Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil). OPEC+ production increase and demand decline after the peak season, along with geopolitical factors, put pressure on the market. But with oil prices near the April low and net long positions at a low level, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil is still weakly oscillating. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today. The weekly construction rate decreased, demand was affected by weather, and the market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillated narrowly, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed to a slight premium [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially for in - transit crude oil. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil) [1]. - OPEC+ production increase and post - peak - season demand decline, along with geopolitical factors, brought supply - demand pressure. But the downward momentum may slow this week as oil prices are near the April low and net long positions are low [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost end with a weakly oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose due to geopolitical easing and other factors [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, with high arbitrage cargo volume from the West to Singapore and the effect of refinery operation recovery still to be observed [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near - month contracts relatively stronger. The weekly construction rate decreased, and demand was affected by cold in the north and rain in the south [3]. - The 10 - month demand is expected to be weaker than expected, and the commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillated narrowly, with far - month contracts under pressure. Supply increased slightly this week [3]. - Chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Crude oil supply is in a mixed state of immediate increase and geopolitical risks, with a clear inventory accumulation process. Oil prices have limited upside space, and a protective strategy combining short futures and call options is recommended [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, showing a short-term strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil has abundant supply and weak demand, mainly following cost fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt market has increased pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm, with a decline in overall inventory levels. The subsequent demand is boosted by seasonal factors, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas has a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with an expected increase in overall consumption. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly from the previous bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply is in a multi - empty intertwined state with inventory accumulation of 2.4% in the third quarter, including 0.5% for crude oil and 5.5% for refined oil. The inventory structure has shifted to upstream crude oil. A protective strategy is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Middle East shipments are high, but geopolitical factors cause concerns about supply reduction, supporting the FU trend [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [2]. Asphalt - Pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, with a decrease in refinery and social inventories. The October production plan has a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Import arrivals in the South China region have decreased due to typhoons, and overall consumption is expected to increase. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]