1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].