Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of cotton provide some support. On the demand side, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" as downstream industries resume work, and cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level in the same period over the years. The USDA's annual report has lowered the global cotton production forecast by 3%, with a reduction in US and Chinese production by 9%. The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly tight, and there may be a tight balance if consumption continues to increase. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will still have some support in the short term, and investors can consider building long positions at low prices but not chasing high prices [6]. - For the cotton market, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mostly range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. For trading strategies, in the single - side trading, investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high; in arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts are 15875, 15545, and 15595 respectively, with price increases of 100, 30, and 65. Their trading volumes are 3,239, 536,896, and 145,167 hands respectively, showing decreases of 2667, 153899, and 49194 hands compared with the previous period. The open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts is 16,007, 741,203, and 237,471 respectively, with changes of 678, - 2473, and 7727. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts, the closing prices are 0, 21735, and 21575 respectively. The trading volume of CY01 is 0, while CY05 and CY09 have trading volumes of 16137 and 34 hands respectively, with decreases of 4405 and 9 hands. The open interest of CY01 is 0, and CY05 and CY09 have open interests of 14724 and 63 respectively, with changes of - 248 and 2 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 115; Cot A is 75.75 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M is 73.98, up 0.70; the price of polyester staple fiber is 7450, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber is 12900, up 50. The prices of IndexC32S CY, Indian S - 6, and pure polyester yarn T32S remain unchanged, and the price of viscose yarn R30S is also unchanged [2]. - **Price Difference**: In cotton inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is 330, up 70; the 5 - 9 spread is - 50, down 35; the 9 - 1 spread is - 280, down 35. In yarn inter - month spreads, the 1 - 5 spread is - 21735, down 155; the 5 - 9 spread is 160, up 20; the 9 - 1 spread is 21575, up 135. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 is (15875), down 100; CY05 - CF05 is 6190, up 125; CY09 - CF09 is 5980, up 70. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread is 3903, up 315; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread is 2906, up 261; the internal - external yarn spread is 5, down 41 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On March 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1593 yuan/ton·km, up 1.59% month - on - month. Due to increased transportation demand and relatively insufficient transportation capacity resources, the index rose slightly, and it is expected to show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term. In January 2026, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 0.88 billion square meters, up 1.51% year - on - year and down 7.259% month - on - month; clothing output was 5.49 billion pieces, up 20.3% year - on - year and down 7.02% month - on - month. The decline in textile and clothing output in January was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, with enterprises arranging employees' return home in advance and reducing production line speed. In December 2025/26, India's cotton yarn (HS:5205) export volume was 10.14 tons, up 5.01% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month. From August to December 2025, India's cotton yarn export volume was 45.6 tons, with 19.48 tons exported to Bangladesh (down 117.06% year - on - year, accounting for 42.94%) and 7.42 tons exported to China (up 94.76% year - on - year, accounting for 16.35%). In 2025, India's cumulative cotton yarn export volume was 108.19 tons, up 0.18% year - on - year [4][5]. - **Trading Logic**: The current cotton fundamentals are supportive. Demand is expected to improve with the resumption of downstream production, and cotton sales are progressing rapidly. The USDA's report has lowered global cotton production, and the supply - demand situation may become tighter. The US cotton signing situation has also improved. It is expected that cotton will have short - term support, and investors can build long positions at low prices but not chase high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In single - side trading, it is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Investors can consider building long positions at low prices and not chasing high. In arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall quotation of the pure - cotton yarn market is stable with a slight increase. Low - count yarn and rotor - spun yarn face substitution pressure from imported yarn, and their sales are slightly sluggish. Although cotton yarn sales are good and spinning mills' inventories have decreased, due to the rising price of raw material cotton, the increase in yarn prices cannot fully cover the cost increase, and some spinning mills with low cotton inventories still face profit challenges. The production and sales of all - cotton grey fabrics are stable, with sufficient inventory of conventional varieties and continuous sales. The inquiry situation in the regional market and factories continues, and the seasonal orders are acceptable. Currently, the on - machine orders are sufficient, but the follow - up new orders are insufficient. Only the orders for thin fabrics in export sales are in good demand, and clothing orders are average. Currently, fabric mills maintain procurement based on orders, and their cotton yarn inventory is maintained at about 10 - 15 days [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: On January 19, 2026, for the option contract CF605C14600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 334.00, down 16.9%, with an implied volatility of 13.3%. For CF605C14200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 511.00, down 17.7%, with an implied volatility of 11.3%. For CF605P13800.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14545.00, the closing price was 60.00, down 34.1%, with an implied volatility of 11.2%. The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, and the volatility has increased slightly compared with the previous day [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The previous day, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13][14]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external cotton price difference under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][19][25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market is dominated by a weak trend, and the tight - balance logic temporarily fails. It is advisable to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session and then opened, closing at 132,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased to 531,700 lots, and the open interest decreased to 329,800 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio increased slightly month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GME was 33,787 lots, a decrease of 327 lots from the previous day. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 144,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Last week, raw material prices in the market generally increased. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 47.29% (-2.21%). Except for lithium mica, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [3] Demand - The production schedule of the lithium - battery downstream in February decreased month - on - month. This week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with strong production and sales and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of the four - location samples by SMM decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month. This week, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, and the total inventory days increased to 30 days, with an increase in inventory days at each link [3] Macro Policy - On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost - support center in the long term. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].