, and the center of the disk moved upward. In January, the plastic reached a high of 7139 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and polypropylene reached 6959 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk continued the cost - driven logic. In February, as crude oil gave back the geopolitical risk premium, the disk drive gradually returned to the weak industrial reality. After the Spring Festival, affected by the cost support pushed up by geopolitical conflicts, polyolefins opened higher but quickly fell back due to high inventory and weak reality. [16] - In the spot market, the monthly average price of LLDPE was 6863 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.41%. The monthly average price of LDPE was 8678 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.40%. Most prices of HDPE varieties softened. The monthly average price of PP raffia in East China was 6596.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.87%. The average market price of copolymer was 6790.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.41%. [17] Fundamental Analysis Capacity and Production - In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity was 543 tons, and 463 tons/year had been put into production by November. The new PP production capacity was 455.5 tons, and most of them were put into production in the first three quarters. In 2026, the planned new PE production capacity is 603 tons, highly concentrated in the second half of the year. The planned new PP production capacity is about 560 tons, also mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. [18][28] - From January to February 2026, the production of polypropylene and polyethylene showed a differentiated trend. In January, the domestic PP production was 3.3673 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. In February, the production further decreased to 3.0682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.88% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The production of polyethylene increased. In January, it was 2.8457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.19%. In February, it increased slightly to 2.8354 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% and a year - on - year increase of 13.75%. [19] Import and Export - In 2025, the import dependence of PE dropped to 30.58%, and that of PP further dropped to 8.44%. The PP trade pattern is gradually changing to net export. The export volume in 2025 increased by 28.91% year - on - year. India's cancellation of the mandatory BIS certification for polyolefin products brings short - term structural opportunities for China's polypropylene export. [31][32] Inventory - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the inventory of the two major oil companies reached 940,000 tons, an increase of 480,000 tons compared with that before the festival. As of the end of February, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene was 1.078 million tons, an increase of 437,400 tons compared with that before the festival. The social sample inventory of polyethylene was 579,700 tons, an increase of 236,000 tons compared with that before the festival. The inflection point of inventory reduction may occur around mid - March. [38] Cost and Profit - Coal: During the Spring Festival, the international thermal coal price continued to rise. The domestic coal price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term. The average profit of coal - made PE in February was 9.20 yuan/ton, and the average profit of coal - made PP increased, with an average value of 205.2 yuan/ton. [42] - Crude oil: During the Spring Festival, the international oil price rose sharply. The profit of oil - made PP was - 542.44 yuan/ton, and the production loss of oil - made PE expanded to - 637.06 yuan/ton. [43] - Propane: After the Spring Festival, the propane price is expected to rise. The profitability of PDH - made PP production enterprises increased. [43] Downstream Industry - PE downstream: After the Spring Festival, the overall start - up rate of the PE downstream industry increased slightly, but was still restricted by the arrival of employees. The raw material inventory is expected to increase slightly. [48] - PP downstream: The average start - up rate of the PP downstream industry increased significantly after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the resumption of work and production of the PP downstream industry will continue to accelerate next week, and the start - up rate will continue to rise. [51] White Goods - In March 2026, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines was 39.11 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. The export production schedule continued to shrink. Since January 1, 2026, CBAM has entered the substantial stage, which will increase the cost of home appliance export enterprises. [58][59] Outlook - The conflict between the US and Iran affects polyolefins through upstream energy cost disturbances and direct import impacts. PE is more affected than PP. [67] - In the short term, geopolitical and emotional support is strong, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or oscillatory thinking and be vigilant against the risk of decline after the pulse - type market. [69]